741–750 of 753 posts
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When the ship is sinking the captain has to intervene
He's your captain, not mine. I prefer intelligent, thoughtful, compassionate, moral people to random rich guys who happened to be in the right place at the right time.
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Consumer devices are already available that offer 128gb specifically labeled for AI use. I think server side AI will still exist for IoT devices, but I agree, 10 years seems pretty reasonable timelie to buy a GTX 5080-sized card that will have 1TB of memory, with the ability to pair it with another one for 2TB. For local, non-distributed use, GPUs are already more than capable of doing 20+ tokens/s, we're mostly wait…
Are we constrained by RAM production? RAM Price per GB Projected to decline at 15% per annum. That's quite a few years before you'll get double the RAM. For mobile I'm guessing power constraints matter too.
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>It needs to learn new information, create novel connections, be creative. LLM's can do all those things
Nope. Can't learn anything after the training data, only within the very narrow context window. Any novel connections are through randomness, hence hallucinations instead of useful connections with background knowledge of involved systems or concepts. About creativity, see my previous point. If I spit out words that go next to eachother, it won't be creativity. Creativity implies a goal, a purpose, or sometimes by ch…
I feel that many people who deny the current utility and abilities of large-language models will continue to do so far after they've exceeded human intelligence, because the perception that they are fundamentally limited, regardless of whether they actually are or if their criticisms make any sense, is necessary for some load-bearing part of their sanity.
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Nope. Can't learn anything after the training data, only within the very narrow context window. Any novel connections are through randomness, hence hallucinations instead of useful connections with background knowledge of involved systems or concepts. About creativity, see my previous point. If I spit out words that go next to eachother, it won't be creativity. Creativity implies a goal, a purpose, or sometimes by ch…
I was considering refuting this point by point, but it seems your mind is already made up. I feel that many people who deny the current utility and abilities of large-language models will continue to do so far after they've exceeded human intelligence, because the perception that they are fundamentally limited, regardless of whether they actually are or if their criticisms make any sense, is necessary for some load-b…
I am denying that they are intelligent, or that by scaling them / upgrading them they will suddenly spring to life and become AGI.
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I rather think of the maintenance nightmare. You can't change anything - not cause the existing system is good but because there are no people left that understand the whole thing. But then I've got a few years to reach 50. Perhaps my views will change.
The gear cutting machines almost never had mechanical failures. As long as they keep them lubricated, and occasionally muck out the sumps, the machines should still be going in the year 2100. The other thing about gear cutting is that hobs only cut one size/profile of tooth. Some of the cutting tools I was using dated from before WW1, for odd sizes that didn't get used much.
Well, perhaps the long term solution is to rework it and start to use more common sizes. Standardization is a good thing in the long run.
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Why is it ridiculous that an LLM or a system similar to or built off of an LLM could reach AGI?
If AGI is built from LLMs, how could we trust it? It's going to "hallucinate", so I'm not sure that this AGI future people are clamoring for is going to really be all that good if it is built on LLMs.
They are now open about it. Musk tweets about a new company Macrohard, which does not manufacture itself ( https://xcancel.com/elonmusk/status/1977281341264740625#m ): "Our goal is to create a company that can do anything short of manufacturing physical objects directly, but will be able to do so indirectly, much like Apple has other companies manufacture their phones." In other words, we are a knowledge economy and…
WTF is this scam URL.
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That sounds like a result of brain drain, honestly. The people who stood up that hardware 50 years ago are 50 years older now. By contrast, the Chinese have mastered process knowledge , transferring from one domain to the next. If we want to compete with them, it’s worth knowing what doing well looks like.
No the point is "overhead". You don't disturb working setups because you will cause engineering time to update the setup, that engineering time is added to the cost overhead of a job. Time is literally money, even if the employee(s) are salaried, their time is factored into the cost of a job. The knowledge is still there, but American labor is expensive as hell compared to overseas competitors and so any shop in the…
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why does this arbitrage exist? Why is the cost of energy, the fundamental input into every economy, cheaper in Asia? Tractors consume fuel, fertilisers do too. Human labour is the least efficient at converting fuel into energy. When you dig a little deeper, you'd find an economy structured around keeping rentiers away from the basics: housing, energy and food.
Energy doesn’t come from just raw materials. It takes extraction, refinement, transportation etc in the case of petroleum, or manufacturing, installation etc in the case of wind and solar. If you mean in terms of general economics, why are some countries cheaper than others, I’m not really qualified to make a statement there. I’m also not talking about if it’s right or wrong. But it is the reality today.
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There maybe a lag we are talking 12-24 month projects on our end. But right AI spending is driving everything we will see how long application shows up.
Llms have been there for 3 years now... Is it another "2 more weeks" promise, à la Musk