We're going to need a lot of solar panels • Hacker News Board

Re: We're going to need a lot of solar panels

#741

Post by tsimionescu » Sat, Jul 23, 2022, 10:33 PM UTC

pydry wrote: post #600

tsimionescu wrote: post #578

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The hypothetical was about selling them all at once, or a very short period of time.

A) The OP did not mention this. B) even if he did it would be kind of like saying that your 500k house isnt really worth 500k because if you walked out on to the street and and asked passers by for offers for a maximum of one hour you would almost certainly not get 500k.

> A) The OP did not mention this.

The OP said "If Jeff Bezos dumped his entire holding [...]". I find it very hard to equate "dump" with "still over the course of a decade".

> B) even if he did it would be kind of like saying that your 500k house isnt really worth 500k because if you walked out on to the street and and asked passers by for offers for a maximum of one hour you would almost certainly not get 500k.

Now you're exaggerating in the other direction. The point is that if these people whose fortune is entirely stock of a massive company wanted to sell all of that stock for cold hard cash on the stock exchange in the same way you or I might sell our stock for a big purchase, they would actually only get a fraction of the nominal value ascribed to them.

Sure, if they do it slowly over the course of a decade, and if the business avruay survives that long at its current valuation (which Amazon might, but Tesla won't), then they can eventually actually get the fortunes they theoretically own.

Re: We're going to need a lot of solar panels

#742

Post by formerkrogemp » Sat, Jul 23, 2022, 10:39 PM UTC

Consultant32452 wrote: post #254

8note wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a limiting case, a private system can't do it cheaper than a public one. A private system needs to skim profits off the top, which will always limit how cheap it can go

"Your margin is my opportunity." ~Jeff Bezos Private is cheaper if there is competition. Monopolies are always more costly, public or private.

"You cheap, underpaid labor is my wealth. Thanks for the trip to space, nerds." - Jeff Bezos

Re: We're going to need a lot of solar panels

#743

Post by JohnHaugeland » Sat, Jul 23, 2022, 10:41 PM UTC

cinntaile wrote: post #706

JohnHaugeland wrote: post #688

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You said "isn't real", that's literally all you said. Until you can show me one that's been built, that remains correct. . > Either way the plant in Germany is still operational, the one Audi had. It's operated by Kiwi AG and it's located in Werlte. That's a different plant doing different work in a different city, which was built by different people and never owned by Audi. That plant produces hydrogen from water,…

Can you link to the plant you refer to? This plant is in Wertle and it produces e-gas by splitting water into H2 and O2 and in the next step the H2 reacts with CO2 to give CH4. https://www.audi-mediacenter.com/en/press-releases/new-audi-...

I see that you're continuing to flog the wrong plant by the wrong people for the wrong process, after that was pointed out to you.

I can link to it, but I gave you more than enough information to Google it.

Re: We're going to need a lot of solar panels

#744

Post by JohnHaugeland » Sat, Jul 23, 2022, 10:43 PM UTC

bob29 wrote: post #732

JohnHaugeland wrote: post #691

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There are many chemical plants synthesizing chemicals in large quantities: ammonia, ethanol, etc. There sure are. Zero of them, however, produce gasoline or kerosene from air. Many, many substances cannot be produced in chemical plants currently. . > Until 10 years ago, the cheapest primary fuel was all fossil fuel based It still is, by leagues. The only reason that isn't showing up in the market is a blend of tax…

I'm not one to argue etymology. Apparently nothing is real until it's realized. So "not being real" is meaningless and we should discuss whether something is "able to be realized". Can fuels by synthesized at industrial scale? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sasol I'm sure the goalposts just moved LOL

> we should discuss whether something is "able to be realized".

Cool story.

Are you about to say "well what if we can realize the way to realize it" when I point out none of the industrial work is done, none of the process work is done, none of the factories are built, none of the laws are drafted, none of the money is raised, none of the functionaries are settled, and none of the customers are online?

If you can't point to things that already exist, then what you're talking about isn't going to be ready in time.

I have been pretty clear that I am not going to be convinced by "could be." It's not clear why people insist on continuing to try.

Re: We're going to need a lot of solar panels

#745

Post by beebeepka » Sat, Jul 23, 2022, 11:00 PM UTC

belorn wrote: post #504

beebeepka wrote: post #453

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let me put it this way: is me having solar panels making things worse for "the majority"? If so, how? Because it sounded like the usual trope that if a solution does not fix all problems for all humans everywhere, than it it sucks and the person doing what they can is a naive fool, if not a straight up villain.

That is a very strange question. Who in this discussion has said that you having solar panels will make it worse for the majority? What comments in this discussion are saying is that solar panels won't be cost effective, for some or possible the majority of people.

I was responding to a very specific comment.

As for cost effective - subsidies. Big fat subsidies, especially for the poor countries. There are more important things than cost effective. We're all in this together

Re: We're going to need a lot of solar panels

#746

Post by walrus01 » Sat, Jul 23, 2022, 11:04 PM UTC

coryrc wrote: post #380

walrus01 wrote: post #284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I also use sunelec as a general small quantity pricing benchmark, but for the west coast, their prices can be matched from several distributors that ship from California warehouses.

Do you have some recommendations?

krannich solar, minimum quantity will be a pallet

Re: We're going to need a lot of solar panels

#747

Post by cinntaile » Sat, Jul 23, 2022, 11:26 PM UTC

JohnHaugeland wrote: post #743

cinntaile wrote: post #706

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you link to the plant you refer to? This plant is in Wertle and it produces e-gas by splitting water into H2 and O2 and in the next step the H2 reacts with CO2 to give CH4. https://www.audi-mediacenter.com/en/press-releases/new-audi-...

I see that you're continuing to flog the wrong plant by the wrong people for the wrong process, after that was pointed out to you. I can link to it, but I gave you more than enough information to Google it.

This is the 2013 Audi e-gas plant. It is now run by Kiwi AG, the CEO there is the previous boss at Audi e-fuels. So yes, please link what you mean.

Also nobody is talking about making gasoline from air, just to clarify. The process is described in the linked article, it is the same process as the one that this entire topic is about and it is the one I just described.

Re: We're going to need a lot of solar panels

#748

Post by Gibbon1 » Sat, Jul 23, 2022, 11:38 PM UTC

WalterBright wrote: post #325

Gibbon1 wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm more likely to be dubious about the free markets supposedly unique ability to solve problems than not. But buying electricity at $50/mwhr at noon and reselling it at $200 mwh six hours later.

Solar power gets expensive at night.

Yeah that's the source of the arbitrage.

Re: We're going to need a lot of solar panels

#749

Post by lstodd » Sun, Jul 24, 2022, 12:15 AM UTC

whazor wrote: post #710

lutorm wrote: post #683

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Leaking natural gas tends to leave you exploded, too...

There are natural gas leaks on a regular basis here in Europe. It only explodes with a fire source. People smell the gas leak and inform the fire station.

Only if it's doped. Pure methane is odorless.

Re: We're going to need a lot of solar panels

#750

Post by pfdietz » Sun, Jul 24, 2022, 12:24 AM UTC

o_1 wrote: post #682

pfdietz wrote: post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but land costs for example aren’t dropping. In the US, land is widely available at around $1000/acre. The current cost to cover that with PV is around $100,000/acre (depending on the fill factor). So, land costs are not a substantial obstacle to reduction in the cost of PV energy.

1000 per acre, maybe in the Mojave desert with a parcel size over 1000 acres. Acreage near anything that isn't a ghost town is well into 10-20k per acre. Land has an inherit scarcity. Investment funds and even other countries are buying up US Land quickly. Land is always the problem. Proximity and transition are also a problem.

> Acreage near anything that isn't a ghost town is well into 10-20k per acre. Land has an inherit scarcity.

If you look in Zillow you'll see that's very wrong.