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The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

cnbc.com

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Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#731

Post by valuearb »

varjag wrote: post #651
valuearb wrote: post #608

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And auto makers are estimating they won’t be able to ship 1M cars this quarter because of chip shortages, but that’s less than 4% of demand. That’s no crisis. Let’s face it, automakers not only made their own bed here, but as soon as they canceled their orders PC makers swooped in and claimed the released production because PC sales were through the roof. Next year Pc sales aren’t likely to continue at this pace. We…

Nope, 4% of global demand not met is very much a crisis.

How?

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#732

Post by dillondoyle »

kevin_thibedeau wrote: post #728
dillondoyle wrote: post #715

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i havent seen that one been focused on toyota. It sounds reliable? That's the old size I love! For you what would be the max miles you'd buy a Ranger? A tacoma?

I have a 2004 that has done 210K in rust country. They can last to 300K. I would shoot for anything less than 80K. Many retirees buy them and leave them garaged with little miles put on. the 4 liter engine was made in Germany and comes with upgrades to the transmission internals. The truck is half Mazda and benefits from that relationship (unlike on the car side).

thanks for the info! Buying cars is hard. I know nothing about cars and haven't owned one in 10 years so trying to learn. Getting one so i can get out climbing outside more (mountains) so that's why I was leaning toward a tacoma with the larger engine. The climbing gyms here are no joke 10% 100k+ sprinter vans, 40% subaru, 20% tacoma, the rest mixed ;)

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#733

Post by grogenaut »

ipqk wrote: post #289
istjohn wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't disagree, but there would be a political shitstorm if you tried to take away their trucks.

You don't have to "take away" the trucks, but just make them more impractical: - sales tax on cars/trucks is by weight and exponentially increases the heavier the vehicle gets - increase taxes on gasoline - require a special license to operate a vehicle over XXXX lbs. - rewrite laws or encourage DAs to prosecute drivers that injure other people in cars or pedestrians even if it's unintentional - illegal to have passe…

Have you seen what pickemuptrucks cost these days? None of these financial changes would matter.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#734

Post by techdragon »

slver wrote: post #100
techdragon wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’d argue that on average the engineers working on these things understand things just barely well enough to implement these things in whatever hardware/software combination is selected. Any more understanding than that would be sub-optimal for shipping consumer products where cost optimisation is a primary concern as the salaries for more competent engineers would cost the company more. You can see this effect in ac…

So your default assumption is that a company whose entire division may be selling washing machines, doesn't give a damn about the programs that make those machines useful. Great.

Yes and no, my assumption is that the company only cares about the programs being useful enough to sell the washing machine.

There is no incentive to be any better than that. When the average washing machine lives long enough that the majority of consumers will come back to their next purchase without feeling annoyed about software related issues. Extra frills that pushed them over the line into purchasing a particular model didn't quite work out how they hoped, the iPhone app didn't get updates and looks bad on their new phone, etc ... these things wont factor into their next purchase. It's a psychological time horizon thing, enough water passes under the bridge and the customer stopped caring long enough ago.

So as long as it was otherwise a solid washing machine that didn't have mechanical issues mechanically or wash poorly they aren't likely to hold the manufacturer to account for their poor software quality breaking the "nice to haves".

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#735

Post by LargoLasskhyfv »

baybal2 wrote: post #365
neltnerb wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I get that this is a potential big problem, but I had to stop reading when the dog washing company blamed needing to respin a new board on a chip being out of stock due to this. I'm sorry, but if you aren't buying enough chips to build all the boards you want to build of a revision, this is just what happens, chip shortage or no. Stuff gets obsoleted all the time, it doesn't take a chip shortage. Blaming a black swan…

> I get that this is a potential big problem, but I had to stop reading when the dog washing company blamed needing to respin a new board on a chip being out of stock due to this. What you are suggesting is quite impractical, unless you are a really big business with cash, which can simply direct order components. Small businesses, even in Shenzhen, a place inundated with supply chain abundance, always have to either…

Interesting, some Chuwis caught my eye several times, but I dismissed them for uncertainty of Linux/BSD support. Is that even on their radar, or don't they care about it at all because F** those few nerds, they can reverse it themselves if they think they have to. I mean, in general it should work, because standard components, but in reality it depends on how the firmware glues them together.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#736

Post by istjohn »

newsclues wrote: post #343
istjohn wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't disagree, but there would be a political shitstorm if you tried to take away their trucks.

Not doing things for fear of political shitstorms is a large part of why everything is so broken these days. Terrible leadership!

You have to pick your fights. I'm not sure this is the hill to die on.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#737

Post by jiveturkey »

jfoutz wrote: post #120

I think a lot of folks underestimate how fabulously complicated it is to fab a chip. Yes, you can diy it in your garage, here's a wonderful implementation. http://sam.zeloof.xyz/first-ic/ But take a look at the specialized tools they used. Heck, think about proper handling of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrofluoric_acid and this is just a simple amp. imagine trying to make something with lots of gates? Making a si…

the author of that post and creator of the chip was a high schooler at the time. (now in college).

it’s a lot of detailed work. it was hard for the creators of the process. for us builders, the steps are there and reproducible. maybe you’re using hard in a different way than i am taking it.

gate count isn’t really the hard part either, to my best understanding.

just like software dev, hobby level and professional level are far apart in terms of what is the hard part. so i think i’m taking offense at your example as being exemplary of the “hard part”

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#738

Post by katbyte »

dieortin wrote: post #156
katbyte wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I couldn’t imagine not having smart lights, they are one of the few iot devices that make my life a lot more comfortable- def not a novelty

What do you use them for that is really helpful? I’m considering getting some Hue lightbulbs, but it seems like a bit of a waste.

Lights turn on and off automatically, I rarely have to do anything and they are how I want them when I want them / and don’t turn on when I’m Not at home and turn on when I arrive home. Turning on in the morning during winter helps a ton and when I do need a light on/off on demand it’s a voice command or the tap of a wireless battery less switch

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#739

Post by rajacombinator »

baybal2 wrote: post #713
rajacombinator wrote: post #684

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because everything I’ve read indicates that scenario is not in fact plausible. I’m wondering what the more likely but potentially equivalent alternatives are.

You need to understand, China does not want to reclaim Taiwan for any kind real political goal. Nobody in Beijing really cares for an armed to the teeth mountainous island. A threat of Taiwan invasion is not a threat they project to Taiwan itself, but to the world. - "Do this, and that or we are sending the world, and all your business interests back to iron age" That pretty much sums it. For this purpose, even just…

Hard for me to see what the profit in that is, and China seems to like profits.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#740

Post by jfoutz »

jiveturkey wrote: post #737
jfoutz wrote: post #120

I think a lot of folks underestimate how fabulously complicated it is to fab a chip. Yes, you can diy it in your garage, here's a wonderful implementation. http://sam.zeloof.xyz/first-ic/ But take a look at the specialized tools they used. Heck, think about proper handling of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrofluoric_acid and this is just a simple amp. imagine trying to make something with lots of gates? Making a si…

the author of that post and creator of the chip was a high schooler at the time. (now in college). it’s a lot of detailed work. it was hard for the creators of the process. for us builders, the steps are there and reproducible. maybe you’re using hard in a different way than i am taking it. gate count isn’t really the hard part either, to my best understanding. just like software dev, hobby level and professional lev…

Ah, no offense intended. There were a lot of calls to just build more fabs. I personally, and I think it's a common belief, that for a lot of software I could build a simple version, alone, over the weekend. When stackoverflow was new, replicating stack overflow was practically a meme.

I was trying to highlight, if you want to make a chip, you can, but it'll take a long time to build up the knowledge and skills. So maybe, you hire people with that knowledge and those skills. Of course, a lot of speed comes from not having to coordinate with lots of people. Small teams don't have as many communication channels, solo work has no communication channels.

There's probably a group of people and a set of supplies that could get a fab built surprisingly quickly. I don't think automakers are suffering from 5nm chips, they can get away with older processes. Good luck finding all those resources funding, coordinating, and building the process.

Perhaps not hard like discovering new process, but a _lot_ of work. It's not going to be a weekend project. This is what I meant by, It's going to be hard.

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