Live data from Hacker News

We're going to need a lot of solar panels

caseyhandmer.wordpress.com

721–730 of 842 posts

Re: We're going to need a lot of solar panels

#721

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I still don’t get why there would be *more* moisture on the uninsulated inner wall compared to before insulating 3 out of 4 walls.

Most people know that hot air rises. It's helpful to think of airflow in terms of energy (temperature is a measure of the average kinetic energy of air molecules). Hotter air has more energy and thus will naturally "flow" towards cooler areas with less energy until equilibrium is reached. In this example, the higher temperature air holds more moisture. That moisture will be carried along and dispersed towards the coo…

I do see your point, you believe the air near the uninsulated wall will have even more moisture because it’s now the only cold wall out of 4 walls. So all the moisture goes there instead of being split in 4.

But a wall will stop condensating water when reaching a certain degree of humidity. So I’m not entirely convinced one can simply divide the amount of humidity in the air by the amount of uninsulated walls (or sqm).

Re: We're going to need a lot of solar panels

#722
post #718

Isn't this what trees do already? And if trees don't do it "good enough", should we really replace the trees with technological mini-chemical-plants that will starve all of the CO2? I don't get it. Why do humans think their crazy ideas are better for nature, while at the same time it is obvious they are going to exterminate whole species when implemented.

Trees don’t like it when you try to use up their stored energy and go and die on you.

Re: We're going to need a lot of solar panels

#723

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Efficiency has almost doubled since 2008 but more importantly efficiency at non optimal angles has improved even more. Put together he's off by about an order of magnitude in the amount of land required. The other factor that is missed is that solar panels are proving to be surprisingly non exclusive in their land usage.

Efficiency may have doubled, but the book used a very optimistic 30% efficiency, which afaik is still quite a bit higher than even current rates.

The book used a very pessimistic 10% efficiency for panels installed in large scale solar farms:

https://www.withouthotair.com/c6/page_41.shtml

If a breakthrough of solar technology occurs and the cost of photovoltaics came down enough that we could deploy panels all over the countryside, what is the maximum conceivable production? Well, if we covered 5% of the UK with 10%-efficient panels, we’d have

10% × 100 W/m2 × 200 m2 per person ≈ 50 kWh/day/person.

I assumed only 10%-efficient panels, by the way, because I imagine that solar panels would be mass-produced on such a scale only if they were very cheap, and it’s the lower-efficiency panels that will get cheap first.

Utility scale panels today are commonly a bit over 20%.

Re: We're going to need a lot of solar panels

#724
post #718

Isn't this what trees do already? And if trees don't do it "good enough", should we really replace the trees with technological mini-chemical-plants that will starve all of the CO2? I don't get it. Why do humans think their crazy ideas are better for nature, while at the same time it is obvious they are going to exterminate whole species when implemented.

Not to mention that we've already made great headway into transforming plants and trees into a variety of stable fuel sources that can be used to heat and power our lives during the time periods where solar panels don't generate enough electricity.

Our time would be better spent investing in making these conversion processes more reliable and efficient. Alcohol from fermentation of sugars, methane from anaerobic digestion, syngas/biogas/woodgas from gasification of woody biomass, and charcoal from the remaining carbon. All of these are fuel sources available from plants that pull in CO2 naturally from the environment, completing a cycle of energy production that doesn't alter our current CO2 levels upwards. They can be done on waste biomass left over from current agricultural processes or plants used for landscaping needs (hedges, shade trees, etc.). In fact, if you store away the carbon left over after gasification as biochar you can lower CO2 levels over time.

Re: We're going to need a lot of solar panels

#725

could someone explain the benefit of storing energy as natural gas? once you burn it, doesn't it result in co2? doesn't that defeat the effort? also is natural gas really easier to pipe around than electricity? I know I'm missing the point of the article so looking for helpful guidance.

Do you want to burn new carbon that’s in the ground, or recycle what’s already in the air?

We have tremendous infrastructure already dedicated to using natural gas (cooking, heating, transport, industrial equipment) and it won’t be electrified overnight.

First get to carbon neutral, then worry about carbon negative.

Re: We're going to need a lot of solar panels

#726
post #236

The trouble with our current system is that the answer to environmental catastrophe is to make more stuff. And the entities that make the stuff have an incentive to pursue models that see them continue to make that stuff and sell it. Creating a solar panel that never needs to be replaced is a business failure. Selling the same number of electric cars next year, instead of more, is a business failure. Not consuming mo…

> The sooner we show some humility and realize that we’re the problem Why do people just love to hate on their own existence? How many extinction events have there been that just wiped out the vast majority of species far before humans even existed? If earth is to flourish, grow and continue it's trend of supporting ever more complex forms of life - it will be humans that can make that happen. In the absence of human…

I appreciate this all-too-rare take. It concerns me that it's so popular to be negative. I believe a lot more good can come about with a positive attitude -- honest and critical at times, yes, but at some point you just gotta put your boots on and get to work.

Re: We're going to need a lot of solar panels

#727
post #4

We're going to need a lot of solar panels and an efficient way to transport power from a very sunny place to another location where the loads are. For instance: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_DC_Intertie The pacific DC intertie right now often ends up being used to transport power from hydroelectric dams in WA/OR to California. But there's nothing to say that something couldn't function the other way if there…

>The technology now exists to theoretically cover many hundreds of square km of Libya in photovoltaics and take the electricty to Europe It really doesn't. I'm a huge fan of back-of-the-envelope maths, and this idea raises some very fun questions. How big would the power line be, if the UK (where I live) was powered entirely by solar panels in the African desert? The UK's average instantaneous power consumption is ar…

> How big would the power line be

The linked blog post explains that it doesn't have to be a power line. You could synthesize LNG and ferry that elsewhere (that is, assuming the techniques described do indeed scale, and you don't have salty water trouble, etc. etc. etc)

Re: We're going to need a lot of solar panels

#728
post #484
post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article we're commenting on is about a moderately efficient way to transport power from a very sunny place to another location where the loads are: you manufacture methane in the sunny place and then ship it to where the load is, either through a pipeline, through a liquefaction terminal, or after an additional process step such as hydroxylating it into methanol. This also provides long-term grid-scale energy sto…

> In a lot of cases, though, it might be cheaper just to build ten times as much solar panel capacity All these ideas about plastering the world with millions of tons of solar panels makes me worry about what happens in say 50 years from now. Recycling all of that stuff may prove to be pointless from economic perspective and we may end up with millions of tons of dead pannels in a small-country-sized landfill.

If you do the math, you'll see that your worries are misplaced. Because you already would have done it if you knew how, I've done it for you below.

I do think that plastering the world with solar panels would be a real problem, and the logic of living systems suggests that it's a problem we'll have to contend with at some point. There's nothing that inherently limits human energy usage to anything like current human energy usage, so if solar panels are cheap, eventually someone will want to cover the oceans and forests with them.

— ⁂ —

However, that will probably not become a problem for more than 50 years. Right now we're only talking about replacing current human energy usage, which is only about 18 terawatts, last I checked, including non-electrical energy. (See, e.g., https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_supply_and_consum...: 162494 terawatt hours in 02017 = 18.537 TW.) With cheap 16%-efficient solar panels and a nominal solar constant of 1000 W/m², that would nominally be about 120 000 km² of solar panels, half the size of Idaho.

But we have to take into account capacity factors, which range from 10% in extremely polar countries like Germany and the Netherlands, through 29% in California, to even higher in deserts. (I'd be very pleased to have some concrete, trustworthy figures on the capacity factors of real utility-scale PV plants in places like Abu Dhabi or Chile.) So we're talking about 400 000 to 1.2 million km², almost half the size of Kazakhstan. Once you set the panels apart so you can angle them toward the equator without them shadowing each other, we're talking about roughly the entire size of Kazakhstan. But presumably Kazakhstan itself is sunnier than that, so a better intuition pump would be the northernmost 20% of Siberia, the part where the permafrost is melting due to climate change, or all of Alaska. (Siberia is 13.1 million km².)

But I proposed building ten times as much solar panel capacity in cloudy places, not three times as much. And that's because, although the capacity of utility-scale PV farms in places like the Netherlands averages 10% year-round, it's only about 2% in the winter, because it gets cloudy. So, if we were talking about a worst case conservative limit in which the whole world is as bad for PV as the Netherlands, and also failed to store a summer harvest of tasty methane to burn in the winter, we need 6 million km² of solar panels, probably spread over 12 million km², the size of all of Siberia.

If 1 m² of solar panel modules weighs 40 kg (I'm too lazy to look this up right now but it's the right order of magnitude due to the glass and aluminum, even though the actual silicon cells are under 300 grams) we're talking about 240 billion tonnes of solar panels, not just a measly few million.

— ⁂ —

So, wait, isn't that a huge problem? Doesn't that end up with a country-sized landfill and plastering the world? At 2.4 g/cc and a typical 10 m landfill depth we're talking about 10000 km², which would be, yes, the size of a small country; Monaco is 2.02 km², Cyprus is 10452 km², and Kuwait is 17818 km².

But probably you'd dig the landfill deeper if you were building such a big one. Or pile it higher and just build an earth berm around it instead of digging. At 164 m deep it would be 606 km², the area of Chicago. Technically Chicago is still the size of a small country because there are about 15 countries smaller than Chicago but I think "small-country-sized" is a misleading description of Chicago. I think "less than half the size of Anson County, Georgia, population 22055" is a more illuminating description of 600 km² than "small-country-sized" or even "Chicago-sized". I hope this doesn't offend the inhabitants of the proud sovereign nation of Palau (land area 459 km²).

But this calculation is under the ridiculously pessimistic assumption that we have foolishly located all of the world's solar panels in places like Siberia, Patagonia, or Sweden, because everybody has moved there, and also that they aren't storing up summer methane for the winter. If we assume more optimistically that the solar panels are located, on average, somewhere like California (29% year-round average capacity factor!) and that the people are smart enough to store up methane for the winter, instead of 1.2 million km², it's 400,000 km². So at 200 m deep, 40 kg/m², and 2.4 g/cc, we're talking about 33 km² to bury the planet's 16 billion tonnes of solar panels (6.7 km³).

There are, technically, countries smaller than that: Tuvalu, Nauru, Monaco, and the Holy See. But there's also a pond larger than that in Kennebec County, Maine, called Great Pond.

Great Pond isn't deep enough for all the solar panels, though, because it isn't 200 meters deep. However, the reservoir of Nagarjuna Sagar Dam in Andhra Pradesh holds 8.8 km³ of water (312 TMC or thousand million cubic feet), one of many reservoirs and lakes around the world that are each individually large enough to dump this quantity of solar panels into.

Most of those 40 kg, however, consists of glass and aluminum, the most thoroughly recycled materials in the world, so I wouldn't worry about the landfill. Also, there are some 50-year-old solar panels already, and they mostly still work, just at reduced power output.

— ⁂ —

But what about "plastering the world"? Doesn't a million km² of solar panels amount to "plastering the world"? No, the world is 510 million km², so we're talking about plastering 0.2% or 0.1% of the world.

But cheap solar panels mean cheap energy, which means human energy consumption can expand dramatically. Historical societies that had high human development, like Classical Greece and Rome, only had it for a small upper class whose wealth was underpinned by the forced labor of slaves. Right now we use 2300 watts per person (18 TW ÷ 7.7 billion people) which is equivalent to about 23 "energy slaves" per person. The solar resource is 127500 terawatts, large enough that by plastering the world with solar panels we could have 1000 times that, with the equivalent labor of 23000 slaves at the disposal of each person. The temptation to do this, despite the attendant destruction of the biosphere and the alternative of space-based solar power, will be strong. But that's more than 50 years in the future.

— ⁂ —

Let's consider, as an example, just the Netherlands, and disregard the wind energy they've been famous for exploiting for centuries.

The Netherlands uses about 100 GW (900 TWh/year), of which about 120 TWh/year is electrical (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_the_Netherlands). It's 41865 km² with a 10% countrywide capacity factor for utility-scale solar, dipping to about 2% during the winter months; presumably this would get worse if you started having to build your solar farms in random places instead of the sunniest places in the country. Let's say, pessimistically, 6% and 1.5%. 41865 km² at the solar constant of 1000W/m² is 41.9 TW, about twice world marketed energy consumption. At this pessimistic 6% capacity factor 41865 km² of mainstream 21% efficient panels would produce 530 GW, 5 times the country's current energy consumption.

This means that by covering 20% of the country in solar panels you can supply its whole energy usage with 6%-capacity-factor 21%-efficient solar farms. At today's high €0.33/Wp prices the required 1700 GWp of solar panels would cost €570 billion, 28 weeks of the Netherlands' GDP of US$1055 trillion/year. Installation and balance of plant (inverters, etc.) would cost (guesing) another €700 billion. And then you need storage, which is another significant but smaller cost. These costs will almost certainly go down in coming years.

You'd have to store methane for the winter, though. Or use wind.

This 1700 GWp is 8100 km² and at 40 kg/m² would be 320 million tonnes of panels. At 2.4 g/cc this is 0.13 km³ or 1.3 km² of 100-meter-deep landfill. Hopefully you can imagine that 1.3 km² of landfill would not be a major catastrophe for the Netherlands.

— ⁂ —

Basically your concern is like a kid worrying that if his parents buy him a lollipop they won't be able to afford this month's rent. It's not completely disconnected from reality but it's way out of proportion.

Re: We're going to need a lot of solar panels

#729

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s known as agrivoltaics [1]. It works especially well with highly shade-tolerant crops like leafy vegetables, stone fruits, berries, etc., but also works with grazing or arable cultivation. There are various possible configurations of panels that still allow farm machinery to access the crop beneath, and the crop itself is protected from heat stress, wind, heavy rain, and hail. Shading reduces evaporative water lo…

Very interesting. I do wonder how robust these would be to wind storms/tornadoes/hurricanes (like we tend to get in the US).

Good question. A brief search suggests hail is the greatest common hazard to the panels. I guess they’re going to act like a sail in a hurricane or tornado.

Re: We're going to need a lot of solar panels

#730
post #529

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow that sounds too high. Maybe insulate only the parts you frequently use, perhaps?

No offense - but insulation doesn't really work like this. If you insulate only one part, you will get massive problems with moisture through heat transfer. With insulation of old houses, so much can go wrong and then the only solution _is_ tearing down the house and building a new one.

Several floors were mentioned. Perhaps insulating one of them completely is an option then?
Post reply on HN