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I genuinely don't understand why some people are still bullish about LLMs

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Re: I genuinely don't understand why some people are still bullish about LLMs

#731
It’s not about what they can do, it’s about what people think they can do and try to use them for, which is, on average, incredibly wrong.

They are impressive for what they are… but do you know what they are? I do, and that’s why I’m not that hyped about them.

Re: I genuinely don't understand why some people are still bullish about LLMs

#732

If there's one common thread across LLM criticisms, it's that they're not perfect. These critics don't seem to have learned the lesson that the perfect is the enemy of the good . I use ChatGPT all the time for academic research. Does it fabricate references? Absolutely, maybe about a third of the time. But has it pointed me to important research papers I might never have found otherwise? Absolutely . The rate of inac…

> Does it fabricate references? Absolutely, maybe about a third of the time And you don't have concerns about that? What kind of damage is that doing to our society, long term, if we have a system that _everyone_ uses and it's just accepted that a third of the time it is just making shit up?

So, I've sometimes wondered about this.

Could it end up being a net benefit? will the realistic sounding but incorrect facts generated by A.I. make people engage with arguments more critically, and be less likely to believe random statements they're given?

Now, I don't know, or even think it is likely that this will happen, but I find it an interesting thought experiment.

Re: I genuinely don't understand why some people are still bullish about LLMs

#733

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, it won't do your taxes for you, but it can sure help you do them yourself. Probably won't put you out of your job either, but it might help you accomplish more. Of course, one result of people accomplishing more in less time is that you need fewer people to do the same amount of work - so some jobs could be lost. But it's also possible that for the most part instead, more will be accomplished overall.

If it had access to my books, a current-gen frontier LLM most certainly could do my taxes. I don't understand that entire line of reasoning.

I'm on a financial forum where people often ask tax questions, generally _fairly_ simple questions. An obnoxious recent trend on many forums, including this one, is idiots feeding questions into a magic robot and posting what it says as a response. Now, ChatGPT may be very good at, er, something, I dunno, I am assured that it has _some_ use by the evangelists, but it is not good at tax, and if people follow many of the answers it gives then they are likely to get in trouble.

Re: I genuinely don't understand why some people are still bullish about LLMs

#735
I genuinely don’t understand why everyone is so hyper polarized on LLMs. I find them to be fantastically useful tools in certain situations, and definitely one of the most impressive technological developments in decades. It isn’t some silver-bullet, solve all issues solution. It can be wrong and you can’t simply take things it outputs for granted. But that does not make it anywhere near useless or any less impressive. This is especially true considering how truly young the technology is. It literally didn’t exist 10 years ago, and the iteration that thrust them into the public is less than 3 years old and has already advanced remarkably. I find the idea that they are useless snake-oil to be just as deluded of a take as the people claiming we have solved AGI.

Re: I genuinely don't understand why some people are still bullish about LLMs

#736

I get so confused on this. I play around, test, and mess with LLMs all the time and they are miraculous. Just amazing, doing things we dreamed about for decades. I mean, I can ask for obscure things with subtle nuance where I misspell words and mess up my question and it figures it out. It talks to me like a person. It generates really cool images. It helps me write code. And just tons of other stuff that astounds me…

You're being disingenuous. The tweet was talking about asserting the existence of fake articles, claiming that a paper was written in one year while summarizing a paper that explicitly says it was written in another, and severe hallucinations. Nowhere does she even imply that she's looking for superintelligence.

Re: I genuinely don't understand why some people are still bullish about LLMs

#737
post #669

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A municipality in Norway used LLM to create a report about the school structure in the municipality (how many schools are there, how many should there be, where should they be, how big should they be, pros and cons of different size schools and classes etc etc). Turns out the LLM invented scientific papers to use as references and the whole report is complete and utter garbage based on hallucinations.

And that says… what? The entire LLM technology is worthless for all applications, from all implementations? A company I worked for spent millions on a customer service solution that never worked. I wouldn’t say that contracted software is useless.

I agree. I use LLMs heavily for gruntwork development tasks (porting shell scripts to Ansible is an example of something I just applied them to). For these purposes, it works well. LLMs excel in situations where you need repetitive, simple adjustments on a large scale. IE: swap every postgres insert query, with the corresponding mysql insert query.

A lot of the "LLMs are worthless" talk I see tends to follow this pattern:

1. Someone gets an idea, like feeding papers into an LLM, and asks it to do something beyond its scope and proper use-case.

2. The LLM, predictably, fails.

3. Users declare not that they misused the tool, but that the tool itself is fundamentally corrupted.

It in my mind is no different to the steam roller being invented, and people remaking how well it flattens asphalt. Then a vocal group trying to use this flattening device to iron clothing in bulk, and declaring steamrollers useless when it fails at this task.

Re: I genuinely don't understand why some people are still bullish about LLMs

#738

I get so confused on this. I play around, test, and mess with LLMs all the time and they are miraculous. Just amazing, doing things we dreamed about for decades. I mean, I can ask for obscure things with subtle nuance where I misspell words and mess up my question and it figures it out. It talks to me like a person. It generates really cool images. It helps me write code. And just tons of other stuff that astounds me…

The thing LLMs are really really good at, is sounding authoritative.

If you ask it random things the output looks amazing, yes. At least at first glance. That's what they do. It's indeed magical, a true marvel that should make you go: Woooow, this is amazing tech: Coming across as convincing, even if based on hallucinations, is in itself a neat trick!

But is it actually useful? The things they come up with are untrustworthy and on the whole far less good than previously available systems. In many ways, insidiously worse: It's much harder to identify bad information than it was before.

It's almost like we designed a system to pass turing tests with flying colours but forgetting that usefulness is what we actually wanted, not authoritative, human sounding bullshit.

I don't think the LLM naysayers are 'unimpressed', or that they demand perfection. I think they are trying to make statements aimed at balancing things:

Both the LLMs themselves, and the humans parroting the hype, are severely overstating the quality of what such systems produce. Hence, and this is a natural phenomenon you can observe in all walks of life, the more skeptical folks tend to swing the pendulum the other way, and thus it may come across to you as them being overly skeptical instead.

Re: I genuinely don't understand why some people are still bullish about LLMs

#739

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's mostly because of how they were initially marketed. In an effort to drive hype 'we' were promised the world. Remember the "leaks" from Google about an engineer trying to get the word out that they had created a sentient intelligence? In reality Bard, let alone whatever early version he was using, is about as sentient as my left asscheek. OpenAI did similar things by focusing to the point of absurdity on 'safety'…

> Remember the "leaks" from Google about an engineer trying to get the word out that they had created a sentient intelligence? I presume you are referring to this Google engineer, who was sacked for making the claim. Hardly an example of AI companies overhyping the tech; precisely the opposite, in fact. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-62275326 It seems to be a common human hallucination to imagine that large or…

Corporations are motivated by profit, not doing what's best for humanity. If you need an example of "large organizations conspiring against us," I can give you twenty.

Re: I genuinely don't understand why some people are still bullish about LLMs

#740
To each is own. I give o3 with deep research my notes and ask it for a high-level design document, then feed that to claude and get a skeleton of a multi-service system, then build out functionality in each service with subsequent claude requests.

Sure, it does middle-of-the-road stuff, but it comments the code well, I can manually tweak things at the various levels of granularity to guide it along, and the design doc is on par something a senior principal would produce.

I do in a week what a team of four would take a month and a half to do. It's insane.

Sure, don't be bullish. I'm frantically piecing together enough hardware to run a decent sized LLM at home.

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