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Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

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Re: Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

#721

Post by taneq »

thaw13579 wrote: post #687
taneq wrote: post #633

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The number of times that "you can't stop / brake / slow because someone behind you will run into you" comes up in these threads is always alarmingly high.

Indeed, it reminds of this article, which thankfully didn't end up killing anyone: https://www.wired.com/2015/07/hackers-remotely-kill-jeep-hig...

> Miller and Valasek’s full arsenal includes functions that at lower speeds fully kill the engine, abruptly engage the brakes, or disable them altogether.

Are there seriously cars on the road with complete fly-by-wire brakes which have no pure mechanical backup? That's horrifying. How did we go from dual redundant hydraulic systems that work (if in a reduced capacity) even when the ignition is off, to something at the mercy of some code that can be bamboozled over 3G?

Re: Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

#722

Post by kulu2002 »

nojvek wrote: post #674
aetherson wrote: post #384

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not without seriously increasing the costs for car rental. The cost savings for car rental are predicated on increased utilization. Increased utilization is predicated on each car having more people using it on any given day. And these things don't scale infinitely -- each car can only serve a particular locality. The number of variations that you propose is a fast geometric progression. Kids 0-12 months or so need d…

How about making your existing car self driving? Your stuff is always there in the trunk, but when you're not using it, it joins the fleet and earns you some money. I really want to see a day, where I drive my car to work. It then drives other people around and picks me when I am finished.

Retrofitting self driving system -- Nice idea!!!

Re: Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

#723

Post by semi-extrinsic »

taneq wrote: post #720
semi-extrinsic wrote: post #536

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. is never happening. If you want a proper safe car seat for a 1-3 year old, it's going to weigh 30-40 lbs no matter what sintered pixie dust you build it from. And it has to be pretty huge since a small person has to fit almost inside it. Even the ones for babies, that people for some reason I can't fathom like to carry around in the supermarket, are actually also 20+ lbs, you've just left 15 lbs remaining in the c…

> Even the ones for babies, that people for some reason I can't fathom like to carry around in the supermarket, [...] These are awesome because you can take your sleeping baby out of the car, carry them with you without waking them up, and put them back in the car without waking them up. Shopping is 10x faster this way than when you have to spend most of your time comforting/distracting an awake and fussy baby.

Maybe I'm spoiled with sleepy kids, but we would just go get one of the shopping carts with a baby seat on, lift baby from car seat to shopping cart seat (95% success rate for not waking baby), go shopping while actually having space for stuff in the cart.

Re: Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

#724

Post by euyyn »

DrScump wrote: post #662
euyyn wrote: post #567

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, it sounds to me like the feat of controlling a beast of a truck in an emergency situation is easier for a computer.

In terms of execution , I agree. Decision making is where human experience wins. I think an experienced human driver will better predict the irrational things another human driver might do.

Yeah I was just adding to the point of my parent, who focused on the decision making part.

Re: Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

#725

Post by baq »

achamayou wrote: post #532
baq wrote: post #444

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your examples aren't very good, sorry. We're talking about adding AI, autopilot, autonomous capabilities, whatever you want to call it to already existing hardware. It's mostly a matter of software and you're a living example that it can be done, in 20W, with nothing more than stereo cameras and mics. If I had to compare, I expect the change to be more akin to what Excel has done to paper spreadsheets.

Current voice processing tech is still very much worse than an average human, no matter how fancy the microphones and how much power it's allowed to consume from the grid. Good sensors aren't cheap, the optical and mechanical elements aren't likely to drop in price soon. Only the computing power is getting cheaper, but harnessing it isn't particularly easy (we're not getting better at programming as quickly as we're…

we don't disagree in anything. i'm just saying that it will happen, it's a matter of time - 5 years, 10 years, maybe 20 years, but it's going to happen. there's thousands of smart people working on it, millions if not billions already invested and tens of billions at stake.

Re: Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

#726

Post by amelius »

anonred wrote: post #666
Ph0X wrote: post #646

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I still finding it silly that they are trying to go straight for L5 (which is the only case where you can fully remove the steering wheel). By the sound of it, they already have an L4 going (can drive itself in 99.99% of the situations, might need user take over in very rare cases). Why not for now release an initial car with L4, and collect pile and pile of data, which is what they need to get over that last 0.01%.

I attended one of Google's talks on this. The rationale is that humans can't be trusted to take control in a timely manner for that 0.01%. Their internal testing with an L4 system on trained Googlers (who were told to remain alert in the event that action needed to be taken) had instances of testers sleeping, eating, putting on makeup, etc. They concluded that if Googlers with explicit training couldn't behave themse…

Or ... the car could monitor the driver too, and alert them when they lose attention.

Re: Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

#727

Post by BigJono »

ams6110 wrote: post #659
Florin_Andrei wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm not a huge fan of UBI since I think that makes people slaves of their State. When America will be able to shake off its own mythology about this notion of the "State" as an inherently bad actor - then, perhaps, America will be able to get out of the current rut it's stuck in. Yes, the "State" can be bad (I should know, I grew up in an actual bad "State" in the Eastern Bloc before the revolutions). But at the ot…

America was founded on the notion that the state is a bad actor.

And it will fall on that notion too if it fails to adapt to a changing economy.

Re: Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

#728

Post by murbard2 »

semi-extrinsic wrote: post #524
jcranmer wrote: post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Also: Private car ownership is going to fall off a cliff shortly after autonomous ride services arrive. Which probably means general demand for vehicles will fall off a cliff. I've seen this sentiment so many times now that I have to ask a serious question to anyone who echoes this sentiment: Do you own a personal car right now? If so, why? All of this... excitement over the transformations that self-driving vehicl…

I have to agree with you skepticism. Let's e.g. replace "car" with "apartment". Imagine an apartment where you pay a premium to have all the cooking, cleaning and maintenance done for you. This obviously exists today, yet >99% of people don't use it. I believe people like owning things, and using them to do stuff. This is a basic fact of being human. Probably goes right back to the stone age. I doubt autonomous cars…

Hotel apartments attract a lot of wealthy dwellers. It's less expensive than having to pay your own full-time house staff.

Re: Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

#729

Post by murbard2 »

semi-extrinsic wrote: post #524
jcranmer wrote: post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Also: Private car ownership is going to fall off a cliff shortly after autonomous ride services arrive. Which probably means general demand for vehicles will fall off a cliff. I've seen this sentiment so many times now that I have to ask a serious question to anyone who echoes this sentiment: Do you own a personal car right now? If so, why? All of this... excitement over the transformations that self-driving vehicl…

I have to agree with you skepticism. Let's e.g. replace "car" with "apartment". Imagine an apartment where you pay a premium to have all the cooking, cleaning and maintenance done for you. This obviously exists today, yet >99% of people don't use it. I believe people like owning things, and using them to do stuff. This is a basic fact of being human. Probably goes right back to the stone age. I doubt autonomous cars…

Hotel apartments attract a lot of wealthy dwellers. It's less expensive than having to pay your own full-time house staff.

Re: Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

#730

Post by WillPostForFood »

semi-extrinsic wrote: post #536
robbiemitchell wrote: post #346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have two kids. They need car seats. We often haul stuff between home and the in-laws. This makes perma-Ubering infeasible. We need a radically new car seat design, either: 1. Super portable and quick to install/remove, or 2. Built into the car, safe for all ages, easily extended/retracted.

1. is never happening. If you want a proper safe car seat for a 1-3 year old, it's going to weigh 30-40 lbs no matter what sintered pixie dust you build it from. And it has to be pretty huge since a small person has to fit almost inside it. Even the ones for babies, that people for some reason I can't fathom like to carry around in the supermarket, are actually also 20+ lbs, you've just left 15 lbs remaining in the c…

You are over estimating car seat weights. A large, one piece, high end seat for kids up to 70 pounds like a Britax Marathon only weighs 19.5 pounds. No pixie dust needed, just plastic and styrofoam.

https://us.britax.com/car-seats/marathon-70/ (see specifications)

Those detachable seats you see mom's carrying in the supermarket weigh about 10 pounds, and the base will be about the same.

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