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Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

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Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#731

Post by mike_hearn »

pmags wrote: post #730
mike_hearn wrote: post #726

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With respect, argh! Lol. That link is neither analysis nor reporting on outcomes. That's more predictions. This is the exact problem I'm talking about! To analyze outcomes you must look at the actual data. There's a report that does so here but you can look up the raw data too if you prefer: https://iea.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Perspectives_5... From the summary: "Contrary to initial concerns, Brexit has not…

Also "with respect": ● The analysis you link to is exactly the same sort of analysis the OBR provides -- i.e. a synthesis of current and past data and updated projections of what that means looking ahead ● The OBR report links to detailed "Economic and fiscal outlook" (EFO) data that includes the actual data the conclusions are based on. I haven't tried to look at the linked data for many of the analyses in the OBR r…

I'm only citing the IEA report for the opening commentary on trade data. I know it has other stuff but that's not germane to the point.

That the IEA is right wing is neither here nor there, because the statements it makes are factual and true. If for some reason you suspect foul play you can just look up the data yourself instead of digging up irrelevant quotes (the Guardian is also very much in the Brexit influencing game, so what?)

I'll do the work for you. Here's a report from Parliament with the relevant data up to 2023. See the graph in section 3.1

https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-...

That's trade. For other economics indicators there are many sources. I like TradingEconomics.com

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#732

Post by pmags »

mike_hearn wrote: post #731
pmags wrote: post #730

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also "with respect": ● The analysis you link to is exactly the same sort of analysis the OBR provides -- i.e. a synthesis of current and past data and updated projections of what that means looking ahead ● The OBR report links to detailed "Economic and fiscal outlook" (EFO) data that includes the actual data the conclusions are based on. I haven't tried to look at the linked data for many of the analyses in the OBR r…

I'm only citing the IEA report for the opening commentary on trade data. I know it has other stuff but that's not germane to the point. That the IEA is right wing is neither here nor there, because the statements it makes are factual and true. If for some reason you suspect foul play you can just look up the data yourself instead of digging up irrelevant quotes (the Guardian is also very much in the Brexit influencin…

Thanks for linking to the parliamentary trade data! I think we both agree that's useful data on which to have a discussion.

Since you were so kind as to "do the work" for me, I'll also "do the work" for you (LOL!):

● From the text and tables in 3.1 (text from the report included below) I take it we both come to the same conclusion that post-Brexit the EU has lost ~£40 billion in export trade?

● To be clear how I'm getting that number -- NET LOSS in Exports for 2023 vs values cited for period 2017-2019: ~£20 billion to EU + ~£20 billion non EU

Is £40 billion a little or a lot? From the text below that seems to be about a 10% hit on exports.

How much is attributable to Brexit vs other factors (e.g. impact of COVID) really is the domain of forecasting and analysis, which you seem uncomfortable with. So perhaps we'll leave it there. EDIT: For readers who are interested in the performance of forecasting models, the OBR includes an analysis of the performance of their models here: https://obr.uk/box/how-are-our-brexit-trade-forecast-assumpt...

--

From the Parliamentary report "Statistics on UK trade with the EU":

> UK goods exports to the EU have not recovered to pre-Brexit levels. Goods exports to the EU exceeded £170 billion in 2017, 2018 and 2019 but have not done so in any calendar year since and were £153 billion in 2023 (see table below).

> It is worth noting that UK exports of goods to the EU were growing quite slowly before Brexit and the pandemic, being only 9% higher in 2019 than 2010 in real terms

> Goods exports to non-EU countries also remain below pre-Brexit levels. These exceeded £180 billion in 2017, 2018 and 2019 but have been below £170 billion in every calendar year since then. They were £162 billion in 2023.

--

EDITS: added some clarification re: source of export values; wording of text.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#733

Post by gdilla »

AlecSchueler wrote: post #678
gdilla wrote: post #644

Earlier quoted context omitted.

or they could've... taxed wealth. But the broligarchs who control trump wouldn't be ok with that.

But could they? Don't they all have unavoidable loopholes to avoid paying?

we're talking about law makers who can, you know, close loopholes.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#734

Post by mike_hearn »

pmags wrote: post #732
mike_hearn wrote: post #731

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm only citing the IEA report for the opening commentary on trade data. I know it has other stuff but that's not germane to the point. That the IEA is right wing is neither here nor there, because the statements it makes are factual and true. If for some reason you suspect foul play you can just look up the data yourself instead of digging up irrelevant quotes (the Guardian is also very much in the Brexit influencin…

Thanks for linking to the parliamentary trade data! I think we both agree that's useful data on which to have a discussion. Since you were so kind as to "do the work" for me, I'll also "do the work" for you (LOL!): ● From the text and tables in 3.1 (text from the report included below) I take it we both come to the same conclusion that post-Brexit the EU has lost ~£40 billion in export trade ? ● To be clear how I'm g…

We can tell there is no impact of Brexit because UK exports fell to both EU and non-EU countries by about the same amount, probably due to COVID impact. They would need to diverge for there to have been an impact of Brexit specifically. This doesn't require forecasting to see, you can look at the graph and see that there's been no divergence.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#735

Post by pmags »

pmags wrote: post #732
mike_hearn wrote: post #731

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm only citing the IEA report for the opening commentary on trade data. I know it has other stuff but that's not germane to the point. That the IEA is right wing is neither here nor there, because the statements it makes are factual and true. If for some reason you suspect foul play you can just look up the data yourself instead of digging up irrelevant quotes (the Guardian is also very much in the Brexit influencin…

Thanks for linking to the parliamentary trade data! I think we both agree that's useful data on which to have a discussion. Since you were so kind as to "do the work" for me, I'll also "do the work" for you (LOL!): ● From the text and tables in 3.1 (text from the report included below) I take it we both come to the same conclusion that post-Brexit the EU has lost ~£40 billion in export trade ? ● To be clear how I'm g…

We seem to have reached the maximum thread depth, which is probably a strong hint to us to end this discussion. We're way off topic anyhow as this thread is about the impact of current US tariffs.

But to your last comment, post-Brexit the UK is pretty significantly under-performing the rest of the G7 in terms of goods trades (prior to Brexit the UK seemed to mirror the G7 average).

https://obr.uk/box/how-are-our-brexit-trade-forecast-assumpt...

Interestingly, in terms of Services trade the UK seems to be slightly over-performing.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#736

Post by AlecSchueler »

gdilla wrote: post #733
AlecSchueler wrote: post #678

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But could they? Don't they all have unavoidable loopholes to avoid paying?

we're talking about law makers who can, you know, close loopholes.

My understanding is that the loopholes exist because international trade exists and therefore capital can be juggled through various different states to avoid the tax payments. That is, it's outside the legislative scope of any single set of law makers.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#737

Post by mike_hearn »

pmags wrote: post #735
pmags wrote: post #732

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for linking to the parliamentary trade data! I think we both agree that's useful data on which to have a discussion. Since you were so kind as to "do the work" for me, I'll also "do the work" for you (LOL!): ● From the text and tables in 3.1 (text from the report included below) I take it we both come to the same conclusion that post-Brexit the EU has lost ~£40 billion in export trade ? ● To be clear how I'm g…

We seem to have reached the maximum thread depth, which is probably a strong hint to us to end this discussion. We're way off topic anyhow as this thread is about the impact of current US tariffs. But to your last comment, post-Brexit the UK is pretty significantly under-performing the rest of the G7 in terms of goods trades (prior to Brexit the UK seemed to mirror the G7 average). https://obr.uk/box/how-are-our-brex…

Sure. I think we both agree at least that the UK isn't suffering some kind of crisis, doesn't have plunging GDP etc, which is where this sub-thread started.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#738

Post by agubelu »

JeremyNT wrote: post #359
lenerdenator wrote: post #4

I was looking at used cars on Carmax about two or three weeks ago. I looked again today. They're another $1-2k. This is the shareholder/political class trying to eat their cake and have it too. Pay people a stagnant wage for 40 years while taking most of the surplus value and dedicating it to equities, then pretend to do something about it, but in a way that passes the buck to the people who have been making a stagna…

It amazes me the contortions some people go through to maintain the belief that this administration is competent. Occam's razor suggests that they just have no idea what they're doing.

Many people share the worldview that those who are higher up in the hierarchy of power are the most capable or deserving of such positions.

So when those leaders start acting in a way that is irrational or clearly damaging, there's a pretty strong cognitive dissonance. There are two ways to deal with it:

- Assume that, since they're the higher-ups, they must know what they're doing. Therefore there must be some sort of plan that you're not able or supposed to understand.

- Reassess the notion that the higher-ups are always the most capable or deserving people, and assume there's a chance for inept people to access positions of power.

The first one is the path of least resistance, since it doesn't require challenging a fundamental pillar of your worldview.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#739

Post by tasuki »

renata wrote: post #664
tasuki wrote: post #640

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why was it not sustainable? Clearly the houses were there, and the non-working spouses, and the car and the children...

Well, we can't count on the entire rest of the world having all their factories bombed and being the only nation with reasonable manufacturing capability all the time .

In what way would the citizens of the US have been worse off had the rest of the world had reasonable manufacturing capability? I'd have thought that either it'd be the same, or better, because same production + trade.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#740

Post by tasuki »

joquarky wrote: post #650
tasuki wrote: post #588

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Mark Zuckerberg, Elon Musk, and Larry Ellison each have a net worth that is on par with the total gross economic output of a small American metropolitan area. You're comparing apples to oranges. Net worth is in dollars, while economic output is dollars per unit of time. The comparison does not make sense. You didn't even say which unit of time! Hell, I have a higher net worth than the total economic output of the U…

This level of pedantry won't play in reality against someone who just lost everything and is seeking revenge on the tech bros who they perceive as enabling all of this.

I hope lenerdenator didn't just lose everything and isn't seeking revenge on the tech bros - more likely he's a tech bro!

It's not pedantry though. It really makes no sense to compare earnings per unit of time to accumulated wealth. They are entirely different things.

Compare the wealth of Elon vs wealth of average person on the Earth, or average US citizen. Those are also mind-boggling numbers and it makes sense to compare them.

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