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Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

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Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#731
post #268

Announce a controversial decision. See if it sticks. If not, claim it was a joke and you never meant that. Drama, manipulation, and a US government tactic, all in one.

Like chess[1], Trump had his finger on his head. Not official move until he removes his finger.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0cv9n0QbLUM

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#732

10% is still a lot. Counter tariffs will still happen.

10% only applies to countries that have not retaliated. I assume (dangerous in these times) that any retaliation will cause reinstatement of the previous rates.

Well if the countries don't take any action, doesn't it mean that they believe current situation is better than any other choice (and anyway, the tariffs will be paid by American buyers) and therefore the previous tariffs were too low?

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#733

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is pure manipulation. It was engineered to just that from the start. Since it's America, no investigation will be done to look into who profited here - possibly billions off regular people who had margin calls. 3rd world country.

> billions off regular people who had margin calls Thanks, Robinhood!

I like the ironic name. Robinhood is where the poor go to send their money to the rich.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#734
post #529
post #481

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Genuinely wondering why so many people are still giving the Trump administration this much benefit of the doubt that their moves are strategically sound? We're really still doing the whole "3D chess" thing with this guy after he has shown over and over again that he mostly just acts on impulse and the primary qualification for his advisors is loyalty over any type of intelligence or expertise?

A lot of this stuff is on a YouTube education level, not even a degree. I would be shocked if the US does not have a bunch of economic advisors who tell them what problems there are and what should be done. They've probably mapped out all the next steps. Most US presidents are Harvard-level smart, but the White House has been around long enough to find a way to deliver reports to the simpler ones. There's a lot of ob…

[deleted]

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#735

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That doesn't pass muster. If they had much interest in balancing the books, they wouldn't be ripping huge holes in revenue collection.

That's fair but I suggest that they are actually deficit hawks for the long term . In the short term, they've got financing troubles hence they care about the yield.

What if (and I realize this is an extremely pessimistic take) their plan is to just default on the debt and rely on military blackmail? Sure, there's a Constitutional prohibition on questioning the validity of USA debt, but the administration shrugs at the Constitution on a weekly basis. The endless whining about how 'unfairly' other nations are treating the US, 'ripping us off', 'laughing at us' etc is a precursor for aggressive action, and I think it's quite likely that at some point they'll come out and say 'we don't have to pay debts to countries that have been scamming us the whole time.' About one quarter of the population will support MAGA no matter what, and if things get bad enough the administration can just announce they've been 'forced' to take over Greenland and Canada.

A flashing negative warning sign of this would be issue of new kinds of Treasury securities with new complex rules.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#736

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>From the beginning, I’ve believed the executive branch's real goal was to push down the yield on the 10-year Treasury You're making it seem that there's a plan ... but what if this is just regular incompetence coupled with capricious behavior from a chaos agent? I'm watching various officials give interviews and all of them are non-committal as it pertains to expectations. Why? Because none of them actually know!!!…

I'd like to expand out why I hold this belief. The political cohort behind the president is roughly in two halves. The first half are the original MAGA crowd (looking out for the working class, pro-liberty, anti-woke, etc.). The second half are the billionaire crowd. The second group are active on pod casts, on Twitter/X, and are partly represented in government (directly or as advisors). An easy way to follow up on…

If the goal to drive the yield on T-notes down, then cut spending and raise taxes. Get the budget into something like balance and the Fed will cut rates, and borrowing costs will fall. You don't need some 3D chess with a manufactured financial crisis.

When your rational explanation involves people shooting themselves in the head to cure a headache, something's off. There's nothing to explain here besides a weak and incompetent leader with a deep need for attention, surrounded by lots of enablers.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#737

Is anyone sure this is not stock manipulation? Honest question.

"...I guess they say it was the biggest day in financial history,"

A finance whiz could tell you that it wasn't the biggest day in the market's history, but maybe a cause for extra celebration among a more select few.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#738

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>From the beginning, I’ve believed the executive branch's real goal was to push down the yield on the 10-year Treasury You're making it seem that there's a plan ... but what if this is just regular incompetence coupled with capricious behavior from a chaos agent? I'm watching various officials give interviews and all of them are non-committal as it pertains to expectations. Why? Because none of them actually know!!!…

I'd like to expand out why I hold this belief. The political cohort behind the president is roughly in two halves. The first half are the original MAGA crowd (looking out for the working class, pro-liberty, anti-woke, etc.). The second half are the billionaire crowd. The second group are active on pod casts, on Twitter/X, and are partly represented in government (directly or as advisors). An easy way to follow up on…

This belief seems to disregard the fact that the billionaire crowd hates markets being spooked far more than it cares about 10 year Treasury yields (which in any case went up precisely because markets were spooked; if you wanted to do something about reducing long term bond yields, committing to just about any other economic policy would be more credible). Even some of the most sycophantic billionaires were evidently furious about the tariff policy.

Also, Trump has been obsessed with the idea of tariffs since the 1980s.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#740

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That doesn't pass muster. If they had much interest in balancing the books, they wouldn't be ripping huge holes in revenue collection.

These "here's the actual reason they're doing this!" things rarely hold up under any amount of scrutiny. Then again, they're tempting because the things they're doing are also really bad ways to accomplish Trump's stated goals.

Humans struggle to find meaning where there is none to find.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareidolia

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