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US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

bbc.co.uk

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Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#741

Post by mzs »

kevinpet wrote: post #581

Given COVID prevalence in my state (approx 1 out of 10,000 people test positive each day, so assume 20 out of 10,000 are infectious at the moment), and the IFR for those under 50 of about 0.01% (1 out of 10,000 coincidentally), I would have to come into close contact with 20 people over the time from when I could get the J&J shot to when I could get Pfizer or Moderna. That's not anti-vax denialism, those are the actu…

Birthday paradox means ten not 20 and while I MIGHT be able to go two weeks without encountering ten others my oldest son works at a restaurant, my wife at a school, and my youngest son is full-time HS student. They meet 20 people a day easily and live with me at home.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#742

Post by jackbrookes »

dheera wrote: post #736
js2 wrote: post #702

The risk of dying from a blood clot after receiving the J&J vaccine is six in 6,800,000 (6.8M). The world population is 7,900,000,000 (7.9B). If everyone on the planet got the J&J vaccine tomorrow, and if it is the cause of the clots, then 6,971 people would die from the vaccine. Yesterday, Covid19 killed 8,803 people (according to worldometers). We don't want anyone to die from vaccination, and we don't fully unders…

Why is everyone worried about blood clots, and not that the J&J vaccine has a crap-tastic efficiency of 66.3%? Would you want the chef at your local takeout to be vaccinated to 66.3% efficiency? or 94%? Why was this vaccine even approved, instead of just having J&J produce the same vaccine Pfizer and Moderna are making, which would be in the best interest of the world? Is this some utterly idiotic capitalism bullshit…

The percentage efficacy can be misleading, it is not a like-for-like comparison.

https://www.vox.com/22311625/covid-19-vaccine-efficacy-johns...

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#743

Post by fastball »

Vinnl wrote: post #715
fastball wrote: post #362

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, the problem though is that we have a Tragedy of the Commons situation on our hands. There is a non-negligible portion of the population that wants to have its cake and eat it too – reduce the risk that they will suffer health consequences from COVID-19 by letting everyone else get the vaccine, but not getting the vax themselves, therefore putting their risk from vax at zero.

I think part of the thing that makes this more difficult is that some people already have practically no risk of suffering health consequences from COVID-19, and possibly (but also possibly not) do risk suffering health consequences from the vaccination.

This is not really true, as demonstrated by the PDF linked in the GC.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#744

Post by mzs »

gdubs wrote: post #145

The online argument about this is raging about whether this is a stupid decision and I’d like to side step that well-trodden path of vitriol to ask more broadly: what’s the deal with Covid and blood clotting? I know personally a long hauler who has blood clotting issues and low platelets. They fall into the demographic of concern with the JJ and AZ vaccine. Anecdotally we have lost both a close relative and a young a…

decent layman's explanation - basically similar to heparin induced thrombocytopenia and you should be able to find more describing that:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/13/astrazeneca-bl...

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#745

Post by e9 »

dheera wrote: post #736
js2 wrote: post #702

The risk of dying from a blood clot after receiving the J&J vaccine is six in 6,800,000 (6.8M). The world population is 7,900,000,000 (7.9B). If everyone on the planet got the J&J vaccine tomorrow, and if it is the cause of the clots, then 6,971 people would die from the vaccine. Yesterday, Covid19 killed 8,803 people (according to worldometers). We don't want anyone to die from vaccination, and we don't fully unders…

Why is everyone worried about blood clots, and not that the J&J vaccine has a crap-tastic efficiency of 66.3%? Would you want the chef at your local takeout to be vaccinated to 66.3% efficiency? or 94%? Why was this vaccine even approved, instead of just having J&J produce the same vaccine Pfizer and Moderna are making, which would be in the best interest of the world? Is this some utterly idiotic capitalism bullshit…

This is not full story. 65% efficacy against symptomatic COVID-19 but 100% efficacy against death and hospitalization due to COVID-19. So there is real benefit to it.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#746

Post by dheera »

e9 wrote: post #745
dheera wrote: post #736

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is everyone worried about blood clots, and not that the J&J vaccine has a crap-tastic efficiency of 66.3%? Would you want the chef at your local takeout to be vaccinated to 66.3% efficiency? or 94%? Why was this vaccine even approved, instead of just having J&J produce the same vaccine Pfizer and Moderna are making, which would be in the best interest of the world? Is this some utterly idiotic capitalism bullshit…

This is not full story. 65% efficacy against symptomatic COVID-19 but 100% efficacy against death and hospitalization due to COVID-19. So there is real benefit to it.

Yes, but 65% efficacy still means that 1/3 of the vaccinated people will continue to be spreaders, which doesn't sound great, especially if that allows the virus to spread and evolve into a harsher variety.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#747

Post by [deleted] »

jolux wrote: post #737
sterlind wrote: post #719

Earlier quoted context omitted.

hah, I inject myself with estrogen subcutaneously. it gets absorbed quicker which causes peaks and troughs, but I get to use a smaller needle (25g x 5/8") and I don't have to worry so much about bruising or locating the right sites.

I should ask about subq. My current regimen gives me a lot of anxiety, even though I know it's pretty safe.

[deleted]

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#748

Post by Exmoor »

tacitusarc wrote: post #734
js2 wrote: post #702

The risk of dying from a blood clot after receiving the J&J vaccine is six in 6,800,000 (6.8M). The world population is 7,900,000,000 (7.9B). If everyone on the planet got the J&J vaccine tomorrow, and if it is the cause of the clots, then 6,971 people would die from the vaccine. Yesterday, Covid19 killed 8,803 people (according to worldometers). We don't want anyone to die from vaccination, and we don't fully unders…

6 obvious deaths that we're aware of. The risk of the vaccines is in their novelty and morbidity. An abundance of caution is required in this instance. It would be very bad to discover that there's a vanishingly small chance of blood clots within the first 3 months but a significant chance when paired with other events over the following decade.

You'd have to compare that to the chances of the long term effects of COVID causing issues down the line, which I'm willing to heavily bet is much more likely given what we've seen so far.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#749

Post by MikeCapone »

tacitusarc wrote: post #734
js2 wrote: post #702

The risk of dying from a blood clot after receiving the J&J vaccine is six in 6,800,000 (6.8M). The world population is 7,900,000,000 (7.9B). If everyone on the planet got the J&J vaccine tomorrow, and if it is the cause of the clots, then 6,971 people would die from the vaccine. Yesterday, Covid19 killed 8,803 people (according to worldometers). We don't want anyone to die from vaccination, and we don't fully unders…

6 obvious deaths that we're aware of. The risk of the vaccines is in their novelty and morbidity. An abundance of caution is required in this instance. It would be very bad to discover that there's a vanishingly small chance of blood clots within the first 3 months but a significant chance when paired with other events over the following decade.

There's already been large scale phase 3 trials, and we've deal with vaccines for decades, they're not entirely novel and unknown each time.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#750

Post by titzer »

tacitusarc wrote: post #734
js2 wrote: post #702

The risk of dying from a blood clot after receiving the J&J vaccine is six in 6,800,000 (6.8M). The world population is 7,900,000,000 (7.9B). If everyone on the planet got the J&J vaccine tomorrow, and if it is the cause of the clots, then 6,971 people would die from the vaccine. Yesterday, Covid19 killed 8,803 people (according to worldometers). We don't want anyone to die from vaccination, and we don't fully unders…

6 obvious deaths that we're aware of. The risk of the vaccines is in their novelty and morbidity. An abundance of caution is required in this instance. It would be very bad to discover that there's a vanishingly small chance of blood clots within the first 3 months but a significant chance when paired with other events over the following decade.

I wish people applied this much caution to the virus. Who knows what cancers it causes 10 years down the road.
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