731–740 of 741 posts
They really need to regulate this things. Like people could spoof markets and stuff so easily. Do things that would be traditionally illegal in regular markets but not predication markets.
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Those predictions are just market data, market data is often very expensive (my data usage at work is probably about $100k a year and i'm not even a trader), I imagine polymarket will be too when they are more established.
It's inherently free data. You have to be able to trade against it, and to trade against it you need to see it _before_ you give them money, so they can basically never charge for it. When they sell it to people, it's just laziness, they could scrape it themselves. edit: apparently they do, that's even more wild lol
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I'm curious what positive externalities you're thinking about? Being able to make plans for the future?
A male in a country that is about to enter a war could decide to leave to avoid conscription, depending on the odds
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That's vague enough to be more or less meaningless, where specifically do you see positive externalities outweighing the numerous negative ones?
If that strikes you as vague, I strongly recommend you to read at least an LLM summary of "The Use of Knowledge in Society".
The article’s “worst case” is not dark enough. The real evil is when someone ensures the famine occurs so they can profit from an outside betting position.
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I can't believe people are throwing so much money on zero/negative sum games that on average have no benefit to anyone including yourself. I mean I know gambling is a thing but at least we are counting that as an addiction. But we seem to take polymarket more seriously.
With proper constraints, there is a major positive externality in aggregating public and private information through market mechanisms. Robin Hanson wrote about this subject extensively. Dismissing it outright as a zero-sum game is a bit naive.
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The often-repeated "wisdom of the crowds" justification is misapplied to online betting markets. Like people, crowds can either be wise or unwise depending on the situation. Famous experiments like guessing how many gumballs are in a jar work because each person who can see the jar has a source of valid information, and in aggregate that can be surprisingly accurate. You can't assume that the majority of individuals…
Nobody says this on assumption. It's well-evidenced. https://polymarket.com/accuracy https://www.metaculus.com/questions/track-record/
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This is the literally the only use of prediction markets in the real world - insider trading leaks information
>literally the only use I live in Taiwan Can you find me an insurance company that will pay me out in case of a war with China? From what I see absolutely no one will insure that. A $1k premium paid to Polymarket will cover me handsomely in the event of war and pay out instantly with no hassles. A counterpoint to your hyperbole.
It’s true for Taiwan but could you do it for your personal health? I suppose in the future you might have a prediction market for your health vs health insurance! Who knows ? There are só many circles of capitalist hell we might yet invent, but i hope not.
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Nobody says this on assumption. It's well-evidenced. https://polymarket.com/accuracy https://www.metaculus.com/questions/track-record/
Well-evidenced by marketing from those same betting markets, got it.