Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

twitter.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

731–736 of 736 posts

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#731

Post by nozzlegear »

solenoid0937 wrote: post #321
dgellow wrote: post #317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No? They are actively in the race, what are you talking about

By "the race" I mean "the frontier, and the race to superintelligence." They are categorically behind. The best they can do with the capacity they have is to distill US models, but that doesn't enable them to reach the scale needed to leapfrog the US in the race to superintelligence.

"Superintelligence" is a convenient marketing myth that the American AI companies use to justify their pursuit of regulatory capture. There is no "race to superintelligence," just a race to rent seeking.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#732

Post by zrn900 »

aspenmartin wrote: post #630
zrn900 wrote: post #620

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nope. If China were not banned from US-controlled chips, it would be importing chips at much higher prices, therefore getting less bang for its buck while strengthening competitors with its money in the process. Instead, the US banned China from chips and lithography machines, giving China the legal excuse to start producing them domestically without violating WTO rules. Now China produces cheap chips and uses them w…

> Nope. If China were not banned from US-controlled chips, it would be importing chips at much higher prices, therefore getting less bang for its buck while strengthening competitors with its money in the process. Nowhere near the value of having access to chips, at any cost. They have extremely deep pockets. They already pay 6x the cost per FLOP. > Instead, the US banned China from chips and lithography machines, gi…

> Nowhere near the value of having access to chips, at any cost. T

Disagree. Anything produced in the Eu or other US satellites is priced as high as possible. One could say that allowing China to buy those chips would have been a bigger drain on the Chinese AI budget.

> You think without export restrictions China wouldn't be doing the exact same thing?

I dont think it. China did not do it and stuck by the WTO rules after going through so many hoops to get in. Then the US decided that China was too competitive and started ignoring WTO rules.

> You are right that this greases the wheels, they are further along than they would have been without export restrictions, but they are still delayed even with the reduced friction

Disagree. Restrictions might have hampered them somewhat at the start, but setting up their own infrastructure as fast as China does and scaling it up as big and as fast as China does would eliminate any delay in a flash.

> I think this is too cynical. Neither one of us is in the room to actually observe the real decision making, but export restrictions as a strategy are not some "dumbf-ck aristocratic elite" thing. They are perfectly rational from a strategic standpoint and arguably doing what they're supposed to do.

Nope. The narcissism and aristocracy of the US elite is well documented all the way since the 60s since the biggest ongoing social study on the matter (from UCSC) literally mapped it:

https://whorulesamerica.ucsc.edu/power/class_domination.html

Below is a more street-speak version of all of this if you wouldn't prefer to read the full study above:

https://makesenseworld.substack.com/p/narcissists-are-destro...

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#733

Post by AdieuToLogic »

Schiendelman wrote: post #675
slopinthebag wrote: post #669

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, you said it yourself, you don't believe software quality matters unless it "impacts the business". > It's just irrelevant how bad code is unless it impacts the business So the negative effects of poor code quality are completely irrelevant to you as long as they don't affect the bottom line. Sorry if you think I'm being rude. I think it's ruder to make peoples lives worse because you only care about profits.

So you've got this low code quality that somehow doesn't impact product quality but at the same time makes someone's life worse? Can you give me a concrete example? Help me understand. I'm coming at this from having been in test for a long time before product, I care quite a bit about cquality, so it's really fascinating to see you respond this way.

> So you've got this low code quality that somehow doesn't impact product quality ...

Low quality code always impacts product quality in a negative manner. That is why it is "low quality code."

"High quality code" also impacts product quality, but in the predictably positive manner; fewer defects, ability to be enhanced, understandable behavior, etc.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#734

Post by AdieuToLogic »

nomel wrote: post #672
hack1312 wrote: post #662

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s hardly rude, let alone “extremely” rude. People who are transgender are straight up told to kill themselves daily on social media by bigots and you’re melting down over someone having the temerity to question some random account’s (ie, you) credentials? Grow some thicker skin.

It's definitely rude to suggest someone is lying.

> It's definitely rude to suggest someone is lying.

Please consider the context of my quotation which I documented elsewhere in this thread.

A person wrote:

>> This is a site full of developers who are convinced that "proper software engineering" is 100% of what makes a business successful, and everything and everyone else is useless.

To which the person claiming said managerial title responded with:

> As a technical product manager, this 1000%.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#735

Post by burnerRhodov3 »

surgical_fire wrote: post #653
WarmWash wrote: post #588

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is an authoritarian ethnostate with mock capitalism experiments. If you want to climb into Xi Jinpeng's garden where he has absolute uncontested unilateral control for life, well, be warned.

I want to climb nothing. I said that the EU should have normal relations with China. It has no reason to inherit the US anxiety about China being a contender in the world stage. Trade with it normally, do trade deals where it makes sense, use reciprocity and protectionism where it fits. This should be pretty uncontroversial.

>Trade with it normally, do trade deals where it makes sense, use reciprocity and protectionism where it fits.

This is extremely controversial. Where do you draw the line? Ev's are okay, cause the climate... Oh, wait, our own car industry dies? It's okay competition! Oh wait... They have no min wage or safety standards? Oh shit, where'd our auto industry go...? Oh, guess that didn't make sense... Lets tarrif...

And on and on and on, with every industry.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#736

Post by stymaar »

Rover222 wrote: post #634

The Chinese are clearly great at distilling current SOTA models. And yes they are crushing on energy infra buildout, especially with American NIMBYs and general Marxist degrowth mindsets. They still don't have a clear path to create their own SOTA models, especially if American ones become more and more locked down, and they can't distill so easily. Honestly I think the SpaceX orbital plan is the only hope of maintai…

> American Marxist degrowth mindsets.

A literal Communist dictatorship is winning the race thanks to their 5-years plans yet you still think the problem is “too much Marxism in the US”.

What an utterly deranged take.

Post reply on HN