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The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

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Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#731

Post by pbhjpbhj »

andyferris wrote: post #696
bojan wrote: post #691

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"War with Russia" sounds like someone willingly started that war, and Russia was the target. Of course, nothing is further from the truth. "Russian invasion of Ukraine" is what should be written there.

Fully agreed, but I suspect that was written that way because the Fed was rather more worried about the fact Russia was at war and under western sanctions, than that Ukraine was busy defending itself. Perhaps "Russia's war" would have been a better phrasing that captures both spirits (but it's not a phrase you hear said much).

You think "Russia's war" captures more of the global relevance than "Russia's invasion of Ukraine"?

For example, Ukraine was a very important food supplier -- one of the top grain suppliers in the World -- and the invasion caused shortages of some foods. Another example is that Ukraine provided a good source of iron ore for EU-based manufacture. If nothing else that would be important to USAmericans as indicating a market opportunity.

Without that invasion and Putin's inspiration, would Trump have threatened invasion of USA's neighbours? That's got to be vital to USA finances too.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#732

Post by HDThoreaun »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #653
godelski wrote: post #588

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yet we're what? 5 years into "AI will replace programmers in 6 months"? 10 years into "we'll have self driving cars next year" We're 10 years into "it's just completely obvious that within 5 years deep learning is going to replace radiologists" Moravec's paradox strikes again and again. But this time it's different and it's completely obvious now, right?

I basically agree with you, and I think the thing that is missing from a bunch of responses that disagree is that it seems fairly apparent now that AI has largely hit a brick wall in terms of the benefits of scaling. That is, most folks were pretty astounded by the gains you could get from just stuffing more training data into these models, but like someone who argues a 15 year old will be 50 feet tall based on the l…

I dont see any wall. Gemini 2.5 and o3/o4 are incredible improvements. Gen AI is miles ahead of where it was a year ago which was miles ahead of where it was 2 years ago.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#733

Post by johnnyanmac »

HarHarVeryFunny wrote: post #729
tim333 wrote: post #647

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Four years into people mocking "we'll have self driving cars next year" while they are on the street daily driving around SF.

Yes, but ... The argument that self-driving cars should be allowed on public roads as long as they are statistically as safe as human drivers (on average) seems valid, but of course none of these cars have AGI... they perform well in the anticipated simulator conditions in which they were trained (as long as they have the necessary sensors, e.g. Waymo's lidar, to read the environment in reliable fashion), but will no…

In my lens, as long as companies don't want to be held liable for an accident, the shouldn't be on roads. They need to be extremely confident to the point of putting their money where their mouths are. That's true "safety".

That's the main difference with a human driver. If I take an Uber and we crash, that driver is liable. Waymo would fight tooth and nail to blame anything else.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#734

Post by HDThoreaun »

seanhunter wrote: post #625
tsunamifury wrote: post #594

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

I consulted a radiologist more than 5 years after Hinton said that it was completely obvious that radiologists would be replaced by AI in 5 years. I strongly suspect they were not an AI. Why do I think this? 1) They smelled slightly funny. 2) They got the diagnosis wrong. OK maybe #2 is a red herring. But I stand by the other reason.

I know a radiologist and talk a decent bit about AI usage in the field. Every radiologist today is making heavy use of AI. They pre screen everything and from what I understand it has led to massive productivity gains. It hasnt led to job losses yet but theres so much money on the line it really feels to me like we're just waiting for the straw that broke the camels back. No one wants to be the first to fully get rid of radiologists but once one hospital does the rest will quickly follow suit.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#735

Post by jona777than »

There will likely be more jobs because of AI. With more “knowledge”, comes more responsibility. Spam folders only exist because of automated emails. That classification process is more work. We may find there are more needs to meet as AI advances, not less.

The fallacy is in the statement “AI will replace jobs.” This shirks responsibility, which immediately diminishes credibility. If jobs are replaced or removed, that’s a choice we as humans have made, for better or worse.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#736

Post by jki275 »

e40 wrote: post #606
simonsarris wrote: post #465

I think the real white collar bloodbath is that the end of ZIRP was the end of infinite software job postings, and the start of layoffs. I think its easy to now point to AI, but it seems like a canard for the huge thing that already happened. just look at this: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JmOr In terms of magnitude the effect of this is just enormous and still being felt, and never recovered to pre-2020 lev…

Also section 174’s amortization of software development had a big role.

That's about to get repealed it looks like.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#737

Post by sham1 »

pydry wrote: post #724
bojan wrote: post #691

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"War with Russia" sounds like someone willingly started that war, and Russia was the target. Of course, nothing is further from the truth. "Russian invasion of Ukraine" is what should be written there.

Your demands of an absolute committment to maintaining the domestic establishment's war narrative while making a technical point have been noted. Slava Ukraini.

Truth is the best narrative, and it's better than – perhaps unconsciously – downplaying the culpability of the Russian Federation for the war.

Heroyam Slava.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#738

Post by mark_l_watson »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #653
godelski wrote: post #588

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yet we're what? 5 years into "AI will replace programmers in 6 months"? 10 years into "we'll have self driving cars next year" We're 10 years into "it's just completely obvious that within 5 years deep learning is going to replace radiologists" Moravec's paradox strikes again and again. But this time it's different and it's completely obvious now, right?

I basically agree with you, and I think the thing that is missing from a bunch of responses that disagree is that it seems fairly apparent now that AI has largely hit a brick wall in terms of the benefits of scaling. That is, most folks were pretty astounded by the gains you could get from just stuffing more training data into these models, but like someone who argues a 15 year old will be 50 feet tall based on the l…

I basically agree with you also, but I have a somewhat contrarian view of scaling -> brick wall. I feel like applications of powerful local models is stagnating, perhaps because Apple has not done a good job so far with Apple Intelligence.

A year ago I expected a golden age of local model intelligence integrated into most software tools, and more powerful commercial tools like Google Jules to be something used perhaps 2 or 3 times a week for specific difficult tasks.

That said, my view of the future is probably now wrong, I am just saying what I expected.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#739

Post by sotix »

tim333 wrote: post #703
trinix912 wrote: post #671

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The reality of most people is that they need to work to financially sustain themselves. Yes, there are people who just like what they do and work regardless, but I think we shouldn't discount the majority which would drop their jobs or at least work less hours had it not been out of the need for money.

Although in democracies we've largely selected that system. I've been to socialist places - Cuba and Albania before communism collapsed where a lot of people didn't do much but were still housed and fed (not very well - ration books) but no one seems to want to vote that stuff in.

How did you visit Albania before communism collapsed? I thought it was closed off from the world.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#740

Post by [deleted] »

SarahC_ wrote: post #619
jameslk wrote: post #512

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Keynes suggested that by 2030, we’d be working 15 hour workweeks, with the rest of the time used for leisure. Instead, we chose consumption, and helicopter money gave us bullshit jobs so we could keep buying more bullshit. This is fairly evident by the fact when the helicopter money runs out, all the bullshit jobs get cut. AI may give us more efficiency, but it will be filled with more bullshit jobs and consumption,…

"Bullshit jobs" are the rubbish required to keep the paperwork tidy, assessed and filed. No company pays someone to do -nothing-. AI isn't going to generate those jobs, it's going to automate them. ALL our bullshit jobs are going away, and those people will be unemployed.

[deleted]
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