Earlier quoted context omitted.
> My phone is on my wrist currently (Apple watch), I left my iphone at home. To me your prediction would have been correct (for now). Your Apple Watch is still dependent on your iPhone. You're also unlikely to be browsing the web, watching YouTube, or browsing social media on your watch, and these have been the biggest factors for smartphone adoption by far - so I don't think such a prediction works. We can also see…
Again, you’re associating AR/VR with a specific implementation (headsets, glasses, etc), based on your experiences with existing technology. That’s a very short sighted way to think about the future. AR/VR is the future of human computer interface, as a paradigm, as a “reality 2.0”. Smartphones became widespread 15 years ago, and will be obsolete 15 years from now. We will still see an old lady in 2040 pulling out iP…
However, you are wildly overestimating how near brain-computer interfaces are if you think they will obsolete smartphones in 15 years.
My prediction then is this: screens on fixed devices (desktop, laptop, phone, tablet, probably other form factors) will remain the most common way of accessing the majority of our computer use for the next, say, 50 years. They will not be displaced by glasses-mounted displays, though "smart glasses" will become a more and more common secondary device in the coming decades, just like smartwatches. The only thing that will displace regular screens will be safe, high-bandwidth, high-fidelity brain-computer interfaces - which is where the 50 years timeline is coming from.
And I believe even 50 years is optimistic given the difficulty of making such a technology mass-market.