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US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

bbc.co.uk

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Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#721

Post by hedora »

UncleOxidant wrote: post #349
hedora wrote: post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah. The US is apparently already at ~50% antibodies, not counting vaccination. So, there’s a floor on the upside of the vaccine: It did no more than halve deaths. We’re in the middle of a surge, and it looks like most of the remaining 50% will end up catching covid before being vaccinated, so the percentage saved by vaccination will continue to drop. The ideal strategy without hindsight was conventional wisdom: Pro…

> With the benefit of hindsight, a 3 month shutdown while hospitals got their acts together (combined with protecting the vulnerable) would have roughly quartered the remaining deaths, but at far lower cost than the full shutdown. Where was this "full shutdown" you speak of? Not anywhere in the US. In Wuhan, and some other Asian countries, sure. Didn't we kind of have the 3 month shutdown-lite you're referring to? Mi…

As for shutdown vs shutdown lite: No; the economy didn’t completely reopen in July. The recommendations from March 2020 were for more strict targeted shutdown protocols, but over a shorter duration (Strict reverse quarantines for nursing homes, but only for a few months for example.). The idea was to get less vulnerable groups to herd immunity faster. I’m saying a general, country wide shutdown for three months, concurrently with a strict targeted lockdown for about 5-6 months would have been more effective and cheaper (and, we’d have been done by last August, as the parent of my other post suggested.)

Source for 50%: Wall street journal. We were above 33% (based on random sampling, not confirmed cases) a few months ago.

This one from Feb predicted herd immunity a bit too early. They ran one with updated numbers last week, but I can’t find it:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-apri...

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#723

Post by foolmeonce »

jerf wrote: post #499
textman wrote: post #322

"The incidence of cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) varies between studies, but it is estimated to be between 2 and 5 per million per year. A recent study in the Netherlands with comprehensive ascertainment suggested a much higher incidence." https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/full/10.1161/STROKEAHA.116.0... So the six reported cases in 6.8 million vaccinations seems low. Glad I read about all this because I got the J&J…

"So the six reported cases in 6.8 million vaccinations seems low." No, because those 6 cases are something more like "1 per day" rather than "per year". Or maybe "per week". But either way, you need to multiply the "per year" base rate by a large number to get the base rate for "coincidentally happened immediately after a particular event", for some definition of "immediately".

It's reports within 3 weeks, so something like 18 per million per year.. The larger danger is any interaction with an automobile to get to the appointment.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#724

Post by rainyMammoth »

Nobody seem to discuss that this issue appears around 10 days after getting the vaccine. And I believe most of the doses have been given over the last 10 days. So we actually don't know yet the real incidence of this issue. It makes sense for the FDA to be cautious here, there are other vaccines which are fully available.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#725

Post by bilbo0s »

robrenaud wrote: post #703
t_sawyer wrote: post #607

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You think 10% of a towns population will die from COVID in a couple weeks? Has that percentage of people in any county in the USA actually died from COVID in over a year? Florida who has been pretty laissez-faire about COVID has 5,980 deaths in Miami-Dade County (their highest amount of deaths in a county). 2.717M population in 2019. 0.22% of their population.

He estimates an additional 10% (increased spread of covid infection due to change in vaccine policy) of .5% (death rate given covid infection) of a towns population will die from covid due to vaccine hesistancy.

Only there is no vaccine hesitancy. Only public health admins saving themselves headaches by just using moderna or Pfizer in the first place. Since using J&J would require them to use moderna or Pfizer anyway.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#726

Post by da_big_ghey »

js2 wrote: post #702

The risk of dying from a blood clot after receiving the J&J vaccine is six in 6,800,000 (6.8M). The world population is 7,900,000,000 (7.9B). If everyone on the planet got the J&J vaccine tomorrow, and if it is the cause of the clots, then 6,971 people would die from the vaccine. Yesterday, Covid19 killed 8,803 people (according to worldometers). We don't want anyone to die from vaccination, and we don't fully unders…

But you are having conflate for deaths from each of things. Rates in dying are not homogeneous in J&J vax versus corona. J&J vax maybe is received by many younglings who are not risking death so much from Corona for benefit of old. It is not yet being known for if J&J vax is having any greater risk for older people or younger people. So calculus is maybe not so simple. If I are healthy young person maybe it is not a beneficent risk for taking.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#727

Post by foobiekr »

jerf wrote: post #499
textman wrote: post #322

"The incidence of cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) varies between studies, but it is estimated to be between 2 and 5 per million per year. A recent study in the Netherlands with comprehensive ascertainment suggested a much higher incidence." https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/full/10.1161/STROKEAHA.116.0... So the six reported cases in 6.8 million vaccinations seems low. Glad I read about all this because I got the J&J…

"So the six reported cases in 6.8 million vaccinations seems low." No, because those 6 cases are something more like "1 per day" rather than "per year". Or maybe "per week". But either way, you need to multiply the "per year" base rate by a large number to get the base rate for "coincidentally happened immediately after a particular event", for some definition of "immediately".

They also appear to cluster in young women and one young man (from the phase 3), do it’s quite probable that the “6 million” is not representative.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#728

Post by foobiekr »

ffggvv wrote: post #544
textman wrote: post #322

"The incidence of cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) varies between studies, but it is estimated to be between 2 and 5 per million per year. A recent study in the Netherlands with comprehensive ascertainment suggested a much higher incidence." https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/full/10.1161/STROKEAHA.116.0... So the six reported cases in 6.8 million vaccinations seems low. Glad I read about all this because I got the J&J…

seems like they were all young women. so let’s say young women make up 1/4 of those vaccinated. for them it’s more like 1/250k

But not _young_ women. We may be seeing something legitimate.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#729

Post by mzs »

josephcsible wrote: post #713
mzs wrote: post #711

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That runs contrary to good public health policy for C19 where even the fully vaccinated should follow many precautions such as masking in public and limiting number of households in close contact.

If you believe good public health policy requires that there be restrictions on gatherings even where everyone is fully vaccinated, then what do you see as the path back to full normality? Or is this just how humanity has to live forever now?

Only 22.7% of US pop is fully vaccinated as of 0600 ET today.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations

When that reaches +80% the recommendations will ease more but as of now:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/fully-vac...

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