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Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

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Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#731

Post by frm88 »

f1shy wrote: post #729
frm88 wrote: post #726

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A 10 second look: the garage place for one car is an extra 20k. The heating is 27 years old, so are the bathroom installations and the kitchen. I, personally don't want to sit on a 27 year old loo. To get this on to a modern level - at least another 50k. Edit: I just checked on the laws etc. 2-wire electric installations are no longer allowed and property owners are obligated to renew them. In this case that would ha…

That of the 2 wire is just wrong. At this point I do not know if you want to win the discussion or what. I live in a 2 wire-wired house. As long as I do not change the installation, is all ok. Wann die Änderung verpflichtend ist Bei Neuanlagen: Die klassische Nullung darf seit 1973 nicht mehr für neue Installationen verwendet werden. Bei Modernisierungen: Wenn im Rahmen von Renovierungen oder Erweiterungen gearbeitet…

The point about the bathrooms and tiles isn't about perfectionism, it's about mould. After 27 years of use I'd renovate wet usage rooms to reduce the health risk for my children. The same goes for the kitchen.

If the owner community decides on a heat pump, the wiring will have to be completely renewed. If the owner community decides on a modern oil heating system, the wiring will have to be renewed.

Parking your cars in the street while there is the option for a garage is somewhat antisocial, but let's not moralise. The garage is not optional, it's not sondereigentum or else it would have to be mentioned, so you'll have to pay.

What you are buying with this property is major financial uncertainty. There is a reason for this price.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#732

Post by roenxi »

engeljohnb wrote: post #730
roenxi wrote: post #722

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Cost of total rewire was quoted $30,000. We didn't end up buying that house, but 30k is honestly a drop in the bucket when you're talking about numbers as huge as 180k It's 15%. That is a substantial chunk of the whole. > Our electricity bill is usually ~$200/month. This is not what eats most of our paycheck. Our mortgage is far and away our biggest expense. Your mortgage is what, 20 years? $200 x 12 x 20 ~= $50,00…

You said > If they're happy to do it to 1970s standards, probably most of them [could support a family on one income with an ordinary job]. Our house has the same electrical wiring that it did in 1969. The couple that sold us the house told us they bought it for $20k, which means a cashier could have afforded it back then, but now it's too expensive. Therefore, the fact that it has electricity has no bearing on wheth…

Fair enough, call it 50s lifestyle then. I looked it up and if we're talking about the US as a benchmark then turns out [0] the 70s was when women were basically finishing the process of integrating into the workforce. That wasn't an era where one man could support a family. Families were working with a duel income.

Point is that one working man isn't enough horsepower to support a family to modern living standards and never has been. The standard that one person could support was low and in practical terms has only improved over time.

> Median income doesn't matter to my point. Housing prices have skyrocketed to the point that most people can't buy a house on one income.

It matters a lot, that can't be asserted that without considering the ratio of income to house prices - the median income, in nominal terms, has skyrocketed too. Whether the median income or house prices rocketed more and by how much is quite material. If male full time earners are making $90k/year in an area, for example, then a $180k/year house could be said to be quite affordable to a single-income family.

If house prices in my area dropped to $180k then people would be talking about how wonderfully cheap housing had gotten and how great it was now that every young couple could afford a house.

> So this is already contradicting what you said earlier if you're citing electricity as the reason no one can afford a house on one income.

I don't think I actually said that initially, but the numbers you've quoted have convinced me it is at least partially true. The electrical costs appear to be comparable to the amount of money that the house cost according to the numbers you suggested. That is a significant factor in what people can afford. If they avoid almost half a house's worth of expenses then that will go a long way towards being able to afford a house.

[0] https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics/women-labor-force.htm

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#733

Post by zwnow »

f1shy wrote: post #721
zwnow wrote: post #693

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ill fly to Japan next year. First foreign country vacation in 14 years. Estimated costs 3-4k. I go to concerts every few months so I spend a few hundred bucks there. Other than that most of my money goes into rent and food. I have some somewhat expensive contracts though. 50€ phone, 50€ internet. Going out is living life though, I wont reduce my quality of life for decades just so I can afford a house. But in short,…

You are certainly not the type I am referring to. Even if you cut all that, will not help a lot. Anayway my story: never ever sid vacation abroad.Vacation outside my home only every 2 or 3 years. Never eat out. I have no idea how is it to go to a concert. No expensive hobbies. When I was 40 all of that provided 40k for a down payment. I do not regret it.

I can manage to save 500-1000€ per month. For me the biggest issue is just the general pricing. Maybe its emotional too, but I have fond memories of my family house when I was a kid and I dont want to buy comparatively a bungalow for quadruple the price.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#734

Post by panick21_ »

LtWorf wrote: post #700
panick21_ wrote: post #635

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And yet in the real world people buying labobous at insane rates.

The very same people that 40 years ago would have bought a home instead yes. Now they can no longer do that so might as well blow the money on stuff.

> might as well blow the money on stuff.

Or you know, don't do that and buy a home when you are 40 instead of 25.

People who do save an have good discipline, and don't have children to early still do pretty well.

The culture of 'yolo just get a credit card with 18 and max it out for video game skins' is literally losing people 100000s over their lifetime.

Yes buying a house is not as easy as before, but the doomerism a solution. You can rent and be save. Renting isn't inherently worse for you in the long, that just myth.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#735

Post by f1shy »

zwnow wrote: post #733
f1shy wrote: post #721

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are certainly not the type I am referring to. Even if you cut all that, will not help a lot. Anayway my story: never ever sid vacation abroad.Vacation outside my home only every 2 or 3 years. Never eat out. I have no idea how is it to go to a concert. No expensive hobbies. When I was 40 all of that provided 40k for a down payment. I do not regret it.

I can manage to save 500-1000€ per month. For me the biggest issue is just the general pricing. Maybe its emotional too, but I have fond memories of my family house when I was a kid and I dont want to buy comparatively a bungalow for quadruple the price.

TBH, if the german economy keeps in this track, at some point the prices will go down... the problem is at that point everything will go down.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#736

Post by franktankbank »

saxenaabhi wrote: post #678
jcgrillo wrote: post #665

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Without rigorous, controlled study I'm not ready to accept claims of velocity, efficiency, etc. I'm a professional software engineer, I have tried various AI tools in the workplace both for code review and development. I found personally that they were more harmful than effective. But I don't think my personal experience is really important data here. Just like I don't think yours is. What matters is whether these to…

> You have the opportunity here to convince me, I want to believe there is some merit to this latest AI summer. But I am not seeing the evidence for it. As I said the evidence is in companies not hiring anymore since they don't need as many developers as before. If you want rigorous controlled studies you'll get it in due time. In the meantime maybe just look into the workflows of how people are using re AI skeptics:…

months worth of credits? What does that mean?

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#737

Post by franktankbank »

saxenaabhi wrote: post #513
skydhash wrote: post #502

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Productive how? If you’re not measuring the thing, how can you tell that the thing improved?

Feature velocity has increase manifold. And this is despite decreased team size. A small startup now has the chance to compete with incumbents without raising from VCs. Not talking about you, but I think cynics just look at it with too much pessimism and therefore can't see it.

I agree, the first thing I asked copilot to write me was a feature estimator:

def mult2(points): return 2xpoints

Its going to be really interesting what happens to this labor pool once you've finally sunk all the ships youre let aboard.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#738

Post by red-iron-pine »

cedws wrote: post #137
OptionOfT wrote: post #114

Interestingly I think if the AI succeed at the level that a lot of these CEOs hope we're not much better off either. And the sentiment that goes around is more: reduce the amount of people needed to do the same amount of work: https://www.theregister.com/2025/10/09/mckinsey_ai_monetizat... > McKinsey says, while quoting an HR executive at a Fortune 100 company griping: "All of these copilots are supposed to make work…

I don't even know what the selling point of AI is for regular people. In the 60s it was possible for a man to work an ordinary job, buy a house, settle down with a wife and support two or three children. That's completely out of the realm of reality for many young people now and the plummeting birth rates show it. The middle class have financially benefited very little from the past 20+ years of productivity gains. S…

> In the 60s it was possible for a man to work an ordinary job, buy a house, settle down with a wife and support two or three children. That's completely out of the realm of reality for many young people now and the plummeting birth rates show it.

Wasn't like that in 1800s, or the 1910s, or the Great Depression, etc.

World Wars happened and all of the industrial nations got bombed to hell and lost a generation or two.

The US didn't have that happen and was able to provide unprecedented prosperity for the Greatest Generation and Boomers because it would take 30+ years to truly rebuild and grow their population.

Sure enough the wheels started falling off in the 70's and 80s, and only technological growth kept the US on top. And that's slipping.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#739

Post by alwa »

engeljohnb wrote: post #730
roenxi wrote: post #722

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Cost of total rewire was quoted $30,000. We didn't end up buying that house, but 30k is honestly a drop in the bucket when you're talking about numbers as huge as 180k It's 15%. That is a substantial chunk of the whole. > Our electricity bill is usually ~$200/month. This is not what eats most of our paycheck. Our mortgage is far and away our biggest expense. Your mortgage is what, 20 years? $200 x 12 x 20 ~= $50,00…

You said > If they're happy to do it to 1970s standards, probably most of them [could support a family on one income with an ordinary job]. Our house has the same electrical wiring that it did in 1969. The couple that sold us the house told us they bought it for $20k, which means a cashier could have afforded it back then, but now it's too expensive. Therefore, the fact that it has electricity has no bearing on wheth…

They bought it for $20K in 1969, or am I misunderstanding?

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/ suggests that’s almost exactly $180K in 2025 dollars…

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#740

Post by jennyholzer »

anthonypasq wrote: post #650
jennyholzer wrote: post #556

Earlier quoted context omitted.

to be fair, they don't work

if you described claude code to anyone from 5 years ago, they would tell its sci-fi magic dream land.

if you described claude code in 2025 to anyone from 1 year ago, they would tell you it's gotten worse.
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