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Global warming has accelerated significantly

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Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#731

Post by digdugdirk »

logicchains wrote: post #719
jihadjihad wrote: post #510

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because they are practicing the reverse scientific method. They hold a conclusion in their hand, like, man-made climate change is a hoax , and seek to find any threads of "evidence" that support their foregone conclusion.

The scientific method is making testable predictions. You can look back 10, 20, 30, 40 years at the predictions of sea level rise made by climate scientists, and the sea level today is nowhere near where they predicted it would rise to. If someone's continuously making incorrect predictions it's not reasonable to assume their predictions will suddenly become accurate, especially when there's no feedback loop to weed…

Systems are complicated. Given there are numerous predicted outcomes (it's not just about the actual measured sea-level rise, after all) and many of those predictions are coming to pass far earlier than hoped, it might be worth having an open mind to the fact that sometimes people who devote their lives to studying something might be worth listening to.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#732

Post by xandrius »

shrubby wrote: post #567

We could chop of a quarter of total emissions (directly + rewilding effect) by ending factory animal production and swapping to plant based. Another quarter from the top 5 percent emissions that have practically nothing to do with the wellbeing, but only social comparison mechanisms (envy, herd mentality). But for that humanity would need leaders that are not either idiots, corrupt or spineless and toothless. But hey…

I can barely get some people to do a week off eating red meat, imagine going cold turkey completely. If people haven't revolted about other stuff they definitely will for saving their meat consumption.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#733

Post by danny_codes »

mempko wrote: post #460
sulam wrote: post #295

FWIW my personal assessment is that this acceleration is both real and largely out of our control. Models in the past did not attempt to account for non-anthropogenic carbon emissions, but as we experience further warming, most especially in the Arctic, feedback loops and tipping points mean that this (carbon emissions caused by “natural” processes) are becoming more evident. This is especially sensitive because a la…

Regarding carbon capture, it will take more energy to capture the carbon than we burned putting it up there in the first place. Alan Kay, who actually did some systems work on the environment, explained it to me that the climate system is like an upside down coke bottle. It doesn't take much energy to tip it over, but it takes a lot more to put it back up. In other words, we shouldn't have tipped it over in the first…

Physically that’s not the case.

Scaled up nuclear power could be had for $3-4B a gigawatt/h. We waste say $1T a year on basic things, like not having universal healthcare. So a simple policy change would let us build about 300 reactors a years, after some scaling period. The excess energy can be used to turn C02 back into oil.

It’s not technically that difficult, we just chose to waste money on stupid things and rich people toys instead.

Energy abundance is simply the choose to build nuclear power plants at scale

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#734

Post by wewtyflakes »

alexk307 wrote: post #712
_aavaa_ wrote: post #523

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The argument isn’t that the whole earth becomes inhospitable. But that certain regions do, and the rest will have their climate differ drastically. If you live on the coast and the water level rises, your home is inhospitable, even if someone 100mi inland is fine. If you live in a region that usually was 90F in the summer and is now >110F regularly, that’s going to cause problem.

There isn't enough fossil fuels in the ground for us to burn to cause a 20F+ increase in annual summer temperatures globally...

Their argument is not predicated on a 20F+ temp rise globally; their argument is about regions.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#735

Post by tlogan »

gzread wrote: post #451
01100011 wrote: post #356

Earlier quoted context omitted.

CA buying gasoline from Bermuda, shipped via the Panama Canal, because it refuses to allow new refineries is the perfect demonstration of this.

That's also kind of a pigovian tax though, right? By making gasoline more expensive they discourage its use. I guess they're chicken to make it an actual tax Also why wouldn't it come from other US states? Seems easier

Sadly, it does not come from other states. It comes from other countries which, amazingly, tend to have much less strict environmental regulations.

Yes, California is a little cleaner because we have fewer refineries and gas is more expensive, but globally we are probably about even.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#736

Post by danny_codes »

tsoukase wrote: post #565
imglorp wrote: post #482

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> direct air capture is the primary escape hatch We MUST MUST MUST stop burning things. Stop it. - We are still mining and burning coal. This is incomprehensible. US, AU, etc Eg: https://www.nacoal.com/our-operations - We are still subsidizing oil to around $1T/year, not counting oil wars. Yes it will take some grid and storage upgrades (US) and continue to embrace renewables. It would be cheaper than the oil subsidy…

Stopping burning fuel now will return us centuries in the past, I suppose to about 1700. Twenty years ago it would return us to 1500. Then a handful of people had heating in their homes and a horse to travel. This will happen again if we stop burning now.

Bro what are you talking about. Nuclear power exists. You simply scale one we have now by 10x and buy BYDs EV capacity for 5 years and you’re done.

It’s not even particularly expensive relative to GDP.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#738

Post by orthecreedence »

tzs wrote: post #702
tgsovlerkhgsel wrote: post #385

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Prices are a great incentive. In Germany, 1 kWh of electricity costs roughly 3x as much as 1 kWh of gas. That doesn't make heat pumps very attractive. Historically the differences were even worse. Relying on people individually making choices that are better for the environment at a disadvantage for themselves is not going to work.

A gas furnace produces at most 1 kWh of heat from 1 kWh of gas. A heat pumps produces 3-4 kWh of heat from 1 kWh of electricity. If electricity is 3x as much as gas per kWh the heat pump should be less expensive to operate. Plus, it also gives you AC which comes in handy if you live someplace where you want AC.

> If electricity is 3x as much as gas per kWh the heat pump should be less expensive to operate.

This would be true if heat pumps were free. But "less expensive to operate" needs to justify cost of installation over some measurable period of time. If electricity is 3x more expensive than gas, and the heat pump is 3-4x (2.5-3.5x realistically) then you're barely squeeking by except on the days when the pump is most efficient (when it's already warm out). That 3.5 - 3 leaves 0.5, amortized over the lifetime of the heat pump...might not even pay for installation.

So, make heat pumps free or energy cheaper, I guess.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#739

Post by alexk307 »

wewtyflakes wrote: post #734
alexk307 wrote: post #712

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There isn't enough fossil fuels in the ground for us to burn to cause a 20F+ increase in annual summer temperatures globally...

Their argument is not predicated on a 20F+ temp rise globally; their argument is about regions.

Most of the increase in local temperatures are overnight lows in the Winter. I'm not sure there's any peer-reviewed mechanism to suggest that daytime Summer highs will increase 20F+ due to greenhouse gases in any parts of the world.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#740

Post by carlosjobim »

WarmWash wrote: post #174
ecshafer wrote: post #134

The issue with any significant steps to curbing the climate or environmental impacts with laws or treaties is always: But the economy. It creates an incentive where someone doesn't follow the laws, burn everything they can to accelerate their economy, and take industry from other countries. My proposal is thus: create a supranational treaty organization with a EPA like authority(or whatever the European equivalent is…

The real problem is that everyone has to sacrifice, but half the people think there is no problem and then other half thinks only corporations need to sacrifice (and are unwilling to sacrifice themselves).

One rule which always holds true in life: people who ask for sacrifice will never sacrifice an inch themselves. No matter what cause.
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