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Billionaires Build

paulgraham.com

721–730 of 957 posts

Re: Billionaires Build

#721

Somewhat of a meta point - but it seems like AirBnB the go-to example that PG uses in his essays (even if he mentions others - like Boom in this case). AirBnB is of course a total homerun, but surely there are other companies like Stripe, Cruise, DoorDash, Dropbox, Gitlab etc... that have equivalently good reference points for how founders should think. I'm curious if there is something that sets the ABNB folks that…

Could be because they're about to IPO. Though same is true of DoorDash, and GitLab probably not too far behind.

Re: Billionaires Build

#722

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t know, many some more of the value of those assets could go to the workers who created the value.

Who’s going to invest the capital and do the work to run a company that develops technology (eg. hiring the tens of thousands of people required to fabricate 5 nm chips and build cell phones) if there is no way to become a billionaire off of it? I figure the people who are capable of that kind of stuff would put all their efforts toward overthrowing the system instead if that’s what the rules were.

Is there no one who would invest capital in order to earn only hundreds of millions of dollars?

Re: Billionaires Build

#723

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That would be a more correct view. In much debate and discussion I see "market value" substituted for "value". Often the implication is a vague one, as withmuch equivocation. pg's argumentventures there. Keep in mind that Smith, Ricardo, and Marx each commit this error, including in the Smith passage I quoted. So do the Marginalists, or at leaast most of them. Mariana Mazzucato may be an exception. (I've just discove…

Separating value and price is 101 of marginal economics. There couldn't be consumer surplus without it. I don't know how you could be marginalist and believe market price = value for user.

The fundamental principle of marginalism is, er, marginalism: that the derivative of supply or demand functions is what determines market price (not to be confused with "value", though it often is). The marginal cost or value.

Re: Billionaires Build

#725
post #697

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Non-heritable effects (including epigenetic) are estimated to contribute to less than 30% of population intelligence variance.

If you were familiar with the data, you wouldn't make statements like that, because heritability is a population statistic, not a constant. It varies significantly between populations, to the point where you can't make claims about it without controlling for the population you're studying. For instance, we could say that the heritability of intelligence among the children of suburban Chicago families in a particular…

If you were familiar with the data, you wouldn't make statements like that, because heritability of intelligence is largely the same across all population studied so far, and universally high. There are exceptions, e.g. Scarr-Rowe effect is most likely real, but it only seems to work on very low end of SES range, which is virtually unseen in today's America, even at the lowest end of what counts as poverty.

Re: Billionaires Build

#726
post #545

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How? $10-20 an hour is better than minimum wage and a few years ago I worked a labor job that "only" paid $12.00/hr. Is Jeff Bezo's personal net worth the causation behind someone not being able to support a family? What about Zuckerberg, what is the average salary of a FB employee? If its above a certain amount is that a "moral" billionaire? I would argue that pursuit of profits can lead to bad things for employees.…

My view is that "creating" a billion dollar company is a misleading description. I view it more as "capturing" a billion. You mention FB. With network effects, it is inevitable that there will be a few large dominate social media companies. If it wasn't Zuckerberg it would have been someone else. I view these people not as pioneers pushing us forward but as lottery winners. Why should the lucky one on top capture mos…

>Why should the lucky one on top capture most of the value?

Because they were first or best to do it. MySpace was already a thing, several other social media sites but today they're mostly dead while FB is not. Luck does have a lot to do with it. I feel trying to quantify luck though will get us no where. Trying to "correct" for it, even more so.

>The people like Newton and Einstein who actually had revolutionary ideas were not even close to billionaires.

Do you think they should be? I cannot think of a reason... but I do understand what you mean.

>I am not sure why you feel that "taxing rich people" makes everyone worse off.

I think it would be hard to quantify it but yes, I do think people are "worse off" - not by much though, if you're going by metrics like salary. I'm thinking about all the advances we've made. I don't see half the stuff happening if not for the ability for excess money to be invested. I mean, the very thing we're talking on for instance (and yea maybe it could have been on some other site like FB or reddit) but those are also because of investing.

>60 years ago a man with a high school diploma could support a middle class life for a family of 4. Taxes on the highest earners were much higher than they were today. 60 years before that there was no federal income tax and people worked 14 hour days in dangerous conditions while Carnegie and Rockefeller amassed wealth on scales not seen until today.

I don't see how the two are related though. There were a lot of things different about back then vs today. I would like to see the focus be on rent and CoL as I see those as way more of a problem than if Jeff Bezos has $50b or $100b. (his wealth has fluctuated like crazy with covid and divorce).

>But yes I agree with you that a tax on each market trade is lol stupid. But I think it is a straw-man argument

I'm glad you agree and also glad its not like twitter or reddit where we have to try to score cheap condescending shots in to "argue" lol... but alas. I would say if its the very thing presidential candidates like Bernie and Andrew Yang are saying they would like to get done, I would consider that beyond a straw man.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/why-bernie-s... https://www.yang2020.com/policies/financial-transaction-tax/

It is also what people are pushing as a solution for student debt.

I agree the 100% tax is a strawman though! ... Unless a significant figure proposes it, I will always say that's a strawman lol

Re: Billionaires Build

#727

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OP's argument was that capturing value itself is bad. But I suspect you don't check to see if your apple sellers have plenty of other potential buyers before buying apples. If nobody else is buying, then the seller lowers the price until the market clears, and you get a bargain. Lucky you.

That's true, I generally don't care about the welfare of apple sellers, and I'll take a deal when I see one. But, and I hate to stretch this analogy to its breaking point, it's more like the overwhelming majority of Americans are apple sellers (read: wage laborers) and they have no way to achieve basic human rights like food, shelter, and baseline medical care without selling their apples. And they can only sell to o…

We are indeed far from the original argument that billionaires and creating value are bad. But I respect your right to petition the government to bring back housing projects and welfare cheese.

Re: Billionaires Build

#728
post #712

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Ah, we've reached the crux of the problem. You are not concerned with making things good only with making them even. This is just crab mentality[1]. Someone else has more than you, so you need to pull them down. Or perhaps you've conflated the two and think that if things are even, they will necessarily be good, or at least better than they are when they're uneven. Let me assure you, it is entirely possible for thi…

> That's another assumption, I'm concerned about both. Not an assumption at all. From your response to my other comment: "You can burn the money in a furnace for all I care, as long as the ratio between the richest and poorest goes down substantially." I'm really trying, and I can't find any other way to interpret that than your primary, if not only concern, is just making rich people poorer. > You still haven't answ…

I was exaggerating to make a point on a different comment you made about "government bad". I forgot I was on the internet for a second and couldn't use rhetoric. Rest assured, if you want to take the money from Bezos and invest it in Medicare for All and expanding fiber internet to rural Appalachia, I am 110% onboard.

> You still haven't explained exactly how you would make this happen. Forced stock sales? Government mandated price caps on stocks? What? Is Bezos supposed to write a check for $130B? You realize it's not sitting in cash in a bank account, right?

Assume that Congress can edit a database of every citizens' net worth by legislative fiat. Answer the question about how lessening economic inequality is going to negatively impact the average American.

> But more importantly, you are the one proposing a radical change to the status quo. The onus is on you to prove, not only that the change is not harmful (not at all apparent from historical evidence) but that it will provide some benefit that will outweigh the cost to implement it. I mean a benefit besides "It makes me feel bad when people are richer than me, and I'll get to enjoy some schadenfreude if they get knocked down a peg".

Disagree. I'm proposing a return to a previous status quo that was more broadly equitable. The onus was on the neoliberals to prove the changes they were making in the 80s and 90s weren't harmful. Turns out they were. Again, you are reducing my argument down to my feelings, but I don't personally give a fuck if Jeff Bezos is a ba-zillionaire, so it's not really hitting home - I'll be fine either way. I just think it's bad for society generally when a few jerks with money get to have private space programs in a country with millions in poverty and homeless. I'm not a huge fan of bloody prole revolutions or fascist coups, personally. That's just me.

> What you are proposing is not the New Deal, nor the Marshall Plan, nor any economic policy that has been tried in the US before. The New Deal did not involve confiscating 73% of the wealth of billionaires (or the inflation-adjusted equivalent). It did not involve taxing unrealized gains on stocks. The US has never had a wealth tax before. Most countries that have had one ended up repealing it because it's expensive to enforce compared to the amount of revenue it brings in and wealthy people, unsurprisingly, are quite capable of moving to another country that doesn't have a wealth tax.

Again, I'm not proposing any specific remedy, so you are assigning an argument I haven't made. I'm totally fine with re-appropriating the money, but you seem to really hate the idea of giving the government having any ability to direct funds. I'm diagnosing the problem, and asking what you think would be the negative impact if we simply took away 73% of the wealth each billionaire holds, which you won't answer, because you know the answer is "nothing bad". Many countries aren't the United States. If the billionaires want to try offshoring their money and renouncing their citizenship, I'll trust the (ideally, re-empowered) Treasury and the State of New York to get our money.

Re: Billionaires Build

#729
post #346

(I originally posted this as a reply to a different comment but detached it because I don't want to pick on anyone personally, or appear to.) I think what underlies the outrage in this and similar threads is simple: people expect everything anybody says about "billionaires" to be bad. If someone breaks the rule, it doesn't matter what they say; the response will be just this outrage. And if they're a billionaire them…

We are advanced primates who evolved to live in small tribes. We expect our fellow tribespeople to cooperate which includes sharing resources to some degree. Billionaires are the equivalent to a tribeman finding a way to get 10,000 fish a day and keeping it all for themselves. It is so far beyond what they can eat that not sharing any of it would be extreme antisocial behavior, and would cause severe consequences, like getting kicked out of the tribe. If another tribesman started speculating "that, hey we are still as well off as before so is he really that bad", it wouldn't be taken as philosophical musing but as defending behavior that hurts the survival of the tribe.

Re: Billionaires Build

#730

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Nobody called Zuckerberg or Bezos exploitative when they were coding in dorm rooms and folding boxes on Ikea tables Actually lots of us called them exploitive. It might not change anything, but it's worth noting that a lot of us knew that facebook would grow into the great evil that it is today. It was also obvious that Amazon would eat all retail stores, and it pretty much has.

I thought Amazon was sort of magic in a scary way twenty years ago, but as you say, lots of people had a similar impression. What's interesting are the people who don't see the threat even today .

What is the threat? No one makes me use any of their services or buy any of their products. But I have and will continue to do so because Amazon is so obviously superior to the competition.

Recently I have begun ordering from Walmart. Why? They have upped their ecommerce game.

Just as Sears was once dominant and even sold houses via catalog, and no one in 1930 could have imagined Sears going bust, no one in 2020 can imagine Amazon losing its dominance.

But Sears collapses, IBM fades, and the world moves on.

In 2020 I’m happy Amazon exists, proud America allowed it to grow, and don’t feel ill-will towards people who voluntarily agree to work for them.

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