I wish GPT4 had never happened • Hacker News Board

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#741

Post by ilyt » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 6:54 PM UTC

zamnos wrote: post #739

kypro wrote: post #714

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good luck trying to tax AGI companies 95% of profits. Perhaps you could strike but you'll be unemployed. I guess we'll just have to cross our fingers that Sam Altman and friends will pity us enough to give us some pocket money to survive. That's assuming the AGI created is aligned with our values. I mean, we can keep hoping that AGI will be a good thing with zero evidence or we can take action to slow progress now so…

In the history of political movements, have there been any that have been successful with slowing progress? The Luddites failed to. stop the industrial revolution, despite all the looms they broke. The cat's been released from BagGPT, and even if all the world's countries ban AGI research (somehow), that's just going to drive the work underground, and the first ones to get usefully further along the curve will be abl…

Let's just try to tax the progress so the billions of profits from making people's jobs obsolete won't just go back to billionaires again

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#742

Post by ilaksh » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 6:55 PM UTC

_fat_santa wrote: post #491

surgical_fire wrote: post #156

Funny thing - I've been using ChatGPT as a programming assistant. My experience with it is that the more knowledgeable I am at the domain, the more useful it is. It often generates code that won't compile or won't run correctly, but that sort of goes in the correct direction, enough that I can spot the blunders and refine my questions. Quite often I even learn a few new things when using it to explore libraries and f…

By this logic, Priya (the subject of the authors post) would not loose her job but rather just become more productive at her job. And I think that's the key to this whole "GPT4 is taking our jobs argument" that people need to understand, GPT is a bit like Autopilot in a Tesla, it can do the work for you but you still need a trained person there to guide it. Folks like Priya will not loose their jobs IMO, the company…

He knows she will lose her job because he literally said they don't need her anymore since he verified that he can do it with GPT4.

And the new FSD in Tesla only requires people to supervise closely mainly to avoid getting sued. If that system made a lot of severe errors then it would not be deployed.

We have working self-driving in Cruise and Waymo. The only reason to think we really need humans driving at this point is denial. Actually if we switched to AI drivers entirely with the existing systems that would make the roads vastly safer. Accounting for the most erratic behavior of human drivers is one of the biggest challenges.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#743

Post by surgical_fire » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 6:57 PM UTC

ihateyouall123 wrote: post #580

surgical_fire wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You should come here and find some meaning painting my fence. While you are at it, the toilet in the basement is clogged, there is shit water all over the place. You could find meaning there too.

It sounds like you simply haven't experienced the full spectrum of humanity. There are plenty of people who find pleasure in shit.

Fitting username, have my upvote.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#744

Post by surgical_fire » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 7:00 PM UTC

ericbarrett wrote: post #617

surgical_fire wrote: post #156

Funny thing - I've been using ChatGPT as a programming assistant. My experience with it is that the more knowledgeable I am at the domain, the more useful it is. It often generates code that won't compile or won't run correctly, but that sort of goes in the correct direction, enough that I can spot the blunders and refine my questions. Quite often I even learn a few new things when using it to explore libraries and f…

AI is a ratchet. It doesn't die, or retire, or change careers. Once it's good at something, it stays good. Once it gets better at something, it stays better. (If not, the model is disposed of without pity or remorse.) Right now, it may make you better at your job. But your very use of it is training it to do your job. It seems to me that if AI is currently helpful to you, it is likely to eventually replace you. And m…

Any tool that is helpful to me is likely to eventually replace me?

And if I'm eventually replaced, so be it. I'll go do something else.

If there's nothing else to do I'll starve with the rest of the peasantry.

And remember, the last to starve will be the first to suffocate.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#745

Post by ilaksh » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 7:01 PM UTC

winstonprivacy wrote: post #529

surgical_fire wrote: post #156

Funny thing - I've been using ChatGPT as a programming assistant. My experience with it is that the more knowledgeable I am at the domain, the more useful it is. It often generates code that won't compile or won't run correctly, but that sort of goes in the correct direction, enough that I can spot the blunders and refine my questions. Quite often I even learn a few new things when using it to explore libraries and f…

Same here. It's like a well rounded but very junior level coding assistant that produces a probably flawed bit decent first pass in seconds instead of a week. As a very senior programmer, it's the first technology in a long time that has doubled, or maybe even tripled, my productivity. The demand for my skills is only going to accelerate because of how godly this had made me.

In the very short term maybe. But nocode tools like make.com are already very popular for non-programmers and are used by many to create custom software for their own business or department.

Existing nocode tools and other new tools such as the one I am building will incorporate LLMs and multimodal models to automatically build software. There is nothing limiting it to only be used by programmers. The systems will also have debugging loops and long term tasks etc. And every 3-6 months the models are getting better or faster. Even if that slows down we should anticipate further dramatic improvement over the course of the next two years.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#746

Post by satvikpendem » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 7:02 PM UTC

HyperSane wrote: post #718

mertd wrote: post #655

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People are very good at creating work. Every time tech creates a paradigm shift and people cry that there will be not enough work, the exact opposite happens.

In the US at least we have used every technology that increases productivity to keep hours of labor constant and make the rich richer. Millions of Wal-Mart workers have to do a year of hard labor just to earn the cost of a set of new tires for the CEO's 10th supercar.

If the Walmart employees aren't needed, Walmart would just fire them. They're still there because their work is still required, as people are continuing to buy more stuff from Walmart. It's not some conspiracy to keep hours of labor consistent, the workers aren't getting paid 8 hours just for no reason.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#747

Post by davidktr » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 7:03 PM UTC

satvikpendem wrote: post #717

ehnto wrote: post #419

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's currently the same issue it has for programming. It takes me longer to transcribe and factcheck the output than it would have for me to just write it from scratch. Writing the code stops being the bottleneck in software pretty quickly, and instead translating and merging business logic into existing software takes the most time.

It works well for statically typed languages though. I use it for Rust and simply copy paste, allowing the compiler to tell me where it's wrong. For Python or something similar, I wouldn't use it at all.

I do use ChatGPT very often for Python and SQL right now, but you really have to know what you are doing. The errors are sublte but such that the code more often than not would not run.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#748

Post by thefz » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 7:04 PM UTC

It's just going to make already rich people, richer.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#749

Post by cambaceres » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 7:04 PM UTC

HyperSane wrote: post #450

The fact that so many people fear loss of income as a result of better AI is a real indictment of our economic system. A better system that more fairly distributed economic productivity would make people welcome better AI because they could be confident it would make everyone wealthier instead of just a few people rich enough to be Goa'uld.

I don’t know what country you live in, but I can tell you how it is in Sweden. As a freelancer I pay appropriately 70% of what I charge in taxes. How high do you think taxes can get before people stop putting energy into raising their productivity?

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#750

Post by ilaksh » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 7:06 PM UTC

criddell wrote: post #518

surgical_fire wrote: post #156

Funny thing - I've been using ChatGPT as a programming assistant. My experience with it is that the more knowledgeable I am at the domain, the more useful it is. It often generates code that won't compile or won't run correctly, but that sort of goes in the correct direction, enough that I can spot the blunders and refine my questions. Quite often I even learn a few new things when using it to explore libraries and f…

It's not bad for something that's pretty new. Now imagine what another decade or two of development will give us. The number of areas in which a typical worker is more knowledgeable is going to get lower and lower.

Two decades? It added 40 IQ points in the last six months.

It can already ingest 80kb of information instantly and use it to perform any knowledge task that can be described in that amount of info (with the 32k token model).

The number of areas in which the typical worker is better than a GPT3.5 or GPT4 system that has been properly integrated with the correct data and tools is already probably less than 5% for knowledge workers.