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US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

bbc.co.uk

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Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#731

Post by josephcsible »

mzs wrote: post #729
josephcsible wrote: post #713

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you believe good public health policy requires that there be restrictions on gatherings even where everyone is fully vaccinated, then what do you see as the path back to full normality? Or is this just how humanity has to live forever now?

Only 22.7% of US pop is fully vaccinated as of 0600 ET today. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations When that reaches +80% the recommendations will ease more but as of now: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/fully-vac...

Why does it matter how much of the US is vaccinated? For any given gathering, doesn't it only matter whether the people at that gathering are? Suppose 20,000 people, each from different households, all met at Madison Square Garden, and that they're all vaccinated. Why would that be more dangerous if nobody else in the world was vaccinated vs. if everybody else in the world was?

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#732

Post by argvargc »

atleta wrote: post #642
heywherelogingo wrote: post #582

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed, I've had all other vaccines, but this batch is rushed, experimental, and not necessary for me - labelling people such as myself "anti-vaxers" is just dishonest, bitter, childish, name calling. Very few people in my area of London have bothered with the so-called lockdown (too much was open to be called a lockdown), masks, etc - I expect I've had all variants, and apparently my immune system is on top of it, i…

Well, you may not be (or see yourself) an anti-vaxxer, and your right that it's not necessarily wise to label everyone as such who have concerns with these vaccines, but it also doesn't mean that your excuses make sense. The batch is not "rushed" more than it's needed: there IS an emergency. It's also not experimental. The experiments have all been done (up to phase 3). It's perfectly normal to only see 1 in a millio…

Zero experiments have been done on long-term effects, and you cannot, and no one can, counter this point.

That's the definition of "rushed".

Vaccines typically take several years of testing before being approved. These aren't approved according to those standards. Manufacturers are absolved from risks because of this "emergency use" status. Why absolve them if there are no risks? If they truly believed these were safe and of tremendously important benefit, they could stand up and say "we accept responsibility for negative outcomes in accordance with ordinarily approved medication, and waive our rights to emergency use protections". Then everyone would rush to take them as doubts would be broadly eliminated.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#733

Post by jjk166 »

fspeech wrote: post #716
jjk166 wrote: post #695

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But we're not observing people for 3 months and picking an arbitrary two week window. People do not get added to the population until they have taken the vaccine, and they are all observed for different lengths of time. We did not hypothesize a 2 week period beforehand and compare how many landed within to how many were outside that range, the 2 weeks is just a circle drawn around the datapoints after the fact.

Here is the chain of logic: 1. First assume independence, that CVST is unrelated to vaccination. 2. Take any two weeks, you can calculate the expected cases using population background rate because we assume independence. 3. The number is around 1 using Wikipedia data. 4. The observed case number 6 greatly exceeds the expected number based on independence assumption. 5. We conclude that with high probability that our…

Your logic breaks down at step 2. As a counter example, what are the odds that in the other 7 weeks you would have zero cases? Of course the answer is that this isn't how the data works.

You are not sampling a random, normally distributed event over a fixed interval, you are sampling the spacing between two different events where one of them is systemically linked to how you define the population and the interval.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#734

Post by tacitusarc »

js2 wrote: post #702

The risk of dying from a blood clot after receiving the J&J vaccine is six in 6,800,000 (6.8M). The world population is 7,900,000,000 (7.9B). If everyone on the planet got the J&J vaccine tomorrow, and if it is the cause of the clots, then 6,971 people would die from the vaccine. Yesterday, Covid19 killed 8,803 people (according to worldometers). We don't want anyone to die from vaccination, and we don't fully unders…

6 obvious deaths that we're aware of. The risk of the vaccines is in their novelty and morbidity. An abundance of caution is required in this instance. It would be very bad to discover that there's a vanishingly small chance of blood clots within the first 3 months but a significant chance when paired with other events over the following decade.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#736

Post by dheera »

js2 wrote: post #702

The risk of dying from a blood clot after receiving the J&J vaccine is six in 6,800,000 (6.8M). The world population is 7,900,000,000 (7.9B). If everyone on the planet got the J&J vaccine tomorrow, and if it is the cause of the clots, then 6,971 people would die from the vaccine. Yesterday, Covid19 killed 8,803 people (according to worldometers). We don't want anyone to die from vaccination, and we don't fully unders…

Why is everyone worried about blood clots, and not that the J&J vaccine has a crap-tastic efficiency of 66.3%?

Would you want the chef at your local takeout to be vaccinated to 66.3% efficiency? or 94%?

Why was this vaccine even approved, instead of just having J&J produce the same vaccine Pfizer and Moderna are making, which would be in the best interest of the world? Is this some utterly idiotic capitalism bullshit that prevents J&J from making a 94% vaccine as well?

Why can't we just take $100B out of the $1T military budget, throw it at Pfizer and Moderna to shut up their patent lawyers, and then hand the formula to J&J to become a 3rd factory for a good 94% mRNA vaccine?

And then hand that formula to the rest of the world including Brazil, India, China, and other recent new COVID hotspots so that the virus doesn't boomerang back to the US in an evolved form?

At least that's what I would do if I was president.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#737

Post by jolux »

sterlind wrote: post #719
jolux wrote: post #699

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Injecting IM solution into a blood vessel is excruciating and you and the provider would notice it immediately if it happened. It is likely to cause an embolism and possibly kill you, but I don't think it would be unnoticeable and then cause a thrombus multiple days later. There are also not a lot of major vessels near common injection sites, for this reason. It's possible and rather common to nick a surface capillar…

hah, I inject myself with estrogen subcutaneously. it gets absorbed quicker which causes peaks and troughs, but I get to use a smaller needle (25g x 5/8") and I don't have to worry so much about bruising or locating the right sites.

I should ask about subq. My current regimen gives me a lot of anxiety, even though I know it's pretty safe.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#738

Post by [deleted] »

da_big_ghey wrote: post #726
js2 wrote: post #702

The risk of dying from a blood clot after receiving the J&J vaccine is six in 6,800,000 (6.8M). The world population is 7,900,000,000 (7.9B). If everyone on the planet got the J&J vaccine tomorrow, and if it is the cause of the clots, then 6,971 people would die from the vaccine. Yesterday, Covid19 killed 8,803 people (according to worldometers). We don't want anyone to die from vaccination, and we don't fully unders…

But you are having conflate for deaths from each of things. Rates in dying are not homogeneous in J&J vax versus corona. J&J vax maybe is received by many younglings who are not risking death so much from Corona for benefit of old. It is not yet being known for if J&J vax is having any greater risk for older people or younger people. So calculus is maybe not so simple. If I are healthy young person maybe it is not a…

[deleted]

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#739

Post by baggy_trough »

Verdex wrote: post #580
baggy_trough wrote: post #495

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Half a million Americans are dead. This is wartime. We don't have time to coddle bureaucrats who make awful decisions.

> This is wartime. Wrong. In a war you win by outsmarting other people. Maybe that's through democracy, maybe it's by moving faster, maybe it's by having better technology, maybe it's by having more technology. This is a pandemic. A health crisis caused by a virus. In this situation you win by carefully understanding the nature of the virus and then determining what needs to happen in order to shut it down. Making ra…

I don't think you're appreciating the magnitude of the error here. This kind of complacency, typical of the public health bureaucracy, has led to a large net increase in death.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#740

Post by throwawaysea »

jonplackett wrote: post #424
jaegerpicker wrote: post #406

7 people out of 7 million dose's. That's why they stopped. My wife and I got the J&J shot on Saturday so I'm directly at risk and I'd take it everytime even if the risk was 10 times what it currently is. I've already seen a bunch of anit-vaxers referring to this in new articles this morning. So let's see, 1 in a million chance that the vaccine will make you sick (only 1 person has died so far, which is terrible but i…

I just made this website to show you how really, really small the risks are for the AstraZeneca vaccine which also has this ‘issue’. It compares the risks of dying from a blood clot after the AZ vaccine (about 1 in a million) to the risks we happily take every single day. http://whatoneinamillionmeans.com If you're not willing to take 1 in a million chances, it's gonna be pretty hard for you to get out of bed today

This is true, but I find it funny and frustrating that people are so ready to selectively treat rare odds as catastrophic in other circumstances that suit their worldview. For example, urbanists are ready to accept the premise of Vision Zero, which aims to push road fatalities down to zero. Today, there is approximately 1 traffic fatality per 100 million miles traveled in the US. It's so rare that it doesn't deserve attention, but here we are, with people looking to force cars to drive slowly (or ban them outright) to try and chase a world with perfect risk-free conditions. I am betting the same cohort that supports Vision Zero overlaps significantly with the group that thinks none of these vaccines should be paused. I'm sure there are similar examples of logical inconsistency that we can highlight for any political/social cohort as well - that's just one example. But my point is people tend to selectively make data driven arguments only when it suits them.
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