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Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

martinalderson.com

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Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#711

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Isn't the logical endpoint of this equivalent to printing out a Stackoverflow answer and manually typing it into your computer instead of copy-and-pasting? Isn't the answer on SO the result of a human intelligence writing it in the first place, and then voted by several human intelligencies to top place? If an LLM was merely an automated "equivalent" to that, that's already a good thing! But in general, the LLM ans…

> Isn't the answer on SO the result of a human intelligence writing it in the first place, and then voted by several human intelligencies to top place? If an LLM was merely an automated "equivalent" to that, that's already a good thing! The word "merely" is doing all of the heavy lifting here. Having human intelligence in the loop providing and evaluating answers is what made it valuable. Without that intelligence yo…

>The word "merely" is doing all of the heavy lifting here"

That's not some new claim that I made. My answer accepts the premise already asserted by the parent that LLM is "equivalent to printing out a Stackoverflow answer and manually typing it into your computer instead of copy-and-pasting".

My point: if that's true, and LLM is "merely that", then that's already valuable.

>Having human intelligence in the loop providing and evaluating answers is what made it valuable. Without that intelligence you just have a machine that mimics the process yet produces garbage.*

Well, what we actually have is a machine that even without AGI, it does have more practical intelligence than to merely produce garbage.

A machine which programmers than run circles around you and me still use, and find it produces acceptable code, fit for the purpose, and possible to get it to fix any potential initial issues in a first iteration it gives, too.

If it merely produced garbage or was no better than random chance we wouldn't have this discussion.

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#712
post #554

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Yes, I know this sounds ridiculous and over-the-top. in that case you should come with more data. tell us how you measured your productivity improvement. all you've said here is that it makes you feel good

What's worked best with Gemini such I made a DSL that transpiles to C with CUDA support to train small models in about 3 hours... (all programs must run against an image data set, must only generate embeddings) Do not; vibe code from top down (ex. Make me a UI with React, with these buttons and these behaviors to each button) Do not; chat casually with it. (ex. I think it would look better if the button was green) Do…

THis is remarkably similar to the process we had to follow a couple of decades ago, when offshoring to IT mills: spell out every little detail in small steps, iterate often, and you'll usually get most of what you want.

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#713

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The greed/“capture all of the value” mindset of SaaS kills it, because you can infer the cost of delivery in many cases and beat it. For anything that is billed by the human, O365 is the benchmark. I’m not paying some stupid company $30/mo for some basic process, I use our scale to justify hiring a couple of contractors to build 80% of what they do for $400-600k in a few months. Half the time I can have them build on…

Yeah true, the downfall of most SaaS services I used was that they were too careful trying to build too much moat and sabotage any competing efforts. If they were a little more chill then I'd think they could make much more money. I personally would pay a few services, even as an individual, right now, if I knew I could always get a good database / JSON dump of everything at a 5-minute notice, and build my own thing…

Most of them are in the business of getting acquired, not the business of doing the business.

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#714

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah true, the downfall of most SaaS services I used was that they were too careful trying to build too much moat and sabotage any competing efforts. If they were a little more chill then I'd think they could make much more money. I personally would pay a few services, even as an individual, right now, if I knew I could always get a good database / JSON dump of everything at a 5-minute notice, and build my own thing…

Most of them are in the business of getting acquired, not the business of doing the business.

As a non-American this still surprises me to this day. Thanks for the reminder.

I really need to learn to look at an even bigger picture.

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#715
post #605

Earlier quoted context omitted.

your google-fu isnt failing. there's simply only a couple large studies on this, and of those, zero that have a useful methodology.

I think there is going to be 2-3 year lag in understanding how llms actually impact developer productivity. There are way too many balls in the air, and anyone claiming specific numbers on productivity increase is likely very very wrong. For example citing staff engineers as an example will have a bias: they have years of traditional training and are obviously not representative of software engineers in general.

FWIW I only mentioned staff engineers because the survey found staff+ engineers reported the highest time savings. The survey itself had time savings averages for junior (3.9), Mid level (4.3), Senior (4.1) and Staff (4.4).

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#716
post #554

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Yes, I know this sounds ridiculous and over-the-top. in that case you should come with more data. tell us how you measured your productivity improvement. all you've said here is that it makes you feel good

What's worked best with Gemini such I made a DSL that transpiles to C with CUDA support to train small models in about 3 hours... (all programs must run against an image data set, must only generate embeddings) Do not; vibe code from top down (ex. Make me a UI with React, with these buttons and these behaviors to each button) Do not; chat casually with it. (ex. I think it would look better if the button was green) Do…

This. I find constraints to be very important. It's fairly obvious an llm can tackle a class or function. It's still up to the human to string it all together. I'm not quite sure how long that will last though. Seems more of an engineering problem to me. At the end of the day you absolutely can get good outputs from these things if you provide the proper input. Everything else is orchestration.

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#717

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Religions are about faith, faith is belief in the absence of evidence. Engineering output is tangible and measurable, objectively verifiable and readily quantifiable (both locally and in terms of profits). Full evidence, testable assertions, no faith required. Here we have claims of objective results, but also admissions we’re not even tracking estimations and are terrible at making them when we do. People are notori…

Here's an example from this morning. At 10:00 am, a colleague created a ticket with an idea for the music plugin I'm working on: wouldn't it be cool if we could use nod detection (head tracking) to trigger recording? That way, musicians who use our app wouldn't need a foot switch (as a musician, you often have your hands occupied). Yes, that would be cool. An hour later, I shipped a release build with that feature fu…

I appreciate this example. This does seem like a pretty difficult feature to build de novo. Did you already have some machine vision work integrated into your app? How are you handling machine vision? Is it just a call to an LLM API? Or are you doing it with a local model?

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#718

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just as an aside I also think I am way more productive now but a really convincing datapoint would be someone who does project work and now has 5x the hourly rate they had last year. If there are not plenty of people like this, it cannot be 10x

That's not a very convincing argument. Even if you can do 10x the work, that doesn't necessarily mean you can easily find customers ready to pay 5x the hourly rate.

I understood their comment as going from

$100 / hour * 100 hours

to

$100 / hour * 500 hours

not to

$500 / hour * 100 hours

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#719

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you're openly saying you're fine with quantity over quality.... in software engineering? That's fine for a MVP, maybe, but nothing beyond on that IMHO unless they're throw away scripts. "Houston, we have a problem." "Yeah, but we did it in a 10th of the time"

Of course it's fine for any project. There is exactly one "best" programmer in the world, and at this moment he/she is working on at most one project. Every other project in the world is accepting less than the "best" possible quality. Yes... in software engineering . As soon as you sat down at the keyboard this morning, your employer accepted a sacrifice in quality for the sake of quantity. So did mine. Because neit…

I didn't intend to imply "best" even in the scope of a team, let alone every software engineer in the world. But, I understand your point and it's fair.

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#720

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not a very convincing argument. Even if you can do 10x the work, that doesn't necessarily mean you can easily find customers ready to pay 5x the hourly rate.

I understood their comment as going from $100 / hour * 100 hours to $100 / hour * 500 hours not to $500 / hour * 100 hours

But it specifically mentions having 5x the previous hourly rate.
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