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The West forgot how to make things, now it’s forgetting how to code

techtrenches.dev

731–740 of 896 posts

Re: The West forgot how to make things, now it’s forgetting how to code

#731
post #17

The real issue, in my view, is not AI itself. The problem is a management pattern: removing people and organizational slack because they don’t generate immediate profit, and then expecting the knowledge to still be there when it’s needed. Short-term cost cutting leads to less junior hiring, and removes the slack that experienced engineers need in order to teach. As a result, tacit knowledge stops being transferred. W…

I feel like it’s something more fundamental and broad than that. We slowly remove excuses to talk to other people. The thought crossed my mind the other day — if I’m asking the AI a question, that’s replacing a human interaction I would have had with a coworker. It’s not just in coding, it’s everything. With ChatGPT always available in your pocket, what social interactions is it replacing? The thing that gets me is,…

Apps like Doordash have introduced me to many good restaurants which I've then visited in person.

Re: The West forgot how to make things, now it’s forgetting how to code

#732

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US is stuck in this weird irony where they recognize that Soviet-style central planning is a disaster but can't recognize that it's what megacorps do when they're insulated from competition. Internal politics, perverse incentives and a system that can sustain massive inefficiencies right up until the point that it doesn't. In general productive economic activity generates a surplus and that surplus allows for sla…

I wonder if it would work if top US companies implemented a system like the NFL draft, where companies competing for top engineers out of college get to pick from the best engineers inversely proportionally based on how they did before financially. While it sounds counter intuitive, it maintains a good distribution of talent across the industry. But that system would only work if healthy competition was the goal, not…

The thing that sustains these companies isn't having the best engineers.

Suppose someone new made a better mobile OS than Android. What would happen?

Google has convinced a lot of third party apps to use their anti-competitive attestation system that has no real security value but makes it so those apps won't run on a competing operating system even if it implements all of the same APIs, so it immediately has a major barrier to gaining traction. That should be an antitrust violation.

Then the incumbents would copy any innovative features the new OS has so it no longer has an advantage. On paper this is what the patent system is supposed to prevent, but in practice is does the opposite. If you as a practicing entity tried to sue a major incumbent for patent infringement, they would counter-sue and have an arsenal of thousands of patents that could keep you bogged down in litigation for years. Just the cost of litigation could bankrupt a smaller company even if they won, and there is enough ambiguity in the system that they're pretty likely to lose when the incumbent only has to find one patent out of thousands they were unintentionally infringing, or a court is willing to enforce one that ought not to have been granted. So then everyone has to file a bunch of patents for the purposes of mutually-assured destruction and can't really enforce them, which favors larger companies that can afford the overhead. It certainly doesn't protect the little guy and we would be better off without them.

Your suggestion is also essentially unworkable. NFL teams all have the same number of players and play the same game. Amazon and TSMC each have a very different business and largely aren't competing for the same people. Does Garmin get the same number of picks as Foxconn even though they don't employ nearly as many people? How many picks does a startup get? Do we count Apple as doing poorly because the gross margins on hardware are lower than they are on pure licensing, or Nvidia as doing poorly because they have higher margins but lower revenue? How are we accounting for engineers in other countries? What about engineers in China who work for companies in China who are contractors for international companies? What if a corporate contractor has more than one corporate customer? How do we account for open source? How do we distinguish engineers from IT staff or research mathematicians or prevent companies from giving willing workers a job description that doesn't match the work they're doing?

It's also probably worth pointing out that systems like that are essentially price fixing schemes by the industry to pay workers less than they would otherwise be able to get if other companies weren't prohibited from outbidding them for talent.

Re: The West forgot how to make things, now it’s forgetting how to code

#733

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Profit maximization" on its own would have left most people working 12+ hours a day 6 days a week, like it was very common in the 19th century. Luckily, it's never been the only force shaping our societies.

Working long hours was necessary in those days because productivity was much lower. Productivity has gone up so much people can work a lot less, and vast part of the population doesn't work at all.

Working long hours was not necessary in those days, it was forced upon people by declining wages as profit was transferred from individuals, families, and small businesses towards the capital class. The entire movement to introduce the 40 hour work week was based on people wanting to reduce their hours towards what their grandparents worked and survived on. The entire luddite movement was based on declining wages and worsening work conditions compared to the generations before them.

Re: The West forgot how to make things, now it’s forgetting how to code

#734
post #538

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is, in the minds of these people 'firing at 100% all the time' generally means doing busywork and/or thinking of ways to cheat/manipulate their customers and the market for maximum gain whole delivering minimum value. I would have loved to be 100% engaged working on solving real problems in honest ways at some of my past jobs, but alas MBA/marketing leadership, which has taken over much of tech has very l…

Profit maximization is a continuous process that has generated our high standard of living. P.S. I welcome all attempts to prove me wrong!

I would argue that profit maximization has had very many effects.

On the one side, it has succeeded at reducing costs, which has indeed given rich societies unprecedented access to consumer goods.

On the other, it has outsourced from us both jobs and knowledge, which has resulted in higher unemployment and dissatisfaction, with as consequences the political dominoes we see falling internationally. That and the shoddy US health system (which the rest of the world seems to have decided to follow, for some reason).

And there is the small fact that we're in the process of optimizing the planet to death, and that not-so-rich countries (as well as formerly-rich ones) have starved to death for this high standard of living.

So, let's appreciate our standard of living, but not assume that it's necessarily a good thing in the grand scheme of things.

Re: The West forgot how to make things, now it’s forgetting how to code

#735

AI isn't making us forget, and we aren't in the process of forgetting. We forgot, past tense, in 2015. The rise of coding bootcamps destroyed the historic knowledge and expertise of professional software developers. Waves and waves of people joined the tech workforce, without taking the years of experience required to learn how programming, and professional software development, should work. The result was a lot of r…

> Since 2018 I haven't met anyone who has read an entire technical manual on a framework, library, or tool that they use every day.

That presumes that they still build frameworks, libraries and tools with technical manuals worth reading.

Re: The West forgot how to make things, now it’s forgetting how to code

#736

“Money was never the constraint. Knowledge was.” The irony is how difficult it is to read this obviously AI-generated article due to its unnatural prose and choppy flow full of LLM-isms. The ability to write is also a skill that atrophies. Even when AI is understandably used due to language fluency, I’d prefer to read an AI translation over a generated article. If you don’t care enough to write it, why should I care…

> obviously AI-generated article

how can you tell?

Re: The West forgot how to make things, now it’s forgetting how to code

#737

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which country experiencing communism at any point in time didn't export any products?

The Soviet Union. I don't recall ever seeing USSR products in stores, while plenty of manufactured goods from other countries were. (By products I meant manufactured products, not extracted resources like oil.)

I got some Soviet Union produced wrenches and drill from my great grandfather and East Germany made drill bits from an auction despite nobody in my family living outside the US in 120 years. No it isn't common, but I wouldn't expect the Soviet Union's biggest rival to be importing many of their products to start with, so the fact I possess them at all is decent evidence of their significant production volume.

Re: The West forgot how to make things, now it’s forgetting how to code

#738
post #17

The real issue, in my view, is not AI itself. The problem is a management pattern: removing people and organizational slack because they don’t generate immediate profit, and then expecting the knowledge to still be there when it’s needed. Short-term cost cutting leads to less junior hiring, and removes the slack that experienced engineers need in order to teach. As a result, tacit knowledge stops being transferred. W…

> The problem is a management pattern: removing people and organizational slack because they don’t generate immediate profit, and then expecting the knowledge to still be there when it’s needed.

Exactly. In direct contrast to this would be how Xerox and Bell funded laboratories just to pursue knowledge, without demands of profit. They ended up creating incredibly profitable things when driven my knowledge, and not profit.

I also read a book about math where the author argued that while the Greeks were driven to pursue truth for truth's sake, they ended up being far more productive and innovative. The Romans who were more driven to work for solutions to immediate practical needs, ended up being not so productive and innovative. He used this as a defense for efforts in pure math that seems to have no immediate application but ends up being massively, surprisingly powerful and productive for practical applications down the road. I think the same could be said for software development focussed on truth and correctness, rather than immediate productivity.

Re: The West forgot how to make things, now it’s forgetting how to code

#739

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Multiplication is elementary school math which doesn't require any thinking and the learned approach is simple. You can't really compare the simple stuff that's taught to kids, like basic multiplication or riding a bike with stuff that requires domain-specific knowledge and experience. Think more stuff like "find the angle of lines defined by (x-4y-1=0) and (x-y-2=0)", "write the number 2026 in base 7", "solve an equ…

> Think more stuff like "find the angle of lines defined by (x-4y-1=0) and (x-y-2=0)", "write the number 2026 in base 7", "solve an equation sin^2(x) - sin(x) = 0". > I plucked these from our country's high school final exam from this year. Back when I was in high school, I did mine in 60 minutes without an error when the time limit is 150 minutes and I intuitively immediately knew how to approach each task since the…

Depends on the complexity of the task. That's what I tried to hint at by also mentioning college-level math. For the high-school level tasks yeah, couple of hours and I'd be as fast as I was in high school again. For the number in another base it could be as quick as less than 1 hour as again that's a simpler task than the other two.

For derivations/integrations it'd take more time. Less than what it took me to learn them in the first place, for sure. But still a lot more than 1 hour.

Cause I forgot how to "do them" in the first place, which is what the discussion was about in the first place. I still know the "theory" behind, so I can "figure it out" if needed without needing anyone to "instruct" me, or needing "classes" to learn how to do them. But essentially all the "practice" I had back then is forgotten.

And again the same goes for code and technology knowledge, which is what the discussion was about in the first place.

As a senior developer with 10+ years of experience I've already encountered situations where I needed knowledge I knew I had at some point, but already forgot. In my case as a backend developer working for the same company for 5+ years my favorite example is payments processing. There are tons of special/edge cases - e.g. how a failed recurring payment during a subscription is processed. That's something you set up once, then don't touch for years, and suddenly need to study again if a change is needed. How a subscription goes "past due", what you can do in that case, what your code actually does, how it reverts to correct state once a retried payment follows through, what options you offer a customer if his payment method expired and he wants to switch it, ...

And this is also a good example why "domain knowledge" and "code ownership" is a good thing in larger companies. Because under usual circumstances I don't have to deal with these, cause we have a dedicated person who's maintaining the payment-related code. I only fill in in urgent cases happening when he's on vacation.

And juniors designing stuff like this AI-first without properly thinking about all these cases won't learn all the edge cases this flow can contain. So if something goes wrong, you end up with nobody who has the "maintainer experience" for that code - you don't have the one person who is knowledgeable about that topic - everyone in your company is in the same spot as me - having to research the topics again to understand them enough to be able to debug the incident which happened.

Re: The West forgot how to make things, now it’s forgetting how to code

#740

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which country experiencing communism at any point in time didn't export any products?

The Soviet Union. I don't recall ever seeing USSR products in stores, while plenty of manufactured goods from other countries were. (By products I meant manufactured products, not extracted resources like oil.)

I think that may have been a result of the political divide of that era. The USSR did export some machinery and arms, but those were traded largely within other Communist countries and "third world" countries.
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