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The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

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Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#721

Post by gardenhedge »

godelski wrote: post #588
digitcatphd wrote: post #474

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As of now yes. But we are still in day 0.1 of GenAI. Do you think this will be the case when o3 models are 10x better and 100x cheaper? There will be a turning point but it’s not happened yet.

Yet we're what? 5 years into "AI will replace programmers in 6 months"? 10 years into "we'll have self driving cars next year" We're 10 years into "it's just completely obvious that within 5 years deep learning is going to replace radiologists" Moravec's paradox strikes again and again. But this time it's different and it's completely obvious now, right?

Over ten years for the we'll have self driving car spiel

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#722

Post by johnnyanmac »

nxm wrote: post #689
pydry wrote: post #661

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump didnt kick off the layoffs. It was the war with Russia that drove the fed to raise interest rates in 2022 - a measure that was intended to curb inflation triggered by spikes in the prices of economic inputs (gas, oil, fertilizer, etc.). The tech layoffs started later that year. Widespread job cuts are an intended effect of raising interest rates - more unemployed = less spending = keeps a lid on inflation. AI i…

2 trillion in unnecessary Covid related spending when Covid impact was winding down was the key reason for inflation. "$2000 checks!" was the campaign slogan

We're blaming the 1000 dollar stimulus checks to the people and not the massive PPP loans that the government never bothered to collect on? It's amazing how well billionaires trained us to fight amongst one another as they ransack in broad daylight.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#723

Post by xpe »

K0balt wrote: post #713

The “bloodbath” will be slow but is quite likely to be significant. AI / GP robotic labor will not penetrate the market so much in existing companies, which will have huge inertial buffers, but more in new companies that arise in specific segments where the technology proves most useful. The layoffs will come not as companies replace workers with AI, but as AI companies displace non-AI companies in the market, follow…

I find this plausible. Is the data starting to show this?

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#724

Post by pydry »

bojan wrote: post #691
pydry wrote: post #661

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump didnt kick off the layoffs. It was the war with Russia that drove the fed to raise interest rates in 2022 - a measure that was intended to curb inflation triggered by spikes in the prices of economic inputs (gas, oil, fertilizer, etc.). The tech layoffs started later that year. Widespread job cuts are an intended effect of raising interest rates - more unemployed = less spending = keeps a lid on inflation. AI i…

"War with Russia" sounds like someone willingly started that war, and Russia was the target. Of course, nothing is further from the truth. "Russian invasion of Ukraine" is what should be written there.

Your demands of an absolute committment to maintaining the domestic establishment's war narrative while making a technical point have been noted. Slava Ukraini.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#725

Post by johnnyanmac »

digitcatphd wrote: post #474
simonsarris wrote: post #465

I think the real white collar bloodbath is that the end of ZIRP was the end of infinite software job postings, and the start of layoffs. I think its easy to now point to AI, but it seems like a canard for the huge thing that already happened. just look at this: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JmOr In terms of magnitude the effect of this is just enormous and still being felt, and never recovered to pre-2020 lev…

As of now yes. But we are still in day 0.1 of GenAI. Do you think this will be the case when o3 models are 10x better and 100x cheaper? There will be a turning point but it’s not happened yet.

There's a lot of "when" people are betting on, and not a lot of action to back it. If "when" is 20 years, then I still got plenty career ahead of me before I need to worry about that.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#726

Post by [deleted] »

bojan wrote: post #691
pydry wrote: post #661

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump didnt kick off the layoffs. It was the war with Russia that drove the fed to raise interest rates in 2022 - a measure that was intended to curb inflation triggered by spikes in the prices of economic inputs (gas, oil, fertilizer, etc.). The tech layoffs started later that year. Widespread job cuts are an intended effect of raising interest rates - more unemployed = less spending = keeps a lid on inflation. AI i…

"War with Russia" sounds like someone willingly started that war, and Russia was the target. Of course, nothing is further from the truth. "Russian invasion of Ukraine" is what should be written there.

[deleted]

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#727

Post by xorcist »

huntertwo wrote: post #714
xorcist wrote: post #700

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> because he simply thought he could run a lot leaner Because he suddenly had to pay interest on that gigantic loan he (and his business associates) took to buy Twitter. It may not be the only reason for everything that happened, but it sure is simple and has some very good explanatory powers.

Other companies have different reasons to cut costs, but the incentive is still there.

Stocks are valued against the risk free interest, or so the saying goes.

Doubling interest rate from .1% to .2% does a lot for your DCF models, and in this case we went from zero (or in some cases negative) to several percentage units. Of course stock prices tanked. That's what any schoolbook will tell you, and that's what any investor will expect.

Companies thus have to start turning dials and adjust parameters to make number go up again.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#728

Post by xpe »

ChrisMarshallNY wrote: post #226
CKMo wrote: post #185

There's definitely a big problem with entry-level jobs being replaced by AI. Why hire an intern or a recent college-grad when they lack both the expertise and experience to do what an AI could probably do? Sure, the AI might require handholding and prompting too, but the AI is either cheaper or actually "smarter" than the young person. In many cases, it's both. I work with some people who I believe have the capacity…

This is where the horrific disloyalty of both companies and employees, comes to bite us in the ass. The whole idea of interns, is as training positions. They are supposed to be a net negative. The idea is that they will either remain at the company, after their internship, or move to another company, taking the priorities of their trainers, with them. But nowadays, with corporate HR, actively doing everything they ca…

I personally care a lot about people, but if I was running a publicly traded for-profit, I would have a lot of constraints about how to care for them. (A good place to start, by the way, is not bullshitting people about the financial realities.)

Employees are lucky when incentives align and employers treat them well. This cannot be expected or assumed.

A lot of people want a different kind of world. If we want it, we’re gonna have to build it. Think about what you can do. Have you considered running for office?

I don’t think it is helpful for people to play into the victim narrative. It is better to support each other and organize.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#729

Post by HarHarVeryFunny »

tim333 wrote: post #647
godelski wrote: post #588

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yet we're what? 5 years into "AI will replace programmers in 6 months"? 10 years into "we'll have self driving cars next year" We're 10 years into "it's just completely obvious that within 5 years deep learning is going to replace radiologists" Moravec's paradox strikes again and again. But this time it's different and it's completely obvious now, right?

Four years into people mocking "we'll have self driving cars next year" while they are on the street daily driving around SF.

Yes, but ...

The argument that self-driving cars should be allowed on public roads as long as they are statistically as safe as human drivers (on average) seems valid, but of course none of these cars have AGI... they perform well in the anticipated simulator conditions in which they were trained (as long as they have the necessary sensors, e.g. Waymo's lidar, to read the environment in reliable fashion), but will not perform well in emergency/unanticipated conditions they were not trained on. Even outside of emergencies, Waymos still sometimes need to "phone home" for remote assistance in knowing what to do.

So, yes, they are out there, perhaps as safe on average as a human (I'd be interested to see a breakdown of the stats), but I'd not personally be comfortable riding in one since I'm not senile, drunk, teenager, hothead, distracted (using phone while driving), etc - not part of the class that are dragging the human safety stats down. I'd also not trust a Tesla where penny pinching, or just arrogant stupidity, has resulted in a sensor-poor design liable to failure modes like running into parked trucks.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#730

Post by horns4lyfe »

godelski wrote: post #674
tim333 wrote: post #647

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Four years into people mocking "we'll have self driving cars next year" while they are on the street daily driving around SF.

I'm quoting Elon. I don't care about SF. I care about what I can but as a typical American. Not as an enthusiast in one of the most technologically advanced cities on the planet

They’re in other cities too…
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