American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis • Hacker News Board

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#721

Post by lovich » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 3:55 AM UTC

brightball wrote: post #703

immibis wrote: post #693

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Trade deficit" is another word for "free stuff" and also another word for "being the world's reserve currency". America receives massive quantities of free stuff from other countries and gets to control the banking system of the entire world as a side effect (this is how it manages to collect taxes from non-resident citizens and how it makes sanctions meaningful). Why doesn't America want that to continue?

Is there any reason America can’t continue that without giving every critical manufacturing industry to China?

No there isn’t a reason to do that, but I want to call out that you asked about “critical” industries and this is a thread about tariffs which the admin put on all products, including inputs to industries.

Don’t compare apples to tennis balls.

And in regards to the trade deficit, everytime I look at it the numbers it only includes physical products and not services. We’re a heavily service based economy since producing a Facebook is several steps down the tech tree from producing screws.

So again I will ask why a trade deficit on products is bad. We’re just buying shit from less complex economies or ones where the comparative advantage of trade works out. We’re not getting ripped off.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#722

Post by CalChris » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 3:57 AM UTC

immibis wrote: post #694

CalChris wrote: post #687

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, Harris and Biden are not heavily held in contempt by most of the Left. I'm on the Left and voted for both of them. Indeed, as a Progressive, I was pleasantly surprised by Biden for his withdrawal from Afghanistan, student loan forgiveness, his canceling the Keystone Pipeline, etc.

Being pleasantly surprised by things that should be the bare minimum is not a sign you hold him in high regard. How do you feel about his attacks on Gaza?

Biden had a resupply pier constructed for Gaza when Israel attacked. He didn't attack Gaza at all. Troll elsewhere.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#723

Post by Dirak » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 4:16 AM UTC

uniqueuid wrote: post #570

lingrush4 wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact that they don't have an agenda written into their charter doesn't mean they don't have an agenda. Basically every American news organization is an example of this.

While your assessment may be true in many contexts, this is not one of them. American hyper polarization does not permeate other countries in the same degree and German academia is actually full of sober, level-headed, nuanced people.

This has never been the case across the history of humanity -- there has never existed a non-biased institution, and it's incredibly naive to think that a German think tank funded by the German government would be any exception.

"Level headed" and "sober" people are not immune to the effects of incentives and conflicts of interest. Researchers are dependent on grants, on invitations to conferences, etc., and so are liable to follow trends (tariffs bad), and p-hack to support the mainstream narrative (as they do in this analysis with P values > 0.01).

> German academia is actually full of sober, level-headed, nuanced people

Thanks for the laugh. I hope you realize how pretentious this sounds. In actuality, Germany's GDP is about 1/6th of that of the US, so these German academics don't sound very bright for how "level headed" and "sober" they are.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#724

Post by intended » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 4:24 AM UTC

NetMageSCW wrote: post #628

intended wrote: post #432

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its an interesting point you end up raising - does it still count as a strategy even if you are doing something patently impossible given the knowledge and intelligence at your disposal? If someone decided to come up with a strategy to do something fanciful, like find the pot of gold at the end of a rainbow to solve their debt problems, would it really be worthy enough to be called a strategy?

What knowledge and intelligence would that be?

If we take the absolutely narrow scope of just Tariffs - Elementary economics, and history from far and wide. We know exactly what tariffs achieve and fail to achieve. It’s the stuff of 101 Econ classes.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#725

Post by freetinker » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 4:45 AM UTC

riffraff wrote: post #302

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are using "believed" - past tense. Facts change nothing. This report means nothing. These people still believe. The report is wrong. They are right. The truth is whatever they want it to be, not something out of their control.

I have a friend who works with american tourists visiting europe, mostly older folks, mostly to religious sights. They are, for the vast majority, indoctrinated beyond any chance of reasonable change of opinion. Talking with him makes _me_ worry about my own beliefs, because if these people can be so blind, maybe I am too.

You’re self-questioning and self-reflective. Totally not worried for you or by you. Keep it up.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#726

Post by rawgabbit » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC

nobody9999 wrote: post #716

rawgabbit wrote: post #606

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/11/democrats-... “As we move into the endgame of the 2022 election, the Democrats face a familiar problem. America’s historical party of the working class keeps losing working-class support.” “This year, Democrats have chosen to run a campaign focused on three things: abortion rights, gun control, and safeguarding democracy—issues with strong appeal to socially libe…

>From https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/11/democrats- ... You conveniently left out that the author (Ruy Teixeira[0]) of the piece you quoted is a senior fellow at the right-wing think tank that authored the Project 2025 roadmap. Should we ask Stalin to critique US Cold War policies? Or maybe ask Xi Xinping to publicly assess the relative strengths and weaknesses of Taiwan's defense posture too? [0] http…

False analogy. The Atlantic is a Democratic mouth piece and they posted his message because we Democrats will keep losing if we don’t wake up. Here is an article from another author with a similar message.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2025/02/democra...

Quote: The February 18 focus group, in a state that saw deep Democratic erosion last year and will elect a new governor this fall, was the first stop of a new $4.5 million research project centered on working-class voters in 20 states that could hold the key to Democratic revival. American Bridge 21st Century, an independent group that spent about $100 million in 2024 trying to defeat Trump, has decided to invest now in figuring out what went wrong, how Trump’s second term is being received, and how to win back voters who used to be Democratic mainstays but now find themselves in the Republican column.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#727

Post by tptacek » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 5:25 AM UTC

brianwawok wrote: post #704

bee_rider wrote: post #463

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t really know how we’d get there, but the US would be better structured as an EU of regions, IMO. The states are too small, but we’ve got regions with definite noticeable cultural differences (Northeast vs Southeast, etc etc). These areas have more similar values than the country as a whole, and are big enough to handle 99% of their issues. Like, we should not have done the ACA, just merged all the various alre…

Kind of, but also it’s complicated. For example, Chicago is blue blue blue. 500 miles in every direction outside the city is red. 90% of the area of Illinois is red. But Chicago is so much more massive that Illinois votes blue in the end. So what the heck region is Chicago in, and the red part of IL? I don’t know CA well but I know it’s blue with very deep red pockets.

50 miles out of Chicago will get you to red counties.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#728

Post by spiderfarmer » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC

jillesvangurp wrote: post #368

u1hcw9nx wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

3 days ago world's largest free-trade area was created when EU and Mercosur bloc signed free trade deal after 25 years of negotiations. EU + South America start trading more while America shuts itself out.

Also see recent trade deal between Canada and China. And of course Canada and the EU have a trade deal. And Merz was visiting India recently so there are also trade deals between India and the EU coming. In short, everybody is trading with everybody. The US might have an easy to choice to make after Trump. Regardless of who takes over. Simply roll back tariffs and instantly boost the economy. The protection aspect of…

Trust comes on foot and leaves on horseback.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#729

Post by culebron21 » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 6:39 AM UTC

b00ty4breakfast wrote: post #619

lostlogin wrote: post #484

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In Israel, virtually every Christian relic is fake. The Italian Catholics have got a handle on this with many of their relics. Bits of various saints are in glass boxes all over Italy. Presumably they could be DNA tested?

DNA tested for what, exactly? I guess things like fragmentary remains may not be human, but a full skull is not so easy to confuse for a donkey. Ethnicity would only be useful if the saint in question had origins that would be out of place in Italy or if they had a specific ethnicity(like St Peter's remains not having a Levantine origin).

Soviets did this in 1918-20, without DNA analysis, of course.

https://ru-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/%D0%9A%D0%B0%D0...

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#730

Post by riffraff » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 7:03 AM UTC

lostlogin wrote: post #484

aj7 wrote: post #422

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In Israel, virtually every Christian relic is fake. Some are hundreds of years old, but nevertheless fake. This is not a comment on Christianity as a religion. Religions need relics, and if they can’t find them, they are created. This is operating in modern times. I was working as a contractor for Intel Israel. They took everybody on a day trip. To an LDS temple to “see the organ” (what else?). An American LDS church…

> In Israel, virtually every Christian relic is fake. The Italian Catholics have got a handle on this with many of their relics. Bits of various saints are in glass boxes all over Italy. Presumably they could be DNA tested?

Older relics can be tested, but the Catholic church won't really allow it, e.g. San Gennaro's blood in Naples is a flask of red clotted liquid which melts during some ceremonies, and is quite likely not blood at all. But there's a massive community of believers and thus it will not be challenged by the church.

For more modern miracles and relics the church does have a tight grip, and famously one pope threw a whole bag of Christ teeth in the Tiber river, but many older things have been "grandfathered".