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I wish GPT4 had never happened

chaudhry.notion.site

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Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#731

Post by sethammons »

namarie wrote: post #661
sethammons wrote: post #579

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ya know, I have helped neighbors with those exact problems. For free. It was nice to be helpful. I would not however do it for fun every day for strangers.

No one is arguing for you to either stop helping your neighbors for free nor to do it every day for strangers, so I really don't see the point in this.

GGP: people find meaning in work

GP: yeah? find meaning in my shitty chores

P (me): I've found meaning in helping others with shitty chores

You: I don't see the connection, nobody says don't help others

Huh? I'm not sure where you are coming from.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#732

Post by s__s »

HealthNeed wrote: post #633
ericbarrett wrote: post #617

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI is a ratchet. It doesn't die, or retire, or change careers. Once it's good at something, it stays good. Once it gets better at something, it stays better. (If not, the model is disposed of without pity or remorse.) Right now, it may make you better at your job. But your very use of it is training it to do your job. It seems to me that if AI is currently helpful to you, it is likely to eventually replace you. And m…

What does "take it seriously" mean? For me, taking it seriously means that I am trying to use it as multiplier to be better at my own job. Is there some better course of action you think we should be taking? I personally do not think it is going anywhere, so I figure I had better be the expert.

“Take it seriously” to me means that I’m using AI to be more productive while simultaneously preparing for a future where I can house and feed my family without relying on being employed as a knowledge worker. What exactly that looks like, I’m still not certain.

> so I figure I had better be the expert

Be an expert at what? Prompting AI to do things? There will be little to no expertise needed in the future as these tools evolve. That’s precisely what makes AI so disruptive. A basic set of instructions can be used to create something that previously would have took an entire team of skilled specialists to produce.

Sure, there will always be some experts, but these jobs will be few and far between, and they’ll be much more academic in nature. Having a job like this will be a luxury only a tiny percentage of the earths population will enjoy.

The only real question at this point is how fast will AI move to automate all of these jobs away. It could be 5 years it could be 20.

The jobs left in the wake of AI won’t require much education, skill, or talent, meaning they’ll be extremely low paying because almost anyone will be able to do them.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#733

Post by ilyt »

hnfong wrote: post #379
danShumway wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Work" above is being used in a more specific form than you are using it. GP is not referring to all productive work, they are specifically referring to employment on the market. Yes, human beings are better in relationships and better when they help each other, but GP is not talking about abolishing helping other people or doing meaningful things. There are a huge number of things people can do to meaningfully make…

I generally agree with you in principle, but it’s not a given that you can find meaning outside of the job market if the market doesn’t find your labor valuable. What if nobody actually wants your “help”? What if your labor is not only worthless in the job market, but also in general, where people prefer assistance from AI instead of from a live human person? What if no matter what you do, some AI does it better? How…

That would really only be a problem if majority decided to not do anything and we had actual shortage, not just "corporations don't want to pay decent wage so they can't find people"

If the incentive is "here is basic income, you can afford flat on outskirts of the town or in some small town and basic necessities", there is still plenty motivation to do better and get better stuff (whether just for living, or for your hoobbies or interest), just not a pressure of taking first job you can find just to afford being alive.

So average person have option of just going on 6 month hiatus to learn some life skill, or artist have time to develop their skill enough to make art or music that gets enough interest to make it into income.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#734

Post by ilyt »

listenallyall wrote: post #190
onion2k wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most people find meaning, fulfillment, even contentment in working, especially when the problems are engaging and the solutions produce value. You can do that without it being a job. I enjoy making things out of epoxy resin. It's fun, creative, hard work. I'd do it a lot more if we had universal basic income. It's not my job.

> You can do that without it being a job Yes, you can , but his argument is that most people don't -- and he's right.

What if the reason is that when they come back from 8h job that also took 2h to even get there (coz they are not rich so they live far from it) they just don't have energy to ?

I swear, it's like nobody here actually worked hard for any extended period in their life..

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#735

Post by ilaksh »

dns_snek wrote: post #715
hunter-gatherer wrote: post #637

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that is where the scare comes from though. It used to be that churning out good code really did take a lot of experience. But as we lower that bar, the value a computer programmer has may begin to diminish. If everyone can spit out 200 lines of code in a day, thrn hiw valuable are you, really? I analyze malware for a living, and don't consider myself a strong developer, though I can write programs, obviously.…

> But as we lower that bar, the value a computer programmer has may begin to diminish. As a developer, I feel like it's the opposite. If anything, it's going to raise the bar by replacing low skilled coders who are only good at cheaply producing piles of future tech debt, GPT4 will do that sort of work for 'free'. On the other hand it's going to empower non-programmers to write or debug low complexity scripts on thei…

Do some more testing. Try putting it in a debug loop. Imagine tooling that has access to the files and a longer context window. If this is truly your judgement then GPT4 already has better reasoning capabilities than you. Imagine improved versions every 3-6 months.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#736

Post by s__s »

_fat_santa wrote: post #491
surgical_fire wrote: post #156

Funny thing - I've been using ChatGPT as a programming assistant. My experience with it is that the more knowledgeable I am at the domain, the more useful it is. It often generates code that won't compile or won't run correctly, but that sort of goes in the correct direction, enough that I can spot the blunders and refine my questions. Quite often I even learn a few new things when using it to explore libraries and f…

By this logic, Priya (the subject of the authors post) would not loose her job but rather just become more productive at her job. And I think that's the key to this whole "GPT4 is taking our jobs argument" that people need to understand, GPT is a bit like Autopilot in a Tesla, it can do the work for you but you still need a trained person there to guide it. Folks like Priya will not loose their jobs IMO, the company…

Today you need a trained person to guide it. However I’m not convinced that will remain true in the future.

The validation of work is interesting. It does seem essential but it also occurs to me that this would be an absolutely horrible and tedious job. I wonder who would actually be interested in, for example, spending 8 hours a day code reviewing a an AI’s output?

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#737

Post by ilyt »

proamdev123 wrote: post #141
netbioserror wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What a profoundly naive opinion. Most people find meaning, fulfillment, even contentment in working, especially when the problems are engaging and the solutions produce value. Many people claim their lives would be better if they never had to work, but they are bullshitting themselves with childhood naivete. Not working is a sucking void of boredom, nihilism, hedonism, and despair. I've been through some of that befo…

I agree completely. Additionally, people who hold this belief fail to realize that “I don’t want to work.” ACTUALLY means “I want others to work so I don’t have to.” For example, how are you going to eat? You are either going to grow, cultivate, and harvest your own food (i.e. work) or you’re expecting others to do that work for you. Oh, you say it can be “automated”? Well, who’s going to design, build, and maintain…

> Oh, you say it can be “automated”? Well, who’s going to design, build, and maintain the automating machine? That’s all work too!

Which requires 10x, or 100x less people. And the "savings" go mostly to company owners, not to making product cheaper.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#738

Post by dredds »

tchvil wrote: post #676
spaceman_2020 wrote: post #616

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Personally as a noob programmer, I feel like a superhuman because of GPT-4. Feel like my creativity has been unleashed and I can compete with the big boys.

I feel the same after programming for about 25+ years. Now I get an idea, ask GPT how to do it, or if there are other options, choose and adapt to my use case. [edit] after reading the article... Why Priya couldn't use GPT and do the job much faster?

When the colleague said s/he could do it 10x faster it was with the current GPT4 prompt limits which wouldn't exist for a "partner" company. From the last sentence we can infer that the job is outsourced, so someone "in the US" could spin up many more bots to do the task 1000s or more times faster, thus obsoleting the need to outsource the entire task at all across the whole industry, perhaps offering it instead a cheap bulk service.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#739

Post by zamnos »

kypro wrote: post #714
Aaargh20318 wrote: post #29

The big oversight here is that Priya does not want a job , what Priya wants is an income . The point of life is not working, the point of life is to enjoy it. We should strive to eliminate as many jobs as we possibly can, the less we have to work the better it is. To make this possible we need to find a way to a new system that doesn't directly link labour with income .

Good luck trying to tax AGI companies 95% of profits. Perhaps you could strike but you'll be unemployed. I guess we'll just have to cross our fingers that Sam Altman and friends will pity us enough to give us some pocket money to survive. That's assuming the AGI created is aligned with our values. I mean, we can keep hoping that AGI will be a good thing with zero evidence or we can take action to slow progress now so…

In the history of political movements, have there been any that have been successful with slowing progress? The Luddites failed to. stop the industrial revolution, despite all the looms they broke. The cat's been released from BagGPT, and even if all the world's countries ban AGI research (somehow), that's just going to drive the work underground, and the first ones to get usefully further along the curve will be able to outcompete any who haven't.

It's a real life prisoners dilemma, with 8 billion prisoners, and the first one to defect get to decide what the fate of the rest of humanity looks like.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#740

Post by ilyt »

tap-snap-or-nap wrote: post #116
danielrpa wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Jobs often make people feel useful. While many can be the happy unemployed person playing Counterstrike 24/7, many others need some sort of occupation for self-realization. This is actually a common problem, which can even became a major psychological issue, with people entering retirement. Maybe one day we can live in a world where machines are doing all the work and there are fulfilling hobbies for everybody, but I…

Anyone who has been unemployed may know how badly it affects a persons self-worth.

It would probably be much less impact if you knew you won't get kicked out of your apartment in few months coz you run out of money to pay rent.

Like, sure, "nobody wants to have me working" isn't great, but going to job that barely covers your rent isn't much better.

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