Still no post on their official blog. How disappointing.
Grok3 Launch [video]
741–750 of 1001 posts
Re: Grok3 Launch [video]
#742Earlier quoted context omitted.
You seem to be assuming that the full cost of the cluster is recouped by Grok 3. The real value will be in grok 5, 6, etc… xAI also announced a few days ago they are starting an internal video game studio. How long before AI companies take over Hollywood and Disney? The value available to be captured is massive. The cluster they’ve built is impressive compared to the competition, and grok 3 barely scratches what it’s…
Yes. Why do get these replies on HN that seem to only consider the most shallow, surface details? It could well be that xAI wins the AI race by betting on hardware first and foremost - new ideas are quickly copied by everyone, but a compute edge is hard to match.
> but a compute edge is hard to match.
xAI bought hardware off the open market. Their compute edge could dissappear in a month if Google or Amazon wanted to raise their compute by a whole xAI
Re: Grok3 Launch [video]
#743Earlier quoted context omitted.
What's remarkable to me about criticism like this is how quickly it's rebutted by people claiming "where did they say they would do this," as if these people don't make incredibly rushed and poorly planned decisions all the time. It's like an idea immune system that rejects any criticism or self reflection. It would be sociologically fascinating if it wasn't being combined with a dereliction of congressional power an…
I literally post for years the same thing about the need for open source alternatives to social platforms where 1 person controls the algorithm to prioritize what a billion people see. And the response is “meh”. No one even bothers to read past the first paragraph: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43036350 But if you really want to see the “immune system” shine, mention web3 and smart contracts, and watch the dow…
> But if you really want to see the “immune system” shine, mention web3 and smart contracts, and watch the downvotes pour in.
Yeah that sounds like a feature, not a bug.
Re: Grok3 Launch [video]
#744Earlier quoted context omitted.
> There is no monetisation potential. DOGE uses only X links, and I am sure Grok will be the next gov contract. After all he has all the data on everybody down to your IRS tax returns.
How this is even legal. Don’t they have any sort of competitive tendering?
Why do you think legality matters?
Re: Grok3 Launch [video]
#745Earlier quoted context omitted.
I used to think the same way wrt Nvidia stock when it tanked - compute is clearly diminishing returns. Tech companies subsequently announced capex equal to or greater than expected in compute. I smacked myself on the forehead when I realized - I'd been think too much like an engineer. Tech CEOs badly want to believe they have an edge over every upstart from San Francisco to Shanghai. Unlimited spending on compute giv…
This is the danger of being informed only by sensational headlines. Nvidia's stock has fully recovered and is again near an all-time high. You seem to be generalizing about "Tech CEOs" — but in this case, GPUs are the advantage. They are necessary to achieve the outcome, and yet they are severely supply constrained. It's smart to overpay now. Apple did something similar with NAND storage for the iPad mini. They took…
I don't think I was informed by sensational headlines. I was well into talking to people I knew about how DS's performance relative to compute was a game changer much before the stock crash.
It's not binary where you either have compute or not. You definitely do need GPUs, but there's already masses of compute, I believe it doubles every ten months or so just from Nvidia's chips. Many factors make it a very irrational decision
1) Companies were spending hundreds of billions collectively on AI capex. Meta alone was 75 billion projected this year. This is an extraordinary bet, given that the most revenue any AI company makes is a few billion by OpenAI.
2) When DS came out, it was a huge validation of the moatless idea. These SOTA companies have no moat, at best they are spending tens of billions to maintain a few months edge.
3) DS was also a huge validation of the compute saturation idea - that SOTA models were always massively efficient. At best it was traded for iteration speed.
4) Many other more technical arguments - Jevons paradox, data exhaustion (synthetic data can only be generated for a fixed set of things), apparent diminishing returns (performance relative to compute, the denominator has been exponential but the numerator logarithmic)
So on one hand you have these SOTA models which are becoming free. On the other hand you have this terrible business model. I strongly suspect that AI will go the way of Meta's Metaverse - a staggering cash burn with no realistic path to profitability.
It's one thing to invest in a new technology with tangible benefits to your product. It's another to spend vastly, vastly more into vague promises of AGI. To put it into perspective, Meta will spend on AI capex in a few months of 2025 as much as Apple spent on NAND in total. What advantage is there to be had with SOTA models? You do 20% better on some AIME/IQ/competitive coding benchmark, which still translates atrociously to real world issues.
But Nvidia will be very successful because these companies frankly have lost a lot of the plot and are FOMOing like mad. I still have memories of the 2013 AI gold rush where every tech company was grabbing anything with AI in them, which is how Google got DeepMind. They are being enormously rewarded by it by the stock market with Meta's price 6x since it's lows.
Re: Grok3 Launch [video]
#746Earlier quoted context omitted.
You seem to be assuming that the full cost of the cluster is recouped by Grok 3. The real value will be in grok 5, 6, etc… xAI also announced a few days ago they are starting an internal video game studio. How long before AI companies take over Hollywood and Disney? The value available to be captured is massive. The cluster they’ve built is impressive compared to the competition, and grok 3 barely scratches what it’s…
How quickly will Grok 4/5/6 be released? Of course you can choose to keep running older GPUs for years, but if you want bleeding edge performance then you need to upgrade, so I'm not sure how many model generations the cost can really be spread over. Also, what isn't clear is how RL-based reasoning model training compute requirements compares to earlier models. OpenAI have announced that GPT 4.5 will be their last no…
At current efficiency? Not nearly as fast as DeepSeek 4 ;)
Re: Grok3 Launch [video]
#747Earlier quoted context omitted.
> There is no monetisation potential. DOGE uses only X links, and I am sure Grok will be the next gov contract. After all he has all the data on everybody down to your IRS tax returns.
How this is even legal. Don’t they have any sort of competitive tendering?
We are long past the rule of law in the US. Whatever is left is residual, running on fumes. China-style corruption is here to stay.
Re: Grok3 Launch [video]
#748Re: Grok3 Launch [video]
#749Earlier quoted context omitted.
Elon's unchecked power at building a model? Or at politics? I always worry whenever I see people telling me how to feel - rage in this case. We are in a political system that is oriented more around getting people to feel rage and hatred as opposed to consensus and deliberation. Elon is the face of that, but it's a much longer and larger problem. Throw in the complete dismisal that anyone not scared of this is ignora…
> Continuing the senseless partisan drive of the 20 years does. I think what the government is going through right now is wrapping up the last political system. The idea that Democrats and Republicans just need to learn how to work together is just wrong. The parties are being destroyed, and I think we should all cheer that. They were built to address the issues of the 20th century, and neither party in the current f…
Consolidating power in the hands of the few very rich is not something new, it's just the old come again.
Re: Grok3 Launch [video]
#750https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/elon-musks-terrifying-visi... I'm not sure if this was a very bad joke by Elon, or if Grok 3 is really biased like that.
I am not sure why people pay attention to Gary Marcus. He isn’t an expert in AI. And if you followed him in the past at all, it is obvious he has a huge amount of political bias. It is really telling that he repeatedly goes after Elon Musk, and is now making bizarre unfounded claims about propaganda, but didn’t have nearly as much to complain about with DeepSeek, which has literal government propaganda.
People like getting scared. That's how they pay billions of $$$ every year to watch mostly cr*ppy horror movies.
GM has been a joke for years now. At some point his ramblings reached a GPT3.5 level, and have not improved since.
It's inditement on humans' logic and reasoning to give non-zero time to GM. Alas—we are human, we are both collectively clever (Wisdom of Crowds) and collectivelly stupid (Extraordinary Popular Delusions).