741–750 of 913 posts
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Well people pushing for this have a world view. They see a bipolar world with China dominating Asia, US dominating it's hemisphere and Europe fending for itself. They also have major crypto holdings so instability of both major currencies benefits them financially.
Except that Crypto is also falling with the stock market (and faster), so if anything, it is correlated the wrong direction
Wait until Greenland drama goes sideways, then you will see the dollar getting washed out as the international currency.
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Because it’s geopolitically irrelevant, not because it’s robust. Split the user base along geopolitical axes and see how long the consensus algorithm lasts. Gold bars don’t have this problem.
Huh? Sorry, I don't understand any of what you are saying now.
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Who would you say the Bismarck equivalent for the USA is/was?
I wouldn't put it on one person, it was basically everyone between Roosevelt and Obama. Not that any of them were exactly geniuses, but we've gone from mostly sober drivers to someone blowing a 0.5 BAC.
For those who are not bothering to read this,the article essentially states that de-dollarization is happening in pockets (e.g., reserves down to ~58-60%, Treasuries foreign ownership at 30%), but the dollar's core dominance persists. What would replace it? I guess the options are Yuan, Gold, Oil or maybe BRICS in the future, none of which are safe, stable, and liquid.
Nothing. The Dollar is antifragile. The worse it gets, the more entrenched it becomes. [0] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gresham%27s_law
Apparently the guy that invented the concept disagrees: https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1914633020671246352
The international value of the dollar as a reserve and trade currency is inherently tied to the behavior of the US Government and the Federal Reserve. The behavior of the US Government has been very unusual lately, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is actively being challenged. So draw from that whatever conclusions you wish.
> So draw from that whatever conclusions you wish. Sure but replaced by what ? The abysmal failure that the EUR is? Or a chinese currency? What other options are there besides either a Chinese currency or the EUR? Chinese. EUR. Seen these twho choices, everybody understands why the USD isn't anywhere near losing its dominance status.
I remember studying pre-WWI history, and particularly how carefully Bismarck arranged German foreign policy like he was the diplomatic equivalent of Bobby Fischer. Everything was situated perfectly and Germany was totally content. Then along came the absolute moron Wilhelm, and he managed to Leroy Jenkins Germany's beautifully arranged relationships into an aggressive, tactless nightmare where all Germany's allies we…
Who would you say the Bismarck equivalent for the USA is/was?
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Solar, wind, and grid-attached battery. In the late teens, China was dominating all of these industries. Under policies of the Biden administration, these industries were growing domestically in the US and we were increasing our share of the global market. Over the last year those domestic industries have been destroyed. They are barely surviving and have stopped rapidly expanding. All gains made against China's domi…
Any links to data on these claims?
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Well there is a difference between people not buying anything at all and being significantly less than they are now. Consumer goods and services is only the tip of the iceberg. How much do you think debt would cost and how easy would it be for businesses to get credit? Combining a deflationary currency with a growing (or at least non static) economy is bad a everyone who has a basic understanding of history prior to…
You're forcing business to produce something valuable in real terms instead of nominal terms and you're making that calculation easier to do for economic actors because the measuring stick is now controlled by an algorithm as opposed to charlatans. Having less of that garbage fiat short-termism is a good thing for society.
Yet having more of endless boom and bust cycles with major economic depressions lasting for years (outcomes of the gold standard was a good idea).
> You're forcing business to produce something valuable in real terms instead of nominal terms
I don't quite understand what does that mean. Pricing goods in oil or grain? (coincidentally either of which would function better as a currency than bitcoin).
It's not losing it so much as that it is being destroyed on purpose.