US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU • Hacker News Board

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#741

Post by Lord_Zero » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 3:47 PM UTC

ASinclair wrote: post #711

lumb63 wrote: post #625

Everyone is quick to deride this move as stupid. I don’t disagree that there are downsides to the approach, but there is a set of very real national problems that this might address. For instance, globalization and offshoring of production has made goods cheaper for consumers, but what about the former domestic producers who could not compete, and do not have the skills or capital to find a new job which pays as well…

If you believe in these tariffs then the major problem is how he enacted them. Businesses want certainty. It takes years to build factories. The next president could just wipe away these tariffs instantly. Hell, even the current one could. That does not give these companies the certainty they need to commit years of effort to building factories. If the goal is to spur domestic manufacturing then, at a minimum, he wou…

Which is why they want to abolish term limits.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#742

Post by kurthr » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 3:48 PM UTC

motorest wrote: post #635

TaurenHunter wrote: post #599

I don't see anyone mentioning that the United States needs to manage its massive national debt, currently in the trillions, by issuing Treasury securities. These securities mature at varying intervals and require continuous "rolling" or refinancing to pay off old debt with new borrowing. Significant rollovers are expected from April through September 2025, with additional short-term maturities due by June. Higher int…

> I don't see anyone mentioning that the United States needs to manage its massive national debt, currently in the trillions, by issuing Treasury securities. It's very hard to even assume that's a concern of the current US administration, based on not only the fundamentalist goal of radically cutting taxes and regulations, coupled with the fact that it's purposely pushing a recessive economic policy that defies any l…

Put clowns in charge and you'll get a circus.

Öküz saraya çıkınca kral olmaz. Ama saray ahır olur.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#743

Post by ben_w » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 3:48 PM UTC

IMTDb wrote: post #704

roxolotl wrote: post #479

Aside from everything else one thing what strikes me as particularly insane is how it’s not even defensible as a protective measure. My favorite everyday olive oil comes from Tunisia. They now have a 38% tariff on them. There are no out of work olive farmers in the US. The orange man wanted tariffs, the orange man is going to get tariffs. Now we have to hope the American people aren’t so dumb as to still be convinced…

The orange man is saying: "Looks like you are sending a lot of $$$ to those olive oil farmers in Tunisia. With my tariffs you now have two choices at your disposal: either you keep buying their Olive oil but then you are going to have to give me $$$ as well to pay for our national debt. You are going to buy less of it; and help your country in the process. Alternatively, you can decide that maybe you don't need olive…

> I am really not a Trump supporter at all. But at the same time the gradual reduction of tariffs has been a key factor of increasing global trade; which in turn is a key component of the increase of CO2 emissions. Finding a way to dampen a bit the international component and making sure that locally sourced products and services are not affected seems not that bad.

I'm not sure about that part.

International shipping in particular isn't a huge part of the energy cost of the goods that get shipped, so making the same things locally doesn't save much. This is from 2016 so things will have changed since then, but back then it was 1.6% of emissions from shipping, vs. 11.9% from road transport: https://ourworldindata.org/ghg-emissions-by-sector

What trade does increase directly is the global economy, and that in turn means more money is available to be spent on energy; historically the energy has been carbon intensive, but everyone is now producing as much green energy as they have factories to work with, and are making factories for those green energy systems as fast as they have bureaucracy to cope with.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#744

Post by 0x5f3759df-i » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 3:53 PM UTC

iteratethis wrote: post #75

This won't bring home manufacturing but let's say that it will... The US doesn't have the people to do the actual manufacturing. I saw a video recently explaining how sectors like the military, construction and the automotive industry each have 100K+ positions that they are unable to fill. A return to manufacturing adds to that shortage. Apparently there's some 7 million young men of working age that are...missing in…

This is basic economics that the administration refuses to understand.

Trade allows you to consume beyond your nation’s manpower and resource constraints.

And it’s even stupider when you’re putting tariffs on raw materials like Canadian lumber. So not only do we need to magically find millions of workers to work in these new factories we also need to find a bunch of lumberjacks and start cutting down our own trees? We’re at 4% unemployment, who’s going to do this work?

We literally don’t have the people to make this work.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#745

Post by colordrops » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 3:54 PM UTC

cloverich wrote: post #661

lumb63 wrote: post #625

Everyone is quick to deride this move as stupid. I don’t disagree that there are downsides to the approach, but there is a set of very real national problems that this might address. For instance, globalization and offshoring of production has made goods cheaper for consumers, but what about the former domestic producers who could not compete, and do not have the skills or capital to find a new job which pays as well…

> Globalization has played a big role in creating the massive income inequality in our country; it seems like we should fix that. Wouldn't restoring the prior taxes to those with highest incomes, and adding a proper capital gains tax, address this directly? As I've started to accumulate small amounts of wealth I've realized, my capital gains are taxed lower than my income; when I sell my house, I get up to 500k of ga…

It is absolutely wild to me that money gained from letting it sit is taxed less than money gained from working your ass off. A crime against the working class.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#746

Post by fwip » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 3:55 PM UTC

greybox wrote: post #727

lumb63 wrote: post #625

Everyone is quick to deride this move as stupid. I don’t disagree that there are downsides to the approach, but there is a set of very real national problems that this might address. For instance, globalization and offshoring of production has made goods cheaper for consumers, but what about the former domestic producers who could not compete, and do not have the skills or capital to find a new job which pays as well…

One unintended benefit of this move might be reducing greenhouse gas emissions from global shipping ... if US consumers are consuming more US made products, the supply chain for those projects will have gotten significantly shorter in nautical miles. I'm hesitant credit President Trump with this too soon though, after all, his motto is "drill drill drill", but It's going to be interesting to see what happens.

Emissions from shipping are about 3-5% of global greenhouse gases, and my understanding is that also includes all domestic shipping. Emissions from personal vehicles (not including freight trucks) is at something like 10%.

I don't have specific numbers for America on hand, but I'd be very surprised if Trump's administration broke even, let alone cause an overall reduction.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#747

Post by megaman821 » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 3:56 PM UTC

rthomas6 wrote: post #613

TaurenHunter wrote: post #599

I don't see anyone mentioning that the United States needs to manage its massive national debt, currently in the trillions, by issuing Treasury securities. These securities mature at varying intervals and require continuous "rolling" or refinancing to pay off old debt with new borrowing. Significant rollovers are expected from April through September 2025, with additional short-term maturities due by June. Higher int…

The flaw I see is centered around this paragraph. > How can rates come down? The present uncertainty around tariffs and a potential crisis could create conditions that pressure interest rates downward before those Treasury securities mature, by influencing Federal Reserve policy. Rising prices due to tariffs won't pressure the Fed to lower interest rates. It will increase inflation and worries of inflation, which wil…

Since people won't actually have more money to spend, you would expect it to lower the prices of other things like housing or travel. So there should be a negligible impact on inflation depending on the weighting.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#748

Post by kolanos » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 3:56 PM UTC

arrosenberg wrote: post #706

lumb63 wrote: post #625

Everyone is quick to deride this move as stupid. I don’t disagree that there are downsides to the approach, but there is a set of very real national problems that this might address. For instance, globalization and offshoring of production has made goods cheaper for consumers, but what about the former domestic producers who could not compete, and do not have the skills or capital to find a new job which pays as well…

> So, to anyone who disagrees with these measures, but agrees that these are issues we ought to solve, what would you propose? Good faith negotiations with our allies and trading partners that creates a balance of trade and reduces wealth inequality in the west. I'm not opposed to the actual ideas being floated, but the people doing are are completely unserious and it's being implemented in a stupid nonsense way.

> Good faith negotiations with our allies and trading partners that creates a balance of trade and reduces wealth inequality in the west.

We can look at a 50+ year history of every major U.S. trade partner increasing their protectionist policies, largely targeting the U.S., while the U.S. allowed trade deficits to balloon out of control. I don't see evidence that this "good faith" approach you speak of has any viability at all. The global economy can't say with a straight face that it has been a fair trade partner with the United States. For the past 50+ years the U.S. market has been open for business for all global producers, but the same has been far from true for pretty much every major U.S. trade partner. You can't even operate a company in China without 50% Chinese ownership, for example. The global stance on trade has all but made this an inevitable outcome.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#749

Post by jancsika » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 3:57 PM UTC

roxolotl wrote: post #479

Aside from everything else one thing what strikes me as particularly insane is how it’s not even defensible as a protective measure. My favorite everyday olive oil comes from Tunisia. They now have a 38% tariff on them. There are no out of work olive farmers in the US. The orange man wanted tariffs, the orange man is going to get tariffs. Now we have to hope the American people aren’t so dumb as to still be convinced…

> My favorite everyday olive oil comes from Tunisia. They now have a 38% tariff on them.

"Silver lining:" there's a good chance that oil was either rancid or doesn't pass basic quality tests for the "extra-virgin" part:

https://www.ucdavis.edu/news/imported-olive-oil-quality-unre...

The COOC web site lists California olive oils that they've certified. Last time I checked California Gold Olive Oil was certified, and they even sell it in half and full gallons. That's just one I've tried and liked-- there are a bunch of others listed on the COOC web site. (Edit: there are probably certification trade associations for other countries/regions, COOC is just the one I'm familiar with.)

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#750

Post by svara » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 3:59 PM UTC

It's true that free trade is hugely beneficial to the US economy as a whole, particularly with the USD being the reserve currency.

The flow of goods is balanced by a flow of US dollars to other countries, which are ultimately cycled back into the US financial system - enabling budget deficits and an abundance of capital to invest in high growth industries.

The flip side of this is that it also drives inequality - the upside of this system is felt by the entrepreneurs, investors and high-skill employees in tech and finance, while the downside is concentrated with low-skill workers whose jobs are offshored to lower wage countries.

The obvious solution is not to hurt the economy as a whole, but rather for the government to lower the cost of high-quality education, build out social systems, and invest into onshoring select strategic industries by raising taxes at the high end.

As such, this administration's policies are foolish, but many on this very site would need to give up a little bit of their privilege to reduce the pain felt by many of their fellow citizens.

That is something that in the current American political climate seems a nearly impossible sell.