It is frequently suggested that once one of the AI companies reaches an AGI threshold, they will take off ahead of the rest. It's interesting to note that at least so far, the trend has been the opposite: as time goes on and the models get better, the performance of the different company's gets clustered closer together. Right now GPT-5, Claude Opus, Grok 4, Gemini 2.5 Pro all seem quite good across the board (ie the…
GPT-5
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Re: GPT-5
#732It is frequently suggested that once one of the AI companies reaches an AGI threshold, they will take off ahead of the rest. It's interesting to note that at least so far, the trend has been the opposite: as time goes on and the models get better, the performance of the different company's gets clustered closer together. Right now GPT-5, Claude Opus, Grok 4, Gemini 2.5 Pro all seem quite good across the board (ie the…
But I doubt we will ever see a fully autonomous, reliable AGI system.
Re: GPT-5
#733It is frequently suggested that once one of the AI companies reaches an AGI threshold, they will take off ahead of the rest. It's interesting to note that at least so far, the trend has been the opposite: as time goes on and the models get better, the performance of the different company's gets clustered closer together. Right now GPT-5, Claude Opus, Grok 4, Gemini 2.5 Pro all seem quite good across the board (ie the…
It's also worth considering that past some threshold, it may be very difficult for us as users to discern which model is better. I don't think thats what's going on here, but we should be ready for it. For example, if you are an ELO 1000 chess player would you yourself be able to tell if Magnus Carlson or another grandmaster were better by playing them individually? To the extent that our AGI/SI metrics are based on…
Re: GPT-5
#734There is no intelligence here: it's still just giving plausible output. That's why it can't metrically scan its own lines or put a cæsura in the right place.
Re: GPT-5
#735It is frequently suggested that once one of the AI companies reaches an AGI threshold, they will take off ahead of the rest. It's interesting to note that at least so far, the trend has been the opposite: as time goes on and the models get better, the performance of the different company's gets clustered closer together. Right now GPT-5, Claude Opus, Grok 4, Gemini 2.5 Pro all seem quite good across the board (ie the…
Re: GPT-5
#736It is frequently suggested that once one of the AI companies reaches an AGI threshold, they will take off ahead of the rest. It's interesting to note that at least so far, the trend has been the opposite: as time goes on and the models get better, the performance of the different company's gets clustered closer together. Right now GPT-5, Claude Opus, Grok 4, Gemini 2.5 Pro all seem quite good across the board (ie the…
Is AGI even possible? I am skeptical of that. I think they can get really good at many tasks and when used by a human expert in a field you can save lots of time and supervise and change things here and there, like sculpting. But I doubt we will ever see a fully autonomous, reliable AGI system.
Re: GPT-5
#737It is frequently suggested that once one of the AI companies reaches an AGI threshold, they will take off ahead of the rest. It's interesting to note that at least so far, the trend has been the opposite: as time goes on and the models get better, the performance of the different company's gets clustered closer together. Right now GPT-5, Claude Opus, Grok 4, Gemini 2.5 Pro all seem quite good across the board (ie the…
This misunderstanding is nothing more than the classic "logistic curves look like exponential curves at the beginning". All (Transformee-based, feedforward) AI development efforts are plateauing rapidly.
AI engineers know this plateau is there, but of course every AI business has a vested interest in overpromising in order to access more funding from naive investors.
Re: GPT-5
#738Whenever OpenAI releases a new ChatGPT feature or model, it's always a crapshoot when you'll actually be able to use it. The headlines - both from tech media coverage and OpenAI itself - always read "now available", but then I go to ChatGPT (and I'm a paid pro user) and it's not available yet. As an engineer I understand rollouts, but maybe don't say it's generally available when it's not?
> You are using the newest model OpenAI offers to the public (GPT-4o). There is no “GPT-5” model accessible yet, despite the splashy headlines.
Re: GPT-5
#739ChatGPT5 in this demo: > For an airplane wing (airfoil), the top surface is curved and the bottom is flatter. When the wing moves forward: > * Air over the top has to travel farther in the same amount of time -> it moves faster -> pressure on the top decreases. > * Air underneath moves slower -> pressure underneath is higher > * The presure difference creates an upward force - lift Isn't that explanation of why wings…
Re: GPT-5
#740They will retire lots of models: GPT-4o, GPT-4.1, GPT-4.5, GPT-4.1-mini, o4-mini, o4-mini-high, o3, o3-pro. https://help.openai.com/en/articles/6825453-chatgpt-release-... "If you open a conversation that used one of these models, ChatGPT will automatically switch it to the closest GPT-5 equivalent." - 4o, 4.1, 4.5, 4.1-mini, o4-mini, or o4-mini-high => GPT-5 - o3 => GPT-5-Thinking - o3-Pro => GPT-5-Pro
Regular users just see incrementing numbers, why would they want to use 3 or 4 if there is a 5? This is how people who aren't entrenched in AI think.
Ask some of your friends what the difference is between models and some will have no clue that currently some of the 3 models are better than 4 models, or they'll not understand what the "o" means at all. And some think why would I ever use mini?