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US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

theguardian.com

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Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#711

Post by BatteryMountain »

smdz wrote: post #666
holografix wrote: post #554

This is basically a win for Iran. 1. They replaced the decrepit Khameini with a much younger and more formidable Khameini. 2. “Pulled a Ukraine” vs the US showing defiance and have now rallied any wavering regime supporters against the American and Jewish “devils”. 3. Reminded the anti regime population that they’re not going anywhere and that the US can’t help them. 4. Showed everyone in the ME and the world that if…

This war (not the ceasefire) is basically a loss for the USA. Many people don't yet grasp the scale of the reputational, economic, and power damage that has occurred and will continue to occur.

Just the attack on data centers has caused certain conversations in my circles that basically comes to down to some guys will try to get off of foreign clouds and into local hosting in their own countries (most seems keen for co-location hosting because of the static ip ranges & other admin sugar and reliable power; not concerned about hardware pricing as the hardware is less than 10% of the equation). All thanks to a couple attacks on data centers that we are not even hosting on.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#712

Post by spwa4 »

darkoob12 wrote: post #630
jayd16 wrote: post #595

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm no fan of this administration but another way to look at things is that the US can essentially destabilize a region while facing mild commodity price increases. Actually it shows that the US could eliminate the leadership at its leisure even if it can't hand select the replacements. I'm also not sure the powers that be in the ME hate the rising oil prices. Again, not a fan of the situation and while I think it is…

The Islamic regem lost all its legitimacy in Jan. Even some loyalist where angry at them but they gain support of part of the people and found a reason to exist as the defender of the country. They will survive and become stronger particularly if they get an economic lifeline out of this peace deal.

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Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#713

Post by torlok »

gib444 wrote: post #560
IAmGraydon wrote: post #532

The fact that so many people on this thread believe any of this is real is really a sobering reminder. The entire thing, top to bottom, is theater.

To which extent exactly? The images of destruction are faked? I know what you're saying just not sure how literally to take your words

The talks are theater. Trump is running around like a headless chicken, so it may look like a lot of "diplomacy" is happening, but if you look at the Iranian side, they remain in control over the strait, and their demands haven't changed. The fact that Iran agreed to talk is because Trump caved-in enough.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#714

Post by watwut »

holografix wrote: post #554

This is basically a win for Iran. 1. They replaced the decrepit Khameini with a much younger and more formidable Khameini. 2. “Pulled a Ukraine” vs the US showing defiance and have now rallied any wavering regime supporters against the American and Jewish “devils”. 3. Reminded the anti regime population that they’re not going anywhere and that the US can’t help them. 4. Showed everyone in the ME and the world that if…

> 3. Reminded the anti regime population that they’re not going anywhere and that the US can’t help them.

More like: Reminded the anti regime population that US has no interest to help them and will happily kill all Iranians and proudly destroy all of civil infrastructure.

> 5. Destabilised the whole region costing the ME lots and lots of money.

In this case, the destabilization is firmly the fault of USA and Israel.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#715

Post by solatic »

entropyneur wrote: post #702

The real winner in this war is Israel. Iran's military might is now a shadow of its former self while all the costs have been paid by someone else: American taxpayers, gas consumers around the world, Arab states. Even the political costs are on Trump.

Certainly economically. NIS-USD exchange is now 3.09 and continuing to drop, reflecting optimism.

Strategically, it remains to be seen what will happen to the nuclear material in the peace talks. If Iran emerges from the war with an intact nuclear program due to a lack of American stamina to carry through and achieve its war goals, that would be an enormous strategic defeat for Israel.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#716

Post by Hikikomori »

tristanj wrote: post #625
karim79 wrote: post #614

This is Israel's "business as usual" stuff. Mowing the lawn, fake ceasefire, distraction, expansion and greater Israel project let's go! stuff. Stretch goal is to make Iran a failed state. Primary goal is distraction from the very real annexation of Palestinian and Lebanese territories, one war crime at a time.

[flagged]

Not true. Hamas wanted to do hostage exchange for Palestinian women and children held in Israeli prisons and truce within the first week. Israel refused.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#717

Post by andai »

holografix wrote: post #554

This is basically a win for Iran. 1. They replaced the decrepit Khameini with a much younger and more formidable Khameini. 2. “Pulled a Ukraine” vs the US showing defiance and have now rallied any wavering regime supporters against the American and Jewish “devils”. 3. Reminded the anti regime population that they’re not going anywhere and that the US can’t help them. 4. Showed everyone in the ME and the world that if…

Parable of the sun and the wind..

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#718

Post by straydusk »

smcnc wrote: post #237

I don’t see how the majority of comments paint this as a victory for Iran. Your entire formal military apparatus was destroyed, nuclear sites in rubble, defense industrial complex leveled, two levels of leadership KIA, and the only thing preventing you from permanent destruction or regime change is an impotent threat of attacking ships? I guess I’m missing something. War sucks but in this case Iran is a shell of the…

Have you missed the lessons of the last 25 years of US involvement in the middle east I guess?

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#719

Post by youre-wrong3 »

7952 wrote: post #689
tristanj wrote: post #625

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Israel are unwilling or unable to hold to agreements and that makes them an unreliable partner. The same has been true of America with Iran. Both Iran and America also have a maximalist approach in terms of use of remote weapons and reluctance to accept casualties. That limits the effectiveness of "might makes right". Massively more so in the larger Iran. And whilst Gaza might seem like a collosal defeat it could be…

[flagged]

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#720

Post by leonidasrup »

tristanj wrote: post #492
storus wrote: post #199

Does this mean that Iran will have functional nukes in two weeks? Given how previous "ceasefires" turned out (blowing up their leadership), I don't think they are naive again and don't seem desperate to end it.

No, there is more to building a functioning nuke than just fuel enrichment.

The access to highly enriched uranium or separated plutonium is the limiting factor for construction of nuclear weapons.

It really depends on how small and how efficient you need to make weapon, a nuclear weapon fitting inside a rocket nose cone is much more sophisticated than nuclear weapon that has to be only transportable by truck, ship or airplane.

For example, the simple design of Little Boy used on Hiroshima contained 64 kilograms of uranium, but less than a kilogram underwent nuclear fission.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_boy

"Unlike the implosion design developed for the Trinity test and the Fat Man bomb design that was used against Nagasaki, which required sophisticated coordination of shaped explosive charges, the simpler but inefficient gun-type design was considered almost certain to work, and was never tested prior to its use at Hiroshima."

So with access to highly enriched uranium (enrichment greater than 90%), a large and crude bomb could be produced in few weeks. How could they deliver it anywhere? They don't have airplanes. Truck? Speedboat?

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