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Priced out of home ownership

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Re: Priced out of home ownership

#721

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Asian countries have a lot more people and build a lot more housing.

And yet housing prices in much of Asia is still insane. The only market that is sane is sort of Japan with a falling population and an aversion to property speculation due to getting burned on their last property bubble. Chinese housing market is completely messed up, with turn over almost halted since the government won’t let prices fall no matter what, while they have overbuilt like crazy.

The difference is that China had a housing bubble. After it popped, housing prices started plummeting. In the US, housing is just expensive. Given the current supply and demand, there isn't a good reason why the price should be lower.

Re: Priced out of home ownership

#722

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anecdotally, all of my friends renting have had their rents continually raised with no breaks. Perhaps there is a wider trend, but if so, their landlords do not seem aware of it.

Part of that is also a fact that renters face the pressure that real estate firms now use big data to manage the rent accross a set of units. They know people will keep paying to avoid the skids so they can keep both rents high, and vacant houses because the over under makes them money. If you had the state / city charge rent to owners on vacant property you'd see rents fall through the floor as realestate companies…

There is actually currently a Seattle class action lawsuit on renting because a majority of the corporate landlords use the same big data company to set rents, and the big data company says you must use their rates (and so do the landlords instructing their property managers). It turns out you may not be able to launder price fixing using an algorithm.

Re: Priced out of home ownership

#723
post #274

People intuitively jump to the conclusion that the problem is caused by a lack of building. While more building would help, a lack of it isn't the main cause of this problem. Ask yourself, do Canada, Australia, New Zealand, the US, Britain, Ireland, etc, all have the same inability to build or is there maybe some other common cause? In my view this is symptomatic of a more fundamental issue - global asset price infla…

I think it is a question about the area of central locations grows much slower than the amount of people who wants to live in a central location.

Dubai is expanding like there is no tomorrow, and the price of down town and marina just keeps increasing, regardless of how many new high rise areas the emirate undertakes.

China has hundreds of literally empty cities, yet people are being priced out of living in Beijing.

The question is not about a lack of new buildings, or under utilization of current buildings but simply you cannot built _dense_ enough to follow demand.

Re: Priced out of home ownership

#724
post #274

People intuitively jump to the conclusion that the problem is caused by a lack of building. While more building would help, a lack of it isn't the main cause of this problem. Ask yourself, do Canada, Australia, New Zealand, the US, Britain, Ireland, etc, all have the same inability to build or is there maybe some other common cause? In my view this is symptomatic of a more fundamental issue - global asset price infla…

> do Canada, Australia, New Zealand, the US, Britain, Ireland, etc, all have the same inability to build …? Sort of? See eg https://www.ft.com/content/dca3f034-bfe8-4f21-bcdc-2b274053f... for some graphs that show Europe vs anglophone countries in an obvious way. Obviously there are lots of differences between the countries, eg the specifics of their planning systems and economies. The US is different because of the…

> if interest rates being high was making housing unaffordable, one would expect prices to be down.

I think you have to be careful with the definition of "unaffordable".

Housing, at this moment, is unaffordable in the sense that the cost of housing squeezes many people's discretionary budget, savings, and even sometimes the budget for necessities. It is not unaffordable in the sense that (most) people do have enough money that they can pay for it, even though paying for it might cause them hardship elsewhere.

Housing is an inelastic good - particularly for demographics who have limited access to transportation and therefore need to live very close to where the jobs are. The price increases until it consumes all the money available to pay for it.

Re: Priced out of home ownership

#725

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The OECD link you’ve provided shows the complete opposite of your point. The UK, Ireland, Canada, and New Zealand are at the bottom of % vacant dwellings indicating the opposite of underutilization.

Iirc, 20% of all bedrooms in UK are spare bedrooms in houses that are too big for their owners. This is indeed underutilization.

If you're talking about the study that everyone was talking about last week, that definition of "spare bedroom" includes a family of four with three bedrooms who gives each child their own bedroom when they could just have them sleep in the same room.

Re: Priced out of home ownership

#726
post #274

People intuitively jump to the conclusion that the problem is caused by a lack of building. While more building would help, a lack of it isn't the main cause of this problem. Ask yourself, do Canada, Australia, New Zealand, the US, Britain, Ireland, etc, all have the same inability to build or is there maybe some other common cause? In my view this is symptomatic of a more fundamental issue - global asset price infla…

Under utilization can be measured as a factor of the vacancy rate; which influences both home pricing and rental pricing. Here in Canada, the desirable places to live all have relatively low vacancy rates for residential housing, and have for quite some time. Ie, it's rare to see cities with vacancy rates for apartments exceeding 3%, let alone a healthy 5%.[0] The CMHC estimates that by 2030 we will need 3.5M additio…

Why is the vacancy rate so low in desirable neighborhoods?

Is it that there isn’t enough housing period, in the entire country. Or is it is people and investments abandoning rural areas in favor of a handful of city neighborhoods?

I’m also curious if those vacancy rates can be / have incentive to be gamed by the homeowners, or otherwise don’t paint a very accurate picture. I lived in a wealthy part of NYC for a while, and my apartment faced a courtyard on the interior of the block. As a result, I could see into the windows of 100s of apartments of 3 adjacent buildings. Only maybe like 5 out of 100s of apartments consistently had someone living in them. This reflects my feeling on the street: the streets were empty, especially given the relative density of the apartment buildings.

I know this is anecdotal evidence, but everyone I know that lives in NYC has the same observation.

I wish scientists and experts would take these concerns seriously and research by this gap in perception and the reported vacancy rate is so different.

Re: Priced out of home ownership

#727

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This comment will not go over well on HN but I am in full agreement. I am actually extremely disappointed as I thought tech would enable a more dispersed society. Instead we received the opposite.

Infotech will let you work anywhere, but you still need fixed infrastructure that is only possible to efficiently provide in a centralized way. Even suburbs are a net economic drain given their infrastructure costs, never mind dispersed rural living.

There's nothing efficient about big cities. Hours of commuting by millions of people every day. Tons of excess and waste. You become disconnected from the source of your food which has to be shipped in.

Technology is a lot more than InfoTech. It includes core engineering and infrastructure.

Re: Priced out of home ownership

#728

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Housing affordability is qualitatively different between Europe and the US. When a European city is expensive, it's usually only the central part that's expensive. Prices drop steeply as you get to the suburbs and satellite towns. In the US, suburbs and satellite towns are more likely to remain expensive, as long as you are within a semi-reasonable commuting distance. I guess that's because the US city is more likely…

I think you are close but slightly off. EU has historically better public transit and lower sprawl allowing more price points of housing while still a "reasonable" commute. US cities are vastly larger by land size, because America is larger allowing it, added with fewer public transit options. Look at Houston, massive sprawl and some of the cheapest housing in the country.

Yet it’s one of the worst at providing affordable housing per a study conducted by Rice University:

https://kinder.rice.edu/urbanedge/report-houston-second-wors...

Re: Priced out of home ownership

#729
post #669
post #274

People intuitively jump to the conclusion that the problem is caused by a lack of building. While more building would help, a lack of it isn't the main cause of this problem. Ask yourself, do Canada, Australia, New Zealand, the US, Britain, Ireland, etc, all have the same inability to build or is there maybe some other common cause? In my view this is symptomatic of a more fundamental issue - global asset price infla…

> Ask yourself, do Canada, Australia, New Zealand, the US, Britain, Ireland, etc, all have the same inability to build or is there maybe some other common cause? In the UK, we have an issue with immigration that nobody wants to speak about. The birth rate in the UK is 1.49 in 2022 [1], meaning that housing demand should be going down. We build houses to last, and yet there is a massive shortage - why? In 2023 the ONS…

UK has massively high house prices - at least in "desirable" areas, and some not so desirable ones where it's possible to commute to work in a desirable area.

That doesn't necessarily reflect a shortage, it also reflects availability of money - and therefore the market bearing higher prices. It also reflects the unevenness of the UK economy: the expensive and unaffordable housing is mostly in and around London (where ~all the economic activity is), and in the most scenic of rural areas which is retirees, second-home owners and AirBnB investors. There's plenty of the UK which has affordable housing, but it's too far from anywhere with decent jobs.

The boom in house prices began when it became the norm for educated women to have lifelong progessional careers. All of a sudden there was a huge amount more discretionary income in the educated class. If you consider that, circa 1970, perhaps 20-30% of one male earner's income went on housing and the rest on life's essentials, all of a sudden the potential amount of cash to spend on housing goes from 30% of one income to 130%, a more than 4x increase. It took a while to filter through, sure, but in the end, it has - to the point where most families are now obligated to have two full-time earners.

Housing is a positional good (think about an auction where demand of the most desirable items will always exceed supply), the prices bear almost no relation to rational economic utility and every relation to how much cost people are able to bear. Which is one reason they're so responsive to interest rates i.e. debt affordability.

A 1.49 birth rate and 685k net migration isn't a desirable situation for any country, but the other issue here is the health and productivity of our own population, we're using migrants to prop it up and provide much of the labour needed by the NHS, childcare and elderly care. Our government is massively anti-immigration, and yet immigration remains high, the country can't and won't go cold-turkey on that: it's not practical to do so without further increasing the retirement age, cutting pensions and increasing "sin taxes" to keep a greater proportion of the population healthy enough to work til 70. And that'd be even less popular, politically, than mass immigration.

The reforms the UK needs are to get the economy functioning better in the regions, and to make it much easier to build higher density housing close to where the jobs are. The current system where they can't build apartment blocks on train-station car parks because a bunch of pensioners complain that it spoils their view is massively counterproductive.

Re: Priced out of home ownership

#730
post #274

People intuitively jump to the conclusion that the problem is caused by a lack of building. While more building would help, a lack of it isn't the main cause of this problem. Ask yourself, do Canada, Australia, New Zealand, the US, Britain, Ireland, etc, all have the same inability to build or is there maybe some other common cause? In my view this is symptomatic of a more fundamental issue - global asset price infla…

Absolutely agree. Everyone else that replied seems to disagree probably because they are landlords. Which is fairly high in HN. Oh I'M not the problem it's someone / something else. The reason "not building" is not the issue, is because even brand new homes are being scooped up in investments. Raise property taxes for all non-occupied, airbnbs, and fuck even rentals, and while it might cause rentals to temporarily go…

First two make sense ... rentals is really complex. How long are you willing to hurt those with the least amount of money.

Maybe a home owners break, and a second weaker first rental/vacation home break would match the current approach (and dodge more of the individuals who'd kill the legislation for for your idea. Alternately, a discount for occupied properties.

I was initially thinking corporate owned rentals or anyone with more than 2 properties, but the above seems cleaner.

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