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Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

reuters.com

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Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#721

Post by VoodooJuJu »

smoe wrote: post #691
VoodooJuJu wrote: post #668

What is the endgame here? Russia is outclassed by NATO both economically and militarily. If NATO intervenes economically, Russia will lose much. If NATO intervenes militarily, Russia will lose much (but at great cost to NATO). The risk of NATO intervention is high, right? Russia understood this before invading, right? So it seems Russia is accepting a high risk of loss. But it doesn't make sense that a nation as soph…

I think the risk of direct NATO military intervention is very low, due to Ukraine not being a member state. As the Nato secretary said, they will support Ukraine, but made it clear the security guarantees are only for allies. "I think also that we need to realize that Ukraine is a highly valued partner. We support them with military support, with political support, with the cyber defences, with equipment. Different A…

>I think the risk of direct NATO military intervention is very low

I agree the military intervention risk seems low, but what about economic intervention? Isn't this going to have some serious economic repercussions for Russia?

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#722

Post by jacquesm »

baybal2 wrote: post #704
BurningFrog wrote: post #670

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia has thousands of nuclear missiles. This makes them immune to NATO invasion.

NATO can easily deny Russia using first strike nuclear attack. Without centralised command issuing computerised targeting info, it will be for missile officers own initiative to launch them, fully knowing from what they learned in the military academy that an uncoordinated launch will likely be futile. USA missile defences in Arctic, and North Pacific can guarantee intercept a dozen uncoordinated launches, if what Ra…

> NATO can easily deny Russia using first strike nuclear attack.

This is very dangerous nonsense.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#723

Post by leto_ii »

VoodooJuJu wrote: post #694
BurningFrog wrote: post #670

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia has thousands of nuclear missiles. This makes them immune to NATO invasion.

I had this mind as I wrote up my post but didn't mention it because I didn't consider the nuclear option as a serious option. Or maybe I'm just optimistic/delusional. But how would the nuclear option play out? Here I am, a Russian oligarch. I ordered the Ukrainian invasion because I bet that NATO wouldn't intervene because of my nukes. But it turns out I was wrong and NATO is pushing back my invasion. So I fire some…

> Here I am, a Russian oligarch. I ordered the Ukrainian invasion because I bet that NATO wouldn't intervene because of my nukes

I think the mistake here is to assume that the invasion is dictated by economic interests (be they oligarch interests). I don't think what's happening is driven by oligarchs, but by other geopolitical ideas (insane as they are).

As far as I can see it there's no bet. Russia pretty much knows the US will not react, and the US has no interest to start WW3 over Ukraine.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#725

Post by Faelian2 »

ImprovedSilence wrote: post #55

Hang on to your butts, they're gonna come for all of Europe: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics

France and Germany having a firm anti-Atlanticist tradition, and China being a danger for Russia are ridiculous.

I don't believe for a second that this represent Putin's strategy in any meaningful way.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#726

Post by asveikau »

yonisto wrote: post #542
osynavets wrote: post #115

Kharkiv, 25 miles to Russia. Just want to say that we are strong, we are confident about our army and I hope that everything will be fine. I'm sorry that I share content like this on this platform, but that's my reality

I'm so sorry. But the truth is that you don't stand a chance. Russia will get what it wants (it got the support of China that will offset any sanctions the the West might impose) I really hope you will stay safe.

Putin is alienating a lot of ordinary citizens, though. Do you think Ukrainians will peacefully consent to be governed for years after this? There is precedent in history for this kind of outcome, but that wound would be there for a long time.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#727

Post by jacquesm »

JPLeRouzic wrote: post #702
BurningFrog wrote: post #670

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia has thousands of nuclear missiles. This makes them immune to NATO invasion.

It's an horrific idea, but what if Russia does not stop after invading Ukraine? What if they aim to "liberate" Moldavia, Bulgaria, Serbia and encircling Romania? After all, Putin told 2 days ago he wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/01/21/get-out-of-romania...

> It's an horrific idea, but what if Russia does not stop after invading Ukraine?

This is a very good question.

My guess is there will be a period of consolidation (one year, maybe two) and then the next target will be set, either Belarus will be pulled back in or Kaliningrad will be re-connected to the mothership. The fact that it isn't is a serious issue for Russia, they have to cross NATO controlled territory to get to one of their more important bases.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#728

Post by politician »

ericmay wrote: post #706
VoodooJuJu wrote: post #668

What is the endgame here? Russia is outclassed by NATO both economically and militarily. If NATO intervenes economically, Russia will lose much. If NATO intervenes militarily, Russia will lose much (but at great cost to NATO). The risk of NATO intervention is high, right? Russia understood this before invading, right? So it seems Russia is accepting a high risk of loss. But it doesn't make sense that a nation as soph…

Long story short, Putin's plan is, depending on how Ukraine goes, to further attack Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, maybe Finland (they'll join NATO by the end of the year if not sooner as will Sweden), maybe Poland , and push the United States and UK out of Europe. If Ukraine goes very well, this will be sooner. If Ukraine goes poorly but he still wins and installs a puppet government, it'll be on a longer time…

I disagree. These plays have been available since the establishment of the nuclear deterrent. The soft-peddling from the US and NATO is indicative of their respect for the deterrent. People calling for NATO to counterattack are delusional. NATO and Russia still benefit from minimizing shared borders, so I don't think Russia will annex Ukraine and instead will leave it demilitarized.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#729

Post by mleg »

Another Russian here. I don't agree and don't support this action. We anticipate long years if not decades of isolation, even more stagnating economy, even more authoritarian government. By all means it's a terrible thing. For both Russians and Ucrainians alike. But... The drama around it as portrayed in Western media is ridiculous. There won't be major loss of life nor any "war" in conventional sense. It would be no more war than it was in Crimea in 2014. I don't justify. It's a political disaster but not a humanitarian one.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#730

Post by ericmay »

scottLobster wrote: post #719
ericmay wrote: post #706

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Long story short, Putin's plan is, depending on how Ukraine goes, to further attack Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, maybe Finland (they'll join NATO by the end of the year if not sooner as will Sweden), maybe Poland , and push the United States and UK out of Europe. If Ukraine goes very well, this will be sooner. If Ukraine goes poorly but he still wins and installs a puppet government, it'll be on a longer time…

The Russian Army is not the powerhouse the Soviet Army once was, relative to NATO. If the Russians go after Estonia/Lithuania/Latvia/Poland/etc conventional NATO forces can stop said invasions, no need to launch nukes. Hell the German military might do some actual fighting for once if their Polish buffer state is threatened.

Of course, NATO's conventional forces can demolish Russia's conventional forces if they go toe to toe. But what do you do when once NATO war planes or a carrier strike group engage and shoot down Russian planes or bomb Russian tanks when Putin literally nukes an airbase with a small yield tactical nuclear weapon? Keep going at it? Try to stop? I mean that's the crux of the issue. Putin knows that he can't beat NATO toe to toe right? So why is he doing anything? It's because he thinks he can use nuclear weapons to get NATO to back down. IMO. Just taking these two eastern regions isn't enough, because he could have gotten those via diplomacy.

My take is basically he has gigantic ambitions, because otherwise everything he is doing makes no sense whatsoever and I can't help but think he's a rational actor.

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