So honest question: A bunch of people who currently own stock are deciding they'd rather have cash instead -- that much is obvious. But what exactly are they doing with the cash? Don't want to hold onto it, everyone says devaluation and inflation is coming. Bitcoin and gold are kinda flat. I expected them to shoot up as uncertainty hedges. What gives?
A lot of money is moving into treasuries, which is causing the 10 yr yield to quickly drop below 4%. https://www.barrons.com/articles/10-year-treasury-yield-junk...
Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout
721–730 of 777 posts
Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout
#722Earlier quoted context omitted.
The plan is crystal clear: 1. When equities crash, market liquidity floods the bond market causing yields to drop 2. Refinance debt at these lower rates massively reducing interest burden 3. Cut government spending to cause rates to drop further 4. Reduced rates with a balanced budget results in non-inflationary borrowing and an economic upswing Along the way, eliminate taxes for those earning below $150k. If all of…
> This plan has been made clear by multiple people from within the administration Do you have sources? (I also subscribe to the "genuine chaos" theory, but your comment makes sense)
https://www.foxnews.com/person/r/tanvi-ratna
It’s weird that Congress, the body constitutionally responsible for tariffs and their results, acts like they don’t know about it.
Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout
#723Earlier quoted context omitted.
The vote didn’t implement anything. Britain didn’t actually leave the EU until 2020. Brexit is as of much concern in Britain, still, as Trump is - because it underlies their entire shaken economy. You think some tariffs are bad? Ok now what if Trump simultaneously tore up every trade agreement ? And cancelled the visas of every European citizen in the country, who happened to make up 10% of the medical sector?
Alright take 2020 then: year started $1.32/£, ended at 1.37. The world was shaken by SARS-nCoV-2019, but I do not remember us feeling particularly extra shaken by Brexit crisis. That is not really relevant anyway, the up-thread suggestion was that there was some current ongoing crisis more significant than anything happening in the US. That user didn't even mention Brexit, but if that is what they meant, no, I assure…
How is this related to brexit? Well, it's mentioned several times in that page, but here: > Brexit has permanently diminished trade efficiency in the UK...weakening the UK’s international competitiveness.....intensified the UK’s longstanding productivity issues...imposed lasting structural constraints on productivity ...Brexit’s negative impact on productivity is enduring and structural. Additionally, Brexit has produced effects akin to a negative supply-side shock...An analysis conducted by NIESR colleagues, published in November 2023, suggested that UK business investment could have been about 12.4 per cent higher in 2023 if Brexit did not happen.
https://niesr.ac.uk/blog/five-years-economic-impact-brexit
Funnily enough, one thing that gets called out a lot is the rising wealth inequality that allows the shrinking group of well-off types to be completely ignorant of the worsening conditions at the bottom. You must be doing ok for yourself - but I am genuinely curious what kind of news sources you follow that you are not aware of the very serious levels of poverty and fear rising around the country, and the economic troubles underlying them.
Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout
#724Don’t worry. President Trump knows what he’s doing. If anything, this is a perfect time to invest before the markets inevitably recover.
So your theory is that there’s an amazing master plan, but only insane people on Twitter (and notably, not, say, _Wall Street_, or any economists) are smart enough to see its ineffable wisdom?
Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout
#725Earlier quoted context omitted.
Devil’s advocate: If you (the US) massively subsidize the world order through your financial markets, military defense, and foreign aid, it’s only fair that you get to take advantage of your position. Historically, the US has done this at the expense of its working class. Now there is a populist feeling that we are owed a long due “payback” for our generosity. The Bernie/AOC left believe the payback is owed by our el…
> freeloaders that have benefited from our technology, military defense, and foreign aid while simultaneously being net exporters to the US. I'm not trying to jump on you for having captured it, but the problem is that this is wholly nonsensical - the repayment for benefiting from our technology and military defense IS the net exporting to the US (via holding our currency). That "logic" is still based on having one f…
Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout
#726Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yup. Sadly, discussion of Brexit on HN is trash tier. Almost every claim about it you'll find here is completely wrong. Not in the sense of differing values or priorities, but in a "this is totally made up" kind of way. It's really concerning that so many people's understanding of the UK and Europe have suffered such a huge rupture with reality. The map is not the territory! Leaving the EU had no effect on the Britis…
Can you provide some citations / documentation of your claims about "no effect"? As a non-EU / non-UK reader I went searching for more detailed analysis after reading your post. The first detailed analysis I found was the UK Office for Budget Responsibility's Brexit Analysis. [1] The OBR's analysis suggests outcomes like the following (all quoted from that assessment) that seem to suggest some degree of negative econ…
That link is neither analysis nor reporting on outcomes. That's more predictions. This is the exact problem I'm talking about!
To analyze outcomes you must look at the actual data. There's a report that does so here but you can look up the raw data too if you prefer:
https://iea.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Perspectives_5...
From the summary:
"Contrary to initial concerns, Brexit has not had a major detrimental effect on UK–EU trade.
● Trade data doesn’t support the Office for Budget Responsibility’s claims that Brexit has caused significant negative impacts on the UK economy.
● Data from 2019 to 2022 indicates that the trade in both goods and services between the UK and EU hasn’t shown a discernible Brexit effect."
You can look up more recent numbers but the story hasn't changed.
I'd really like to understand the psychology of this phenomenon better. I don't mean this as any personal criticism because it's good that you're asking, but the fact that every time I bring this prediction/reality conflation up I get a rebuttal with more predictions in it is fascinating.
Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout
#727Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes, abd this appreciates USD, in turn makes production costs in US high, so the rest of the world doesn't buy what US produces. It is by itself sustainable though as US doesn't only export produced goods but tech etc which the world wants. A valuable dollar funds this tech, in a sense whole world funds the US trch sector.
Not only “in a sense,” but also directly — many of the parent or grandparent LPs to US venture firms are foreign wealth funds, and US tech companies are (by way of our capital markets) held as an investment by many foreign nations (e.g. Norway’s sovereign wealth funds). So we enrich foreign nations through our technology companies and capital markets. This is to the detriment of our domestic laborers, but it’s a grea…
These tariffs wouldn't hit these privileged people though, both in US and abroad, as they are planned and implemented by the same people. It will hit the lower classes, mostly the middle class.
Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout
#728Earlier quoted context omitted.
> And let's be clear — the US did not "lose a war" in Afghanistan or Iraq. Yes, we had failed pseudo-occupations. That is not the same as losing a war. You do not wage war for the sake of war, war is a tool for achieving political goals. What you're saying is that the U.S. won battles in these wars, but ultimately lost because they failed to achieve their political objectives — which were the very reasons the wars we…
What were America's political objectives in those wars? There are stated and unstated objectives. We don't really know if they were achieved or not. Maybe Iraq was a Haliburton enrichment play... That's still going on [0]! But you're not really right here. In both cases, American forces dismantled the initial enemy: the Taliban regime fell in 2001, and Saddam Hussein’s government collapsed in 2003. Combat superiority…
The development of nukes greatly reduced the possibilities of war between major nation states, and in the conflicts with minor states, nukes are not under consideration for use. Russia has never actually done any move with their nuclear weapon regiments to indicate using them, even though they are actively locked in a dumb war they underestimating that is costing hundreds of thousands of Russian lives. America kicked the Taliban out of power but could not keep the Taliban out of power, whether you left immediately or after 20 years. Your combat superiority doesn't mean you can defeat foreign militancies. Time and time again you have not defeated them. That is the reality. Fantasizing about unleashing the full combat superiority of the US military (nuking the entire landscape petulantly) to show that you are powerful is not a credible or coherent outcome... and lo it does not happen.
Finally, the US has waged total war since the end of WW2. Almost every substantial building in North Korea was destroyed in the Korean War. All of the dams and civilian infrastructure were entirely destroyed by US bombs. US bombers couldn't even find targets to indiscriminately bomb toward the end. And yet the US did not defeat the North Koreans.
(As a final note, DPRK started that war, not the US or its allies, so the primary objectives were inherently different and more defensive. Nonetheless, the use of total war did not achieve ultimate the victory it was aimed at.)
Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout
#729So honest question: A bunch of people who currently own stock are deciding they'd rather have cash instead -- that much is obvious. But what exactly are they doing with the cash? Don't want to hold onto it, everyone says devaluation and inflation is coming. Bitcoin and gold are kinda flat. I expected them to shoot up as uncertainty hedges. What gives?
Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout
#730Earlier quoted context omitted.
Can you provide some citations / documentation of your claims about "no effect"? As a non-EU / non-UK reader I went searching for more detailed analysis after reading your post. The first detailed analysis I found was the UK Office for Budget Responsibility's Brexit Analysis. [1] The OBR's analysis suggests outcomes like the following (all quoted from that assessment) that seem to suggest some degree of negative econ…
With respect, argh! Lol. That link is neither analysis nor reporting on outcomes. That's more predictions. This is the exact problem I'm talking about! To analyze outcomes you must look at the actual data. There's a report that does so here but you can look up the raw data too if you prefer: https://iea.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Perspectives_5... From the summary: "Contrary to initial concerns, Brexit has not…
● The analysis you link to is exactly the same sort of analysis the OBR provides -- i.e. a synthesis of current and past data and updated projections of what that means looking ahead
● The OBR report links to detailed "Economic and fiscal outlook" (EFO) data that includes the actual data the conclusions are based on. I haven't tried to look at the linked data for many of the analyses in the OBR report, but for those I have I find data in the cited EFO documents that seems to backup the statements made. For example, Box 2.6 of the March 2022 EFO report: https://obr.uk/box/the-latest-evidence-on-the-impact-of-brex...
● I gather that the "Institute of Economic Affairs" (IEA) is a long running right wing think-tank/advocacy group -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institute_of_Economic_Affairs
● The director of the IEA was apparently recorded by an undercover reporter telling funders that his organization was in "the Brexit influencing game" [1]. Why should I thus trust that the IEA isn't trying to spin Brexit outcomes to their funders advantage? This applies to the government too of course, but many of those OBR/EFO reports seem to have been prepared when the Conservatives were in power.
[1] https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/29/rightwing-t...