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US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

bbc.com

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Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#721

Post by electriclove »

roxolotl wrote: post #479

Aside from everything else one thing what strikes me as particularly insane is how it’s not even defensible as a protective measure. My favorite everyday olive oil comes from Tunisia. They now have a 38% tariff on them. There are no out of work olive farmers in the US. The orange man wanted tariffs, the orange man is going to get tariffs. Now we have to hope the American people aren’t so dumb as to still be convinced…

There are small olive oil producers in the US. Do they see this as a good thing?

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#722

Post by alabastervlog »

tim333 wrote: post #680
TaurenHunter wrote: post #599

I don't see anyone mentioning that the United States needs to manage its massive national debt, currently in the trillions, by issuing Treasury securities. These securities mature at varying intervals and require continuous "rolling" or refinancing to pay off old debt with new borrowing. Significant rollovers are expected from April through September 2025, with additional short-term maturities due by June. Higher int…

>The country is at risk of a debt spiral. The US owes US dollars and can also issue US dollars. There are complications but it's not like you run up a credit card and can't pay.

Well the good news is that there are multiple plausible paths forward.

The bad news is that they're all terrible.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#723

Post by horsawlarway »

ccorcos wrote: post #686
lumb63 wrote: post #625

Everyone is quick to deride this move as stupid. I don’t disagree that there are downsides to the approach, but there is a set of very real national problems that this might address. For instance, globalization and offshoring of production has made goods cheaper for consumers, but what about the former domestic producers who could not compete, and do not have the skills or capital to find a new job which pays as well…

I really want to read a good response to this comment. I have the same questions, and I’ll add one more thought. Lots of people talk about how the US should be more like Europe. People say the average European has a better quality of life, etc. Well, Europe has tariffs…

So does the US??? Ex - we've been placing tariffs on solar/ev parts for many years now to drive investment in those industries (And this is hardly the only place we've done this).

Targeted tariffs to protect and strengthen specific industries are fine - especially if done slowly and while supporting those industries internally to make sure that they aren't disrupted, and that they can actually capitalize on the space provided by a tariff.

---

This policy is not fucking that. It's just a backdoor tax on everyone, with zero planning and support internally to bring those industries back.

Simple terms for your simple comment:

A morbidly obese guy slowly exercising is great.

A morbidly obese guy getting dropped into a marathon with no prep is a recipe for a heart attack.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#724

Post by scotty79 »

lumb63 wrote: post #625

Everyone is quick to deride this move as stupid. I don’t disagree that there are downsides to the approach, but there is a set of very real national problems that this might address. For instance, globalization and offshoring of production has made goods cheaper for consumers, but what about the former domestic producers who could not compete, and do not have the skills or capital to find a new job which pays as well…

> what about the former domestic producers who could not compete,

Tariffs won't make them any better at their jobs. So the American customer can expect higher prices and lower quality of products and services.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#725

Post by throwway120385 »

IMTDb wrote: post #704
roxolotl wrote: post #479

Aside from everything else one thing what strikes me as particularly insane is how it’s not even defensible as a protective measure. My favorite everyday olive oil comes from Tunisia. They now have a 38% tariff on them. There are no out of work olive farmers in the US. The orange man wanted tariffs, the orange man is going to get tariffs. Now we have to hope the American people aren’t so dumb as to still be convinced…

The orange man is saying: "Looks like you are sending a lot of $$$ to those olive oil farmers in Tunisia. With my tariffs you now have two choices at your disposal: either you keep buying their Olive oil but then you are going to have to give me $$$ as well to pay for our national debt. You are going to buy less of it; and help your country in the process. Alternatively, you can decide that maybe you don't need olive…

The whole "decide that maybe you don't need olive oil that much" thing is what's going to crush the economy in the US. The problem is that demand does not shift to alternative supplies elastically. It takes years and sometimes decades to build an alternate supply chain for some industries. So what you're saying is that an entire generation of children in the US are going to have to grow up materially worse off than their parents and grandparents. And that's assuming that a bunch of businesses magically start overnight to fill the enormous gaps caused by a lack of access to international supply chains. If you look at other countries such as in South America or for example Italy where there are huge protective tariffs, the industries you expected to magically appear didn't. Instead people just have less and work less.

So your dichotomy applies, but it's not some magical ratchet out of globalization unless there's a corresponding push on the federal or state level to build competitive domestic industries to replace the international supply chains we've been cut off from.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#726

Post by svara »

TaurenHunter wrote: post #599

I don't see anyone mentioning that the United States needs to manage its massive national debt, currently in the trillions, by issuing Treasury securities. These securities mature at varying intervals and require continuous "rolling" or refinancing to pay off old debt with new borrowing. Significant rollovers are expected from April through September 2025, with additional short-term maturities due by June. Higher int…

The trade deficit is balanced by USD flows, which are ultimately reinvested with leverage into American capital markets.

In many ways the US trade deficit combined with the USD reserve currency status is thus what enables the high budget deficit in the first place.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#727

Post by greybox »

lumb63 wrote: post #625

Everyone is quick to deride this move as stupid. I don’t disagree that there are downsides to the approach, but there is a set of very real national problems that this might address. For instance, globalization and offshoring of production has made goods cheaper for consumers, but what about the former domestic producers who could not compete, and do not have the skills or capital to find a new job which pays as well…

One unintended benefit of this move might be reducing greenhouse gas emissions from global shipping ... if US consumers are consuming more US made products, the supply chain for those projects will have gotten significantly shorter in nautical miles.

I'm hesitant credit President Trump with this too soon though, after all, his motto is "drill drill drill", but It's going to be interesting to see what happens.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#728

Post by stevenwoo »

rawgabbit wrote: post #660
lumb63 wrote: post #625

Everyone is quick to deride this move as stupid. I don’t disagree that there are downsides to the approach, but there is a set of very real national problems that this might address. For instance, globalization and offshoring of production has made goods cheaper for consumers, but what about the former domestic producers who could not compete, and do not have the skills or capital to find a new job which pays as well…

I agree with the goal. I disagree with the execution. First, from the outside looking in, it appears these tariffs were implemented in an adhoc basis which disrupt supply chains potentially bankrupting companies and result in more layoffs in the short term. Second, there should be a carve-out on tariff policy to respond to national security interests. e.g., if and when the US wants Ukraine to rebuild its fledgling ex…

The Trump administration set the Russia tariff to zero, and we do still import stuff from Russia in spite of all the sanctions and set the blanket ten percent rate on Ukraine as you write. Maybe this is simply the current administration's national security interest.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#729

Post by dfilppi »

iteratethis wrote: post #75

This won't bring home manufacturing but let's say that it will... The US doesn't have the people to do the actual manufacturing. I saw a video recently explaining how sectors like the military, construction and the automotive industry each have 100K+ positions that they are unable to fill. A return to manufacturing adds to that shortage. Apparently there's some 7 million young men of working age that are...missing in…

[dead]

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#730

Post by jayd16 »

lumb63 wrote: post #625

Everyone is quick to deride this move as stupid. I don’t disagree that there are downsides to the approach, but there is a set of very real national problems that this might address. For instance, globalization and offshoring of production has made goods cheaper for consumers, but what about the former domestic producers who could not compete, and do not have the skills or capital to find a new job which pays as well…

If it's fundamentally a jobs program, you can be a lot smarter about it than tariffs.

If companies couldn't compete before, they're now further disincentivized to compete, leaving the rest of us worse off and uncompetitive with the rest of the world.

Tariffs are just bad policy.

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