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The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

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Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#721

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The dimension of this issue that never gets air time is that we've made having kids almost completely intentional. The richer a country becomes, the more intentional having kids becomes. The dynamic we see with rich countries is that as having kids becomes more intentional, there's also the increase in reasons why people would choose to delay or forego having kids.

Yes, this absolutely appears to be the main reason. Both in practical terms through birth control, but also through cultural terms in that it's now seen as a choice rather than as an obvious thing you do. To change this course, we probably need to change the culture first so that a birth control ban will be supported. That's currently not looking likely, so population collapse it is

> birth control ban will be supported

Wtf... totally the wrong tool to change the calculus of intentionally having children.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#722
post #428

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh good grief, parents with SUVs aren't that complex, and they are often purchased to carry around their kids' friends as well (negating your first point). People do what works for them within their budget, which often is a larger vehicle when you have kids. If you want to translate that as "speed and comfort is of the essence", then fine. I could say the same about someone with no kids who prefers living in a highly…

> they are often purchased to carry around their kids' friends as well but it requires an adult to drive that SUV. Car culture has made it so kids don't have autonomy to move themselves around anymore. When I was 8 I used to be able to walk/bike around the neighborhood to see my friends. Then we moved to car-dependent suburbia and things were so much worse. Having to depend on adults to go places added a lot of frict…

> but it requires an adult to drive that SUV. Car culture has made it so kids don't have autonomy to move themselves around anymore. When I was 8 I used to be able to walk/bike around the neighborhood to see my friends. Then we moved to car-dependent suburbia and things were so much worse. Having to depend on adults to go places added a lot of friction. The end result is that we'd usually just spend a lot of time inside the house.

My kids can (and do) walk around our neighborhood. You chose to live somewhere that didn't support that and lament it, for reasons that are not clear to me.

We also drive our SUV when the number of passengers exceeds 5, which is not uncommon at all in our household. Occasionally, we drive it solo or with less than 5 passengers, because it makes sense to do so.

> Just look at the dystopia we live in right now: some parents literally drive a Chevy Tahoe or equivalent SUV to school to drop their kids off. How many school-aged children can you fit into the blindspot of a car like that? Are we at all surprised that parents don't want their kids walking to school alone?

Large vehicles are "dystopia"? There are plenty cruising around my town yet a kid has literally never been hit in the 20 years I've lived there.

And kids walk to school alone or in small groups on the sidewalks, with crossing guards protecting them at intersections.

> I literally have to tell my son to hold his breath as we bike by long lines of SUVs idling right next to a school

Okay. Are these cars all from the 1970s, before any modern emission standards were enacted?

> It's funny that I don't drive and I transport my 3 kids around almost exclusively by bike. Yet people who live in my neighborhood with kids insist that they need an SUV for all trips. (yes, I can afford any car if I wanted one).

Good for you. I have zero interest in spending an hour plus biking my kids to and from the grocery store, so we just drive and then play in our yard when we get back. Or we just walk if we have the time and interest.

> I even organize bike trips so other parents can bring their kids to events by bike so we don't need to get cars involved.

Sounds great. We have these too, without the irrational fear of cars included.

> I think we've fooled ourselves into thinking we need cars far more than we actually do.

"Need" is a relative term. I don't "need" indoor plumbing to survive, yet it's nice to have and most people would consider it a need (including my wife and kids).

I see no reason to reduce my standard of living by basically taking up cycling as an unpaid part time job. If you enjoy it or just feel like it's time well spent, again, good for you.

> Yes, there are dystopian places that are completely car-dependent and don't even have sidewalks, but even in places that aren't like that people still insist that they need cars for everything.

Again, using "dystopian" to describe a place that is car dependent is a pretty fringe view. It's not surprising that not many people agree.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#723

incels blame women, femcels blame men, the left blames cost of living, the right blames lack of values, journalists blame the current thing. it's all so tiresome. the real reason is both boring and obvious: a very significant percentage of educated urban people in the developed world don't want children. both sexes have a very high number of very valid reasons for that, and it's very pointless to examine any particul…

I think you're the closest to being right, but assuming that dystopia can actually arise is a stretch. A proper understanding of the world incorporates the understanding that there the population and leadership are a fluid, with people moving back and forth all the time. Maybe with a robot army the rulers can impose a dystopia for the rest, but at that point we also would have infinite robot labor, so it's kind of a cop-out.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#724
post #702

This is happening everywhere , including nations with great social systems/healthcare/parental leave/etc. And it happens even when nations try throwing money at the problem. While economic concerns may be worsening the issue - I don't think they're the root cause as many would like to say. I think the root cause is that we have outsmarted our biology. Once you give people education on the risks of sex and pregnancy,…

Everyone is talking about it like a problem that need correcting. Why? Less people seems like it could be better for everyone and everything already here, assuming "great social systems" are in place.

I think it's that assumption is the problem. Most social systems are predicated on having enough net contributors to provide for net recipients, but with a declining population the ratio of contributors/recipients can get small. There may be solutions to this, but current social systems will likely fail if left unchanged. That doesn't mean the only solution is population growth, but we do need to do something

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#725

This is happening everywhere , including nations with great social systems/healthcare/parental leave/etc. And it happens even when nations try throwing money at the problem. While economic concerns may be worsening the issue - I don't think they're the root cause as many would like to say. I think the root cause is that we have outsmarted our biology. Once you give people education on the risks of sex and pregnancy,…

Yes, exactly. I think the real reason why we don't see aliens is that once the population reaches certain level of intelligence and awareness, it takes only one generation thinking "this is not worth it" to cause dramatic population collapse which might wipe out entire species. And the thing is, "life isn't worth it" might actually be true, as much as evolution does everything to convince us otherwise. But now that I…

Following your argument, another solution would be simply to enact measures to revert that "certain level of intelligence and awareness", and it seems that some countries are doing just that, if not exactly for the sake of reproduction :-) . So there's hope for population growth I guess?

> Now that I think of it, maybe the problem is that human societies grew too big too fast and our brains didn't adapt. We're capable of self-sacrifice, just in a group of max 20, not 20 million. We need a completely new paradigm of organizing the society.

This however is something I agree with, fully.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#726

I like to hang out on fertility twitter. It's a strange place. Since the fertility problem is worldwide, you get a lot of ideologies mixing about. There's hardcore CCP folks, free market Mormons, radical Imams, universalist preachers, the whole lot of them. They're all trying to share ideas and jumping on the latest research findings from reputable and crackpot sources. They're all looking for the recipe to get peopl…

> Only if the mothers in aggregate truly believe that their children will have good lives, then will they have them. Parents have never truly cared whether or not their children will have "good lives", certainly not in any - "i'll sit down and analyze carefully if my offspring will have a good time" type of way. Child mortality rate used to be something like 50% in past. People still have insane fertility rates in co…

"People still have insane fertility rates in complete - objectively shitholes - like Bangladesh, etc."

Here is the fertility rate in Bangladesh: https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/bgd/ban...

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#727

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is another way to go about this. Statistically immigrants from Latin America have lower crime rates than the average American. It is possible to increase population AND decrease the crime rate by allowing immigrants into the country. Personally, as someone with capital, having people who also work hard for less salary is beneficial. Most native born Americans are much poorer than I am so I understand their fear…

The US isn't that attractive for white collar Latin Americans either. For example, the kind of Mexican who can get a job at Google MTV or ATX would also be able to work at Reddit CDMX for around $80k-$100k TC or McKinsey CDMX for $130k-160k TC. Even for blue collar immigrants working undocumented in the US, a large portion were formerly lower middle class before the states they lived in either failed (eg. Venezuela)…

CMDX is where we did a LOT of offshoring pre-COVID. Ditto for folks in Baja to cover timezones.

Definitely a paycut compared to the US but still pretty great for MX. Timezones and cultural overlap were pretty good, and there was a vibe that the folks coming out of Universities in CDMX were genuinely good, compared to iffy paper tigers in the Indian call centers.

The TN visa was also attractive, since we could just bring them north for a rotation or two. The Mexican workers love it since there was a big pay bump, but also the expectation they could continue their job back in MX later; bring em up to the RDU or Austin, put em in a few leadership roles, and then have them run a unit in MX, or help coordinate other LATAM efforts.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#728

I like to hang out on fertility twitter. It's a strange place. Since the fertility problem is worldwide, you get a lot of ideologies mixing about. There's hardcore CCP folks, free market Mormons, radical Imams, universalist preachers, the whole lot of them. They're all trying to share ideas and jumping on the latest research findings from reputable and crackpot sources. They're all looking for the recipe to get peopl…

It's just hard now. Before I had kids I had a network of friends and had a great social life. Now it's just me and my wife. If I want more friends I'll have to have more kids I guess? I have 4 now. One (my first) is severely autistic. Financially the cost? I pay about 6,000 a month in daycare. 2k a month in healthcare expenses. Then community wise. Every time I've gone to take them to the movies, or to a restaurant o…

Your experience sounds exactly like mine. My son is very autistic as well. I've had to cut off friends with families because either their didn't understand meltdown and were incredibly judgy because they were blaming my parenting for his ASD meltdowns, or others because my autistic son was a "bad influence". God forbid their (later diagnosed) kid have some exposure to a child with different neurodiversities.

That's not even going into my traumatic health care experience to getting my son help when he needed it.

So now I have all the hardships of raising a family, and I'm restricted friendship within the small ND accepting community of my area. So my support network is incredibly small and I barely get any support. It sucks.

Reading the responses to your story that are nitpicking it over your daycare experience is a perfect representation of the problems that families face.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#729

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every morning I get to my son's school about 10 minutes before the doors open. We arrive by bike and we sit ALONE on the benches near the front door. Meanwhile, the curb is full of extra large SUVs idling with kids just waiting inside the cars. The long line of SUVs extends all through the neighborhood. My son and I are alone because people just won't leave their cars until the doors open. A vast majority of the kids…

Anecdotally my experience is dramatically different. Last week I arrived by car right near the beginning of dropoff time. Pulling in right in front of me was the mom of one of my kid's classmates, carpooling with another kid who lives in the same apartment complex. The three of them met up as soon as they got out of the car, and then another one of their friends (who lives across the street from the school and usuall…

I think it is crazy that you have gates to get into the school grounds (buildings should be locked, I get that). Like my BIL in Sydney suburbs, he lives right next to a school with super nice basketball court etc, but can kids use those on weekends? Sadly no.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#730
post #647

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> They menace and threaten "people just out and about in the neighborhood"? It is hard to engage in good faith when you are baldly making statements that are completely unsupported. There are no shortage of videos showing ICE agents on roaming patrols in Minnesota -- and elsewhere -- menacing anyone they come across who appears undesirable. All you have to do is not look away. https://www.thisamericanlife.org/880/wha…

Would you mind linking to some of the videos? You link here to an episode of This American Life featuring 911 calls.

While disturbing to listen to, without context, I don't hear anything to substantiate the claim of ICE agents menacing anyone they come across.

All the videos I've seen, [1], [2], [3], for example, from a quick check, are ICE reacting unprofessionally and with excessive force against people who are deliberately attempting to obstruct or interfere with them. Let's not play games here and say that they are menacing innocent people walking down the sidewalk. That's not to say that these assaults are justified or appropriate, but let's start the conversation in a good faith position, and not make up bullshit about ICE walking around menacing innocent bystanders.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g5aK7o6fEJg

[2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5w05TcQIVQ

[3] https://www.youtube.com/shorts/tOaJAd3lkdM

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