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We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

derekthompson.org

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Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#721

Post by joelthelion »

kqr wrote: post #506
joelthelion wrote: post #499

There is a class of prediction markets that are useful and seem immune to most of these problems : play money prediction markets. I've been enjoying them for years; I feel they provide a useful service to understand what is going on in the world, and they don't seem to provide the perverse incentives that we are seeing here. Oh, and they seem to work just as well.

Indeed. I also want to give a recommendation in favour of forecast aggregation platforms like Metaculus and GJOpen. Aggregating forecasts works well even without phrasing it as gambling, because you can still have users compete to be the most accurate.

The benefit I see to prediction markets is that you don't have to constantly update your predictions, and yet they still provide useful results. Metaculus and friends are just too much work for me.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#722

Post by xeyownt »

firloop wrote: post #598
xeyownt wrote: post #596

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Typo. It's obvious it can't be a revenue. Previous paragraph is dealing with the size of online gambling industry, next paragraph is about the same but for prediction market.

Well, the previous paragraph compares how much people bet online with how much people spend on airfare, which also isn't quite right. It assumes 100% of what people bet is lost. For sure, the house always wins, but the amount lost is probably closer to 50-60% of what is quoted.

It's market size. It shows the interest in some activity. Laundry and airfare are for sure necessary & valuable activities, whereas the interest of betting (for a society) is questionable.

The question is what do you do with your money. If you are a pharaon, and pay a good salary to build pyramids, is that good? People get paid, pharaon gets his pyramid. However, as a society, the loss is all the efforts that could have been spent on something much more useful, like hospitals, schools, roads... For the betting industry, no money is lost, it goes to the winner or the house. But how will these people use their money next?

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#723

Post by flir »

WalterBright wrote: post #701
flir wrote: post #511

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you see those two processes as orthagonal?

Transferring A to B is concentrating it in B. B creating something has nothing to do with A.

> nothing to do with

quite.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#724

Post by JoeDaDude »

GCA10 wrote: post #108

Hardcore gamblers' tendency to lash out at athletes, when bets go wrong, can get really scary. This is Point No. 2 in Thompson's analysis -- and it deserves a closer look. From what I've seen, the level of threats, abuse, etc. is just horrifying. The 30x increase in money bet, sadly, seems to be translating into a 30x increase in betters' hostile conduct.

I've seen a huge amount of videos of sports fans having melt downs when their team/player loses, to the point of destroying their own TVs and attacking their guests. I have to believe gambling is a factor in this behavior.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#725

Post by mcmcmc »

cowpig wrote: post #690
mcmcmc wrote: post #672

Earlier quoted context omitted.

See I would say the malignant part is the systems and people in power who enable and profit from corruption.

The statement that "this is how it works, it's completely corrupt" is what enables the corruption. It is only through the collective demand that systems serve us that they can be aligned. If you believe that the system is corrupt then your decisionmaking function will conclude that taking action to demand systems serve you is useless. But it's only useless if we collectively believe it is useless. This is what I mean…

[dead]

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#726

Post by 1dontnkow_ »

mquander wrote: post #431
mcmcmc wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the difference between the two is Amazon and Meta do provide some utility to balance it out, whereas gambling is purely a net negative on society. You can be young and naive enough to believe you're "making the world a better place" in big tech. You can't work on pure gambling products without being a scammer at heart; you know what you signed up for.

This comment would make more sense if it were before the new wave of prediction markets, which are high-profile gambling products clearly largely made and popularized by true believers who think they are making the world a better place.

Thinking gambling in any way or form makes the world a better place or just leaves it as it is, is utterly delusional and any contact (or support) with that person should be avoided like the plague.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#727

Post by 1dontnkow_ »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #266
littlecranky67 wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is not black/white. If you have a qualified candidate that asks less money and reject them over a less-qualified candidate on the sole grounds they worked for a prediction marked, it could be called silly. If the discprancy in qualification and salary demends is high enough and you do this repeatedly, it can be gross misconduct and not only a reason to be fired, but to be held financially liable for the damage.

> If the discprancy in qualification and salary demends is high enough and you do this repeatedly, it can be gross misconduct and not only a reason to be fired, but to be held financially liable for the damage Again, major caveat, if you do it without disclosing your reasons, possibly. And unless you're personally profiting from it in some way, highly doubtful on financial liability. (Disclaier: not a lawyer.)

Just put it at top of values or some kinda culture fit or hiring policy document, and youre fine.

PS: Not absolutely every company has to let go of all morals and focus purely on profit. Thats the beauty of companies, you can open and lead them for different reasons.

Im from Germany and there are many companies like that, there the Values (or a Mission) that are actually taken into account when decision making and sometimes you lose money but that's expected and normal.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#728

Post by 1dontnkow_ »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #185
bluetidepro wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm in senior leadership, and have made it clear that anyone who has worked on these products should not be hired. Can't say I agree with that specific take (and find it a bit naive to be honest), unless you're also not hiring anyone from companies like Amazon, Meta, and all the other tech companies that have also ruined/preyed on society in their own way just as much as any gambling app has.

> unless you're also not hiring anyone from companies like Amazon, Meta, and all the other tech companies that have also ruined/preyed on society in their own way just as much as any gambling app has It depends on the role. If you were doing something deeply technical, or facing customers who loved your work, I think you get a pass. If you were building features nobody outside your company is thankful for, you need t…

I remember a company during the interview asked me are things I do not work with or don't like, especially since they had a very diverse team culturally where e.g. some folks couldn't work on any kinda gambling resembling platform due to their religious beliefs.

I told them that TBH didn't think much before about it, appreciate the question and to answer: I could never see myself working on weapons used for war, products used by countries to repress their population (relevant due to my upbringing) or any kinda of mass surveillance system. The HR just noted them down but I saw every technical person smiled and understood truly what I'm talking about and they insured me that they so and so don't ever work on those kinda projects.

PS: before someone comes now and says "BUT DO U USE IG?!" No I don't use most social platforms but also if I did just because I'm flawed and the system isnt perfect, doesn't mean I'm gonna give up on all my morals right away and not choose better when I have the option.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#729

Post by 1dontnkow_ »

cortesoft wrote: post #341
Barrin92 wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this is a false equivalence. Amazon and Meta have caused plenty of damage, companies in our capitalist economies are bad etc. But shipping you books or connecting you to other people isn't inherently evil. There's nothing wrong with the service itself. Gambling is. It's been a vice in virtually every culture for thousands of years. It's akin to peddling drugs. The practice itself is corrosive and destroys people. It'…

> There's nothing wrong with the service itself. Gambling is. I think this is waaaay too black and white. Gambling can be fun, and there isn't anything wrong with enjoying gambling in a healthy manner. It is very comparable to drinking, I think. I refuse to apologize for enjoying the occasional drink or the occasional game of poker. I like a poker game with friends, I enjoy sitting at a blackjack table for a few hour…

I have no problem with gambling as long we are absolutely sure its not done by children and teens, heavily regulated, strong limits (e.g. one play per day), required training or community memberships at addiction groups and things like that.

I didn't finish the full registration but Polymarket basically didn't ask about anything besides email and new pass. Maybe later when someone wants to bet but it should be harder and take a week at least like a cooldown effect, and never more than 100 EUR at a time.

There are many ways to heavily regulate it so that a few people can enjoy it at times occasionally but help those people who need it and make it very hard for them to come back. But then the income iwould be so small it wouldnt land on the news anymore.

PS: Not an expert in gambling and addiction, my concrete examples might not work but still I haven't seen other efforts so that was my point.

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