741–750 of 814 posts
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They would need 250 million GPT Plus $20 subscribers to recoup a $5 billion expense. They're far from that even when we count the free users (which are likely 99% of the user base?) The math just doesn't work. They're hemorrhaging money as far as I can tell (not counting the Azure computing deal). We can only guess, but my guess is that inference is still a good chunk of their costs. That's why they're trying to get…
Redo the math....
Earlier quoted context omitted.
They would need 250 million GPT Plus $20 subscribers to recoup a $5 billion expense. They're far from that even when we count the free users (which are likely 99% of the user base?) The math just doesn't work. They're hemorrhaging money as far as I can tell (not counting the Azure computing deal). We can only guess, but my guess is that inference is still a good chunk of their costs. That's why they're trying to get…
Redo the math....
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We'd all be millionaires if AI could actually help with that, but then if everyone is a millionaire then nobody is. Current AI is still at the state of recommending people jump off the golden gate bridge if they feel sad or telling them to change their blinker fluid.
You're right. And that's why I wonder how a developer can claim to get a 300% increase in productivity from AI results.
With AI I can do the same in 15 seconds. We’re talking a 120x increase in productivity not a 3x improvement.
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It sounds like you're arguing with yourself. You provide exactly the reasons why generative AI isn't going to take us to a "place where human musicians can't earn a living". It's my understanding that most small bands primarily earn their money from live performances and merchandise, gen AI isn't going to compete with them there, if anything it'll make it much easier for them to create their own merch or at least the…
Yeah I didn't really state that very well. My point was mostly what you say: because people are fans of artists, and because AI music is/will be essentially free to produce, AI music isn't something that will make money for anyone, unless it's the default way anything online makes money: ads are injected into it. I'm not going to pay for it. I'm not going to buy merchandise, or go to concerts, or do anything a music…
There are a lot more fuzzy edges too, you can use AI tools to "autotune" your own voice into a completely different one. You can tap out a quick melody on a keyboard and then extend, embellish and transform it into a full song. You could even do the full song yourself first and then remix it using AI.
The point I agree on would be that one-click hits are going to be few and far between for a while at least. If no effort is put into selecting the best then it's really just random chance. I'd be willing to bet that there will be an indie smash hit song created by a single person who doesn't perform any of the vocals or instruments within a year though. It'll get no play time on anything controlled by the industry titans but people will be streaming it regardless.
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>We are basically out of new, non-synthetic text to train models this is not even remotely true. There is an astronomical amount of data siloed by publishers, professional journals etc. that is yet to be tapped. OpenAI is making inroads by making deals with these content owners for access to all that juicy data.
>>>There is an astronomical amount of data siloed by publishers, professional journals etc. that is yet to be tapped. You seem to think these models haven't already been trained on pirated versions of this content, for some reason.
That’s not even considering AI crawlers or all the copyright text on archive.org
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> I am yet to see any reasoned argument for why it is far more difficult and will take far longer. For language models specifically, they are trained on data and have historically been improved by increasing the size of the model (by number of parameters) and by the amount and/or quality of training data. We are basically out of new, non-synthetic text to train models on and it’s extremely hard work to come up with n…
>We are basically out of new, non-synthetic text to train models this is not even remotely true. There is an astronomical amount of data siloed by publishers, professional journals etc. that is yet to be tapped. OpenAI is making inroads by making deals with these content owners for access to all that juicy data.
AI (specifically Claude Sonnet via Cursor) has completely transformed my workflow. It's changed my job description as a programmer. (And I've been doing this for 13y – no greenhorn!) This wasn't the case with GPT-4/o. This capability is very new. When I spoke to a colleague at Microsoft about these changes, they were floored. Microsoft has made themselves synonymous with AI, yet their company is barely even leveragin…
I feel like I'm living in a different universe sometimes. The consensus on HN seems to be that you can be pretty productive with LLMs as coding assistants, but every time I try I find it borderline impossible to get functional code even for pretty straightforward prompts. I decided to fire up GPT-4o again today to see if maybe things have gotten better over the past few months. I asked GPT to write code to render a t…
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Good luck telling a bunch of programmers that their skills are legitimately under threat. No one wants to hear that. Especially when you are living a top 10% lifestyle on the back of being good at communicating to computers. There is an old documentary of the final days of typesetters for newspapers. These were the (very skilled) people who rapidly put each individual carved steel character block into the printing fr…
What’s the title of the documentary?
The documentary he's referring to is likely "Farewell, Etaoin Shrdlu," released in 1980. It chronicles the last day of hot metal typesetting at The New York Times before they transitioned to newer technology. The title comes from the nonsense phrase "etaoin shrdlu," which appeared frequently in Linotype machine errors due to the way the keys were arranged. The documentary provides a fascinating look at the end of an era in newspaper production.