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Grok3 Launch [video]

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Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#731

Post by doctorpangloss »

BluSyn wrote: post #697
gmerc wrote: post #668

[flagged]

You seem to be assuming that the full cost of the cluster is recouped by Grok 3. The real value will be in grok 5, 6, etc… xAI also announced a few days ago they are starting an internal video game studio. How long before AI companies take over Hollywood and Disney? The value available to be captured is massive. The cluster they’ve built is impressive compared to the competition, and grok 3 barely scratches what it’s…

> xAI also announced a few days ago they are starting an internal video game studio.

Ha ha. I'm sure their play to claim airdrop idle game will be groundbreaking.

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#732

Post by nilkn »

gmerc wrote: post #668

[flagged]

xAI is not trying to make an immediate profit -- ironically, just like DeepSeek. They will undoubtedly use more efficient training processes in future runs and they will scale that across their massive GPU cluster. Just because they didn't cancel the training of Grok 3 and start over absolutely does not mean they will not incorporate all the work from R1 and more in the next run.

What you're seeing right now is pure flex and a signal for the future and competition. A much maligned AI team that hasn't even been around for very long at all just matched or topped the competition without making use of the latest training techniques yet. The message this is intended to send is that xAI is a serious player in the space.

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#733

Post by menaerus »

roblabla wrote: post #465
menaerus wrote: post #458

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You'd still need a fairly large amount of compute power to be able to run DeepSeek R1 locally, no?

Well yes, but not so large that it's completely prohibitive. People have been running the full models on computers going as low as $6000: https://x.com/carrigmat/status/1884244369907278106 Of course this is for a personal instance, you'd need a much more expensive setup to handle concurrent users. And that's to run it, not train it.

6k is not that bad considering that top of the line Apple laptop costs as much. However, I don't have X so unfortunately I can't read the details.

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#734

Post by nicce »

belter wrote: post #700
gmerc wrote: post #668

[flagged]

> There is no monetisation potential. DOGE uses only X links, and I am sure Grok will be the next gov contract. After all he has all the data on everybody down to your IRS tax returns.

How this is even legal. Don’t they have any sort of competitive tendering?

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#735

Post by consumer451 »

gmerc wrote: post #668

[flagged]

> For what? There is no ROI at that price point. There is no monetization potential.

It appears that LLM chat interfaces will replace Google SERPs as the arbiters of truth. Getting people to use your LLM allows you to push your world view. Pushing his "unique" world view appears to be the most important thing to modern Musk.

In that light, paying 40B for Twitter, and billions for Grok training makes perfect sense.

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#736

Post by kmac_ »

BluSyn wrote: post #697
gmerc wrote: post #668

[flagged]

You seem to be assuming that the full cost of the cluster is recouped by Grok 3. The real value will be in grok 5, 6, etc… xAI also announced a few days ago they are starting an internal video game studio. How long before AI companies take over Hollywood and Disney? The value available to be captured is massive. The cluster they’ve built is impressive compared to the competition, and grok 3 barely scratches what it’s…

The point is that it is inefficient. Others achieved similar results much cheaper, meaning they can go much further. Compute is important, but model architecture and compute methods still outweigh it.

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#737

Post by HarHarVeryFunny »

Tycho wrote: post #708
BluSyn wrote: post #697

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seem to be assuming that the full cost of the cluster is recouped by Grok 3. The real value will be in grok 5, 6, etc… xAI also announced a few days ago they are starting an internal video game studio. How long before AI companies take over Hollywood and Disney? The value available to be captured is massive. The cluster they’ve built is impressive compared to the competition, and grok 3 barely scratches what it’s…

Yes. Why do get these replies on HN that seem to only consider the most shallow, surface details? It could well be that xAI wins the AI race by betting on hardware first and foremost - new ideas are quickly copied by everyone, but a compute edge is hard to match.

The compute edge belongs to those like Google (TPU) and Amazon/Anthropic (Trainium) building their own accelerators and not paying NVIDIAs 1000% cost markups. Microsoft just announced experimenting with Cerebras wafer scale chips for LLM inference which are also a cost savings.

Microsoft is in process of building optical links between existing datacenters to create meta-clusters, and I'd expect that others like Amazon and Meta may be doing the same.

Of course for Musk this is an irrational ego-driven pursuit, so he can throw as much money at it as he has available, but trying to sell AI when you're paying 10x the competition for FLOPs seems problematic, even you you are capable of building a competitive product.

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#738

Post by sejje »

Refusing23 wrote: post #384
rendang wrote: post #10

Grok has gotten to the top of one benchmark: https://x.com/lmarena_ai/status/1891706264800936307 It's been said before but it is great news for consumers that there's so much competition in the LLM space. If it's hard for any one player to get daylight between them & the 2nd best alternative, hopefully that means one monopolistic firm isn't going to be sucking up all the value created by these things

benchmarks dont show the quality or 'correctness' of the response though.

What do they show?

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#739

Post by [deleted] »

soheil wrote: post #724
ijustlovemath wrote: post #573

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's remarkable to me about criticism like this is how quickly it's rebutted by people claiming "where did they say they would do this," as if these people don't make incredibly rushed and poorly planned decisions all the time. It's like an idea immune system that rejects any criticism or self reflection. It would be sociologically fascinating if it wasn't being combined with a dereliction of congressional power an…

You do realize you and your OP are currently top comments in your respective threads both criticizing Elon and even preemptively criticize your imaginary criticizers

[deleted]

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#740

Post by cpursley »

Tycho wrote: post #720
InTheArena wrote: post #590

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Elon's unchecked power at building a model? Or at politics? I always worry whenever I see people telling me how to feel - rage in this case. We are in a political system that is oriented more around getting people to feel rage and hatred as opposed to consensus and deliberation. Elon is the face of that, but it's a much longer and larger problem. Throw in the complete dismisal that anyone not scared of this is ignora…

But it is a partisan issue. All these people on fat NGO salaries, all these federal workers not pulling their weight, all the welfare abuse, all these aid payments - which party do you think is keen to keep the spigot flowing? Of course, it would be a shame if they didn’t audit the Pentagon as well, definitely massive graft happening there.

It’s just wild to me that an attempt to tally up whats in the community grain store and where it’s allocated out to is even considered a bipartisan issue.
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