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GPT-5 is behind schedule

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Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#731

Post by greentxt »

atonse wrote: post #457
SamPatt wrote: post #415

I'm sure the debate over the definition of AGI is important and will continue for a while, but... I can't care about it anymore. Between Perplexity searching and summarizing, Claude explaining, and qwen (and other tools) coding, I'm already as happy as can be with whatever you want to call this level of intelligence. Just today I used a completely local AI research tool, based on Ollama. It worked great. Maybe it won…

Same here. The ability to “talk to an expert” about any topic I’m curious about and ask very specific questions has been invaluable to me. It reminds me of being a kid and asking my grandpa a million questions, like how light bulbs worked, or what was inside his radio, or how do we have day and night. And before anyone talks about accuracy or hallucinations, these conversations usually are treated as starting off poi…

Libraries and books were pretty cool too though. You could go to a library and find information on anything and a librarian would help you. Not super efficient but good for humans.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#732

Post by solardev »

LASR wrote: post #610

So the team I lead does a lot of research around all the “plumbing” around LLMs. Both technical and from a product-market perspectives. What I’ve learned is that for the most part that AI revolution is not going to be because of PHD-level LLMs. It will be because people are better equipped to use the high-schooler level LLMs to do their work more efficiently. We have some knowledge graph experiments where LLMs contin…

> a revolution in knowledge-worker productivity.

That's a nice euphemism for "imminent mass layoffs and a race to the bottom"...

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#733

Post by pino82 »

pera wrote: post #650
netdevphoenix wrote: post #640

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The ability to “talk to an expert” about any topic I’m curious about and ask very specific questions has been invaluable to me. It is dangerous to assume that LLMs are experts on any topic. With or without quotes. You are getting a super fast journalist intern with a huge memory but inability to reason critically, lacking understanding about anything and huge unreliability when it comes to answering questions (you…

It's scary to think that we are moving into this direction: I can see how in the next few years politicians and judges will use LLMs as neutral experts. And all in the hand of a few big tech corporations...

The world was such a boring and dark place before everybody was constantly swiping on his smartphone in any situation, and before everysaid said basically got piped through a bigtech data center, where their algorithms control its way.

Now we finally have a tool where all of you can prove every day how strong/smart/funny/foo you are (not actually). How was life even possible without?

So, don't be so pessimistic. ;)

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#734

Post by SkyBelow »

missedthecue wrote: post #271
dkobia wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AGI is the Sisyphean task of our age. We’ll push this boulder up the mountain because we have to, even if it kills us.

Do we know LLMs are the path to AGI? If they're not, we'll just end up with some neat but eye wateringly expensive LLMs.

Will AGI be built on top of LLMs? Well beyond the simple "nobody knows", my intuition says no because LLMs don't have great ability to modify their knowledge real time. I can think of a few ways around this, but they all avoid modifying the model as it runs. The cost in hardware, power, and data are all incompatible with AGI. The first two can be solved with more advanced tech (well maybe, computation hitting physical limits and all that aside), but the latter seems an issue with the design itself and I think an AGI would learn more akin to a human, needing far fewer examples.

That said, I think LLMs are a definite stepping stone and they will better empower humans to be more productive, which will be of use for eventually reaching AGI. This is not to say we are optimizing our use of that productivity increase and this is also ignoring any chance of worst case scenarios that stop humanity's advancement.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#735

Post by pino82 »

cbau wrote: post #718
swiftcoder wrote: post #627

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> they Google the information from the LLM and do more reading The runway on this one seems to be running out fast - how long before all the google results are also non-expert opinions regurgitated by LLMs?

You can turn to actual experts, e.g. YouTube or books. But yes, I have recently had the misfortune of working with a personal trainer who was using ChatGPT to come up with training programs, and it felt confusing and like I was wasting time and money.

When I'm looking for actual experts, the first thing that comes to my mind is definitely YouTube!!

And least when it's about YouTube specific topics, like where the like button and the subscribe button is.

They will tell me. Every. Single. F*cking. 5. Minute. Clip. Again. And. Again.

Not soooo much for anything actually important or interesting, though.... ;)

PS: Also which of the always same ~5 shady companies their sponsor is, of course.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#736

Post by MKoberger »

At what point does the pursuit of marginal improvements in AI capabilities outweigh the financial and ethical considerations involved in such projects? Any ideas how to balance innovation and cost?

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#737

Post by svieira »

SamPatt wrote: post #726
pera wrote: post #650

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's scary to think that we are moving into this direction: I can see how in the next few years politicians and judges will use LLMs as neutral experts. And all in the hand of a few big tech corporations...

They aren't just in the hands of big corporations though. The open source, local LLM community is absolutely buzzing right now. Yes, the big companies are making the models, but enough of them are open weights that they can be fine tuned and run however you like. I think LLMs genuinely do present an opportunity to be neutral experts, or at the least neutral third parties. If they're run in completely transparent ways…

The whole problem is that they are not neutral. They token-complete based on the corpus that was fed into them and the dimensions that were extracted out of those corpuses and the curve-fitting done to those dimensions. Being "completely transparent" means exposing _all_ of that, but that's too large for anyone to reasonably understand without becoming an expert in that particular model.

And then we're right back to "trusting expert human beings" again.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#738

Post by atoav »

solardev wrote: post #732
LASR wrote: post #610

So the team I lead does a lot of research around all the “plumbing” around LLMs. Both technical and from a product-market perspectives. What I’ve learned is that for the most part that AI revolution is not going to be because of PHD-level LLMs. It will be because people are better equipped to use the high-schooler level LLMs to do their work more efficiently. We have some knowledge graph experiments where LLMs contin…

> a revolution in knowledge-worker productivity. That's a nice euphemism for "imminent mass layoffs and a race to the bottom"...

These productivity gains won't be shared with the employees. I think some people underestimate what a violent populus can do to them if they squeeze out even more Yacht money from the people.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#739

Post by kranke155 »

solardev wrote: post #732
LASR wrote: post #610

So the team I lead does a lot of research around all the “plumbing” around LLMs. Both technical and from a product-market perspectives. What I’ve learned is that for the most part that AI revolution is not going to be because of PHD-level LLMs. It will be because people are better equipped to use the high-schooler level LLMs to do their work more efficiently. We have some knowledge graph experiments where LLMs contin…

> a revolution in knowledge-worker productivity. That's a nice euphemism for "imminent mass layoffs and a race to the bottom"...

The technology is not dystopian but our economic system makes it so.

Up to you to figure out which will hold.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#740

Post by dns_snek »

SamPatt wrote: post #726
pera wrote: post #650

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's scary to think that we are moving into this direction: I can see how in the next few years politicians and judges will use LLMs as neutral experts. And all in the hand of a few big tech corporations...

They aren't just in the hands of big corporations though. The open source, local LLM community is absolutely buzzing right now. Yes, the big companies are making the models, but enough of them are open weights that they can be fine tuned and run however you like. I think LLMs genuinely do present an opportunity to be neutral experts, or at the least neutral third parties. If they're run in completely transparent ways…

> Yes, the big companies are making the models, but enough of them are open weights that they can be fine tuned and run however you like.

And how long is that going to last? This is a well known playbook at this point, we'd be better off if we didn't fall for it yet again - it's comical at this point. Sooner or later they'll lock the ecosystem down, take all the free stuff away and demand to extract the market value out of the work they used to "graciously" provide for free to build an audience and market share.

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