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Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

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Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#721

Post by ignoramous »

jabl wrote: post #122
xvilka wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And Azure still doesn't support IPv6, looking at the GitHub[1]. [1] https://github.com/orgs/community/discussions/10539

Perhaps they should use OpenAI models to figure out how to rollout IPv6.

Some food for thought:

  If GitHub flipped a switch and enabled IPv6 it would instantly break many of their customers who have configured IP based access controls [1]. If the customer's network supports IPv6, the traffic would switch, and if they haven't added their IPv6 addresses to the policy ... boom everything breaks.

  This is a tricky problem; providers don't have an easy way to correlate addresses or update policies pro-actively. And customers hate it when things suddenly break no matter how well you go about it.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47790889

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#722

Post by cruffle_duffle »

freediddy wrote: post #127
dijit wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everything is personal preference, and perhaps I am more fiscally conservative because I grew up in poverty. But if I own 49% of a company and that company has more hype than product, hasn't found its market yet but is valued at trillions? I'm going to sell percentages of that to build my war chest for things that actually hit my bottom line. The "moonshot" has for all intents and purposes been achieved based on the…

Microsoft didn't sell anything. OpenAI created more shares and sold those to investors, so Microsoft's stake is getting diluted. And Microsoft only paid $10B for that stake for the most recognizable name brand for AI around the world. They don't need to "hedge their bets" it's already a humongous win. Why let Altman continue to call the shots and decrease Microsoft's ownership stake and ability to dictate how OpenAI…

I think people are looking for excuses to declare OpenAI and Anthropic teetering on the brink of failure when the actual reality is… they are wildly successful by absolutely any measure. This deal is proof. If Microsoft didn’t believe in OpenAI they wouldn’t have restructured it this way. They’d have tightened their reins and brought in “adult supervision”

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#723

Post by _vertigo »

nl wrote: post #679
coder-3 wrote: post #606

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting. Why? My current mental model is that AMD chips are just a bit behind, so, less efficient, but no biggie. Do labs even use CUDA?

This is somewhat out of date (Dec 2024), but gives you some idea of how far behind AMD was then: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/mi300x-vs-h100-vs-h200... Pull quotes: AMD’s software experience is riddled with bugs rendering out of the box training with AMD is impossible. We were hopeful that AMD could emerge as a strong competitor to NVIDIA in training workloads, but, as of today, this is unfortunately not the…

That’s insane. There should be a big team of people at AMD whose whole job is just to dogfood their stuff for training like this. Speaking of which, Amazon is in the same boat, I’m constantly surprised that Amazon is not treating improving Inferentia/Trainium software as an uber-priority. (I work at Amazon)

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#724

Post by nimchimpsky »

Dylan16807 wrote: post #701
Oras wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their revenue is 20B, so they still worth multiples of 10B regardless of valuation even if you consider the basic 5x revenue valuation https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-cfo-says-annualized-...

"The basic 5x revenue valuation" doesn't work for businesses that aren't profitable.

[dead]

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#726

Post by scottjg »

AuthAuth wrote: post #611
jorvi wrote: post #381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The GPU is monstrously good. Depending on the workload, the M1 series GPU using 120W could beat an RTX 3090 using 420W. Same with the CPU. Linux compiled faster on an M1 than on the fastest Intel i9 at the time, again using only 25% of the power budget. And the M-series has only gotten better. It is kind of sad Apple neglects helping developers optimize games for the M-series because iDevices and MacBooks could be th…

>the M1 series GPU using 120W could beat an RTX 3090 using 420W You're cooked if you actually believe this

I very recently ran the numbers on these GPUs for an upcoming blog post. The token generation performance is bad, but the prefill performance is _really_ bad.

For a Qwen 3.6 35B / 3B MoE, 4-bit quant:

- parsing a 4k prompt on a M4 Macbook Air takes 17 seconds before generating a single token.

- on an M4 Max Mac Studio it's faster at 2.3 seconds

- on an RTX 5090, it's 142ms.

RTX 5090 uses more power than an M4 Max Mac Studio but it's not 16x more power.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#727

Post by stingraycharles »

digitaltrees wrote: post #725

As former corporate restructuring lawyer…this kind of stuff indicates the cash strapped scramble of the end days.

Seems more like OpenAI is planning to IPO and that would not have been possible within the previous arrangement, and Microsoft knows that.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#728

Post by jiggawatts »

wolvoleo wrote: post #699
jiggawatts wrote: post #610

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One is caused by the other. Amazons engineers decided to split the interface in a “user hostile” manner with the stated purpose of increasing reliability… which didn’t materialise. The clunky UI did. Or maybe you can provide a better explanation for why users had to “hunt” through hundreds(!) of product-region combinations to find that last lingering service they were getting billed $0.01 a month for? This just doesn…

One of the things I find about AWS is that every service UI feels different. It's like every service was designed by a totally different team. For all its flaws at least Azure has consistent UI.

> It's like every service was designed by a totally different team.

Yes, by design.

Conceptually this improves velocity and reduces the blast radius of failure.

In practice, everything depends on IAM, S3, VPC, and EC2 directly or indirectly, so this doesn't help anywhere near as much as one would think.

Azure and GCP have a split control plane where there's a global register of resources, but the back-end implementations are split by team.

That way the users don't see Conway's Law manifest in the browser urls... as much. (You still do if you pay attention! In Azure the "provider type" is in the path instead of the host name.)

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#729

Post by wg0 »

marcellus23 wrote: post #678
wg0 wrote: post #615

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "seems" is NOT equal to "is". The gravity seems like a force to us like magnets are. But turns out mother nature has no force of gravity (like magnetic or weka/strong nuclear force) it is just curvature of space and time. Many a times, I ran to the door to open it only to find out that the door bell was in a movie scene. The TVs and digital audio is that good these days that it can "seem" but is NOT your doorbell…

It's very easy to say, "well, of course, a thing that looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, is not necessarily a duck." But when you're presented with something indistinguishable from a duck in every way, how do you determine whether it's a duck? You can't just say "well I know it's not a duck". It's dodging the question.

Well. AI doesn't walk or quack like a duck.

Ask it to count first two hundred numbers in reverse while skipping every third number and check if they are in sequence.

Check the car wash examples on YouTube.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#730

Post by Nimitz14 »

nl wrote: post #685
ttul wrote: post #612

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you do the math (I did), in 2 years, open source models that you can run on a future MacBook Pro will be as capable as the frontier cloud models are today. Memory bandwidth is growing rapidly, as is the die area dedicated to the neural cores. And all the while, we have the silicon getting more power efficient and increasingly dense (as it always does). These hardware improvements are coming along as the open sourc…

A Opus 4.7/Gpt5.5 class model is 5 trillion parameters[1]. To run a 8 bit quantized version of that you need roughly 5TB of RAM. Today that is around 18 NVidia B300. That's around $900,000, without including the computers to run them in. It's true that the capability of open source models is improving, but running actual frontier models on your MPB seems a way off. [1] https://x.com/elonmusk/status/204212356166685523…

I think your own math leads to the conclusion the public apis are not serving models of that size. They couldn’t afford to
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