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GPT-5

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Re: GPT-5

#741

Post by gdiamos »

highfrequency wrote: post #331

It is frequently suggested that once one of the AI companies reaches an AGI threshold, they will take off ahead of the rest. It's interesting to note that at least so far, the trend has been the opposite: as time goes on and the models get better, the performance of the different company's gets clustered closer together. Right now GPT-5, Claude Opus, Grok 4, Gemini 2.5 Pro all seem quite good across the board (ie the…

Scaling laws enabled an investment in capital and GPU R&D to deliver 10,000x faster training.

That took the wold from autocomplete to Claude and GPT.

Another 10,000x would do it again, but who has that kind of money or R&D breakthrough?

The way scaling laws work, 5,000x and 10,000x give a pretty similar result. So why is it surprising that competitors land in the same range? It seems hard enough to beat your competitor by 2x let alone 10,000x

Re: GPT-5

#742

Post by willsmith72 »

gdiamos wrote: post #741
highfrequency wrote: post #331

It is frequently suggested that once one of the AI companies reaches an AGI threshold, they will take off ahead of the rest. It's interesting to note that at least so far, the trend has been the opposite: as time goes on and the models get better, the performance of the different company's gets clustered closer together. Right now GPT-5, Claude Opus, Grok 4, Gemini 2.5 Pro all seem quite good across the board (ie the…

Scaling laws enabled an investment in capital and GPU R&D to deliver 10,000x faster training. That took the wold from autocomplete to Claude and GPT. Another 10,000x would do it again, but who has that kind of money or R&D breakthrough? The way scaling laws work, 5,000x and 10,000x give a pretty similar result. So why is it surprising that competitors land in the same range? It seems hard enough to beat your competit…

But also, AI progress is non-linear. We're more likely to have an AI winter than AGI

Re: GPT-5

#744

Post by alfalfasprout »

levocardia wrote: post #366
surround wrote: post #297

GPT-5 knowledge cutoff: Sep 30, 2024 (10 months before release). Compare that to Gemini 2.5 Pro knowledge cutoff: Jan 2025 (3 months before release) Claude Opus 4.1: knowledge cutoff: Mar 2025 (4 months before release) https://platform.openai.com/docs/models/compare https://deepmind.google/models/gemini/pro/ https://docs.anthropic.com/en/docs/about-claude/models/overv...

with web search, is knowledge cutoff really relevant anymore? Or is this more of a comment on how long it took them to do post-training?

It absolutely is, for example, even in coding where new design patterns or language features aren't easy to leverage.

Web search enables targeted info to be "updated" at query time. But it doesn't get used for every query and you're practically limited in how much you can query.

Re: GPT-5

#745

Post by alfalfasprout »

joshmlewis wrote: post #645
AgentMatrixAI wrote: post #566

I'm not really convinced, the benchmark blunder was really strange but the demos were quite underwhelming, and it appears this was reflected by a huge market correction in the betting markets as to who will have the best AI by end of the year. What excites me now is that Gemini 3.0 or some answer from Google is coming soon and that will be the one I will actually end up using. It seems like the last mover in the LLM…

I am convinced. I've been giving it tasks the past couple hours that Opus 4.1 was failing on and it not only did them but cleaned up the mess Opus made. It's the real deal.

Interesting, I've had the complete opposite experience. Opus 4.1 feels like a generational improvement compared to GPT-5.

Re: GPT-5

#746

Post by tbrownaw »

jablongo wrote: post #628
highfrequency wrote: post #331

It is frequently suggested that once one of the AI companies reaches an AGI threshold, they will take off ahead of the rest. It's interesting to note that at least so far, the trend has been the opposite: as time goes on and the models get better, the performance of the different company's gets clustered closer together. Right now GPT-5, Claude Opus, Grok 4, Gemini 2.5 Pro all seem quite good across the board (ie the…

It's also worth considering that past some threshold, it may be very difficult for us as users to discern which model is better. I don't think thats what's going on here, but we should be ready for it. For example, if you are an ELO 1000 chess player would you yourself be able to tell if Magnus Carlson or another grandmaster were better by playing them individually? To the extent that our AGI/SI metrics are based on…

> It's also worth considering that past some threshold, it may be very difficult for us as users to discern which model is better.

Even if they've saturated the distinguishable quality for tasks they can both do, I'd expect a gap in what tasks they're able to do.

Re: GPT-5

#747

Post by nialv7 »

surround wrote: post #297

GPT-5 knowledge cutoff: Sep 30, 2024 (10 months before release). Compare that to Gemini 2.5 Pro knowledge cutoff: Jan 2025 (3 months before release) Claude Opus 4.1: knowledge cutoff: Mar 2025 (4 months before release) https://platform.openai.com/docs/models/compare https://deepmind.google/models/gemini/pro/ https://docs.anthropic.com/en/docs/about-claude/models/overv...

maybe OpenAI have a terribly inefficient data ingestion pipeline? (wild guess) basically taking in new data is tedious so they do that infrequently and keep using old data for training.

Re: GPT-5

#748

Post by Sharlin »

highfrequency wrote: post #331

It is frequently suggested that once one of the AI companies reaches an AGI threshold, they will take off ahead of the rest. It's interesting to note that at least so far, the trend has been the opposite: as time goes on and the models get better, the performance of the different company's gets clustered closer together. Right now GPT-5, Claude Opus, Grok 4, Gemini 2.5 Pro all seem quite good across the board (ie the…

> It is frequently suggested that once one of the AI companies reaches an AGI threshold, they will take off ahead of the rest.

Yes. And the fact they're instead clustering simply indicates that they're nowhere near AGI and are hitting diminishing returns, as they've been doing for a long time already. This should be obvious to everyone. I'm fairly sure that none of these companies has been able to use their models as a force multiplier in state-of-the-art AI research. At least not beyond a 1+ε factor. Fuck, they're just barely a force multiplier in mundane coding tasks.

Re: GPT-5

#749

Post by Lerc »

highfrequency wrote: post #331

It is frequently suggested that once one of the AI companies reaches an AGI threshold, they will take off ahead of the rest. It's interesting to note that at least so far, the trend has been the opposite: as time goes on and the models get better, the performance of the different company's gets clustered closer together. Right now GPT-5, Claude Opus, Grok 4, Gemini 2.5 Pro all seem quite good across the board (ie the…

>It is frequently suggested that once one of the AI companies reaches an AGI threshold, they will take off ahead of the rest. It's interesting to note that at least so far, the trend has been the opposite

That seems hardy surprising considering the condition to receive the benefit has not been met.

The person who lights a campfire first will become warmer than the rest, but while they are trying to light the fire the others are gathering firewood. So while nobody has a fire, those lagging are getting closer to having a fire.

Re: GPT-5

#750

Post by nialv7 »

Topfi wrote: post #281

> 400,000 context window > 128,000 max output tokens > Input $1.25 > Output $10.00 Source: https://platform.openai.com/docs/models/gpt-5 If this performs well in independent needle-in-haystack and adherence evaluations, this pricing with this context window alone would make GPT-5 extremely competitive with Gemini 2.5 Pro and Claude Opus 4.1, even if the output isn't a significant improvement over o3. If the output qu…

Being on-par with competitors is somehow a "massive leap" for OpenAI now? How far have they fallen...
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