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Tesla ending Models S and X production

cnbc.com

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Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#711

Post by lambdaone »

boogrpants wrote: post #702
mustyoshi wrote: post #697

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hyundai is partnering with Boston Dynamics to deploy 30k robots a year. Amazon is looking to replace 600k employees over the next decade. Why do you believe demand for humanoids isn't high?

"...demand for their robots..." Demand for Tesla products is tanking. Demand for humanoid robots not made by Tesla may rocket. Who knows.

If the humanoid robots are no better than the cars, it's unlikely. Unitree and Boston Dynamics are pretty much there in terms of solving the hardware problem, and the rest is software and the hardware manufacturing learning curve.

The Chinese are massively out-manufacturing Tesla in the electric car market - would you bet on Tesla somehow being better than the Chinese at manufacturing?

The rest as I said is software; given Tesla's consistent lack of success in "Full Self-Driving", would you bet on them outengineering the rest of the world in the software aspect of robotics?

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#712

Post by vimda »

londons_explore wrote: post #572
rswail wrote: post #334

So he milked Tesla for another $2B to subsidize xAI, has dropped the models to 2 (3 and Y), revenue is down, growth is negative, BYD is eating Tesla for lunch, followed by the other CN and KR vehicle companies. He doesn't have FSD, camera only navigation without sensor fusion with LIDAR will fail, the only thing keeping Tesla where it is is the bullshit dispersal field that surrounds Musk.

> camera only navigation without sensor fusion with LIDAR will fail I'm not so sure on this one. I think we'll see it this year. It will have embarrassing bugs (ie. running over cats which are hiding under the car) and we'll see lots of issues to begin with (ie. the car stops in the middle of a freeway because a camera got splattered with mud). But I think they'll achieve the goal of something that can be deployed fa…

How are those "bugs" not immediately disqualifying? "Move fast and break things" is not an acceptable strategy for controlling 2 tonne bricks hurtling down the freeway

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#713

Post by trgn »

groundzeros2015 wrote: post #693
vannevar wrote: post #29

The next shoe to drop will be shifting Model Y production from Fremont to Austin. Fremont will make Model 3s. Austin will make Model Ys and Robotaxis/2s. Cybertruck will be canceled. None of the Tesla plants will be making robots at any scale for many years.

Why would cybertruck be cancelled?

it's one of their models i would like for them to succeed the most. americans love trucks (especially where i live), and the impact of electric truck replacing ice ones on the gestalt of the neighborhood is significant, no noise, no fumes. people tend to drive their electric cars/trucks more gently too. my neighbor bought one, and it's night and day.

and oddly enough, while i kneejerk hated it at first, the design has grown on me, something genuinely different, playful. much rather see a parked cybertruck than yet another oversized bloated "regular" truck.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#714

Post by AlexandrB »

groundzeros2015 wrote: post #693
vannevar wrote: post #29

The next shoe to drop will be shifting Model Y production from Fremont to Austin. Fremont will make Model 3s. Austin will make Model Ys and Robotaxis/2s. Cybertruck will be canceled. None of the Tesla plants will be making robots at any scale for many years.

Why would cybertruck be cancelled?

Because it's selling terribly: https://www.businessinsider.com/cybertruck-sales-decline-tes...

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#716

Post by slfnflctd »

lateforwork wrote: post #612
ACCount37 wrote: post #587

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This LIDAR wank annoys me. If you can train a policy that drives well on cameras, you can get self-driving. If you can't, you're fucked, and no amount of extra sensors will save you. Self-driving isn't a sensor problem. It always was, is, and always will be an AI problem. No amount of LIDAR engineering will ever get you a LIDAR that outputs ground truth steering commands. The best you'll ever get is noisy depth estim…

Even the best AI can't drive without good sensors. Cameras have to guess distance and they fail when there is insufficient contrast, direct sunlight and so on. LiDARs don't have to guess distance.

Cameras also fail when weather conditions cake your car in snow and/or mud while you're driving. Actually, from what I just looked up, this is an issue with LiDAR as well. So it seems to me like we don't even have the sensors we need to do this properly yet, unless we can somehow make them all self-cleaning.

It always goes back to my long standing belief that we need dedicated lanes with roadside RFID tags to really make this self driving thing work well enough.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#717

Post by geoffeg »

groundzeros2015 wrote: post #693
vannevar wrote: post #29

The next shoe to drop will be shifting Model Y production from Fremont to Austin. Fremont will make Model 3s. Austin will make Model Ys and Robotaxis/2s. Cybertruck will be canceled. None of the Tesla plants will be making robots at any scale for many years.

Why would cybertruck be cancelled?

Lower than expected sales https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tesla-cybertruck-sales-elon-mus...

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#718

Post by AlexandrB »

trgn wrote: post #713
groundzeros2015 wrote: post #693

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would cybertruck be cancelled?

it's one of their models i would like for them to succeed the most. americans love trucks (especially where i live), and the impact of electric truck replacing ice ones on the gestalt of the neighborhood is significant, no noise, no fumes. people tend to drive their electric cars/trucks more gently too. my neighbor bought one, and it's night and day. and oddly enough, while i kneejerk hated it at first, the design ha…

In what world is the Cybertruck not "oversized" and "bloated". It has roughly the same footprint as an F150.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#719

Post by ben_w »

jacquesm wrote: post #691
sgjohnson wrote: post #485

Tesla will become a case study on how to completely waste the first-mover advantage. For many people, the very term EV itself is still ubiquitous to Tesla. And somehow Tesla is still worth more than every other non-Chinese automaker combined. $1.5T. GM? $80B. Stellantis? $40B. Toyota? $280B. Mercedes-Benz? $60B. BMW? $55B. Volkswagen Group? Also $55B. I’m sure I’ve missed plenty of others, but I could miss some 18 $5…

Tesla benefited from tax payer subsidies.

An important question is therefore: why didn't anyone else?

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#720

Post by assimpleaspossi »

breve wrote: post #546
assimpleaspossi wrote: post #537

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>The gamble with Cybertruck failed. Has it? I really don't know but I see these every day in my major city and there was a closed mall parking lot filled with cybertrucks the local dealer used to park there which were quickly turned over.

Yes. It's a flop: https://insideevs.com/news/784715/tesla-cybertruck-ev-sales-...

A flop is not a truck that was the best selling in the world two years ago and then 3/4 as many as Ford's EV truck and more than everyone else (according to your link).

And since when is HN just like Reddit when one is downvoted for asking a question for clarity?

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