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TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

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Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#711

Post by throwawayffffas »

tcmart14 wrote: post #704
throwawayffffas wrote: post #681

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 1. China takes Taiwan quickly. That is extremely unlikely to happen, Taipei has invested a lot in defense, and until lately the public in Taiwan at least says they would fight[1]. It's extremely unlikely that they will fold so fast that the US won't have to get involved or to choose to not get involved. > 3. Taiwan successfully defends itself, repels the Chinese invasion, and possibly even takes back some territory…

I was gonna take some issue with point one until I read point to, which sounds like it addresses my thoughts. China could take Taiwan quickly, but it would come at a pretty high cost to Chinese forces. I personally don't think China is really that invested into conquering Taiwan militarily, the Chinese invasion has been 6-9 months away for 30 years now according to "foreign policy" experts on Chinese-Taiwan relations…

I direct you to some foreign policy experts (war on the rocks)[1].

While we can't know what the central party committee is thinking, we know what they are saying, Xi in a speech in 2021 set the priority of having the capability of taking Taiwan by force by 2027.[2] Additionally they are probably not building the largest navy in the world and the largest collection of civilian roll on roll off ships for show.

I am not saying they will attack, but they definitely want to have it as an option.

[1]. https://warontherocks.com/2025/02/is-the-peoples-liberation-...

[2]. https://news.usni.org/2021/06/23/milley-china-wants-capabili...

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#712

Post by nozzlegear »

NickC25 wrote: post #658
UltraSane wrote: post #495

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump's extreme unpredictability might actually be a advantage in this scenario.

The CCP owns Trump. They could stroll into Taipei and Trump wouldn't lift a finger.

> The CCP owns Trump.

I'm not going to bat for Trump – I don't like the guy – but this seems provably false just based on the fact that Trump has already applied tariffs to Chinese imports. Not only that, he's ratcheting up those tariffs because Beijing has so far refused to come to the table. He seems to be continuing his 2016 policy of economically antagonizing the Chinese.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#713

Post by trashtester »

DiogenesKynikos wrote: post #568
drodgers wrote: post #464

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US would respond to with a freedom-of-navigation exercise backed up by the full might of US-PACOM. China would lose that standoff.

In a real shooting war, it would be suicidal for the US navy to go anywhere near Taiwan (at least early on in the war). China's arsenal of standoff weapons is orders of magnitude more potent than it was during the last Taiwan Straits Crisis.

I heard war games indicate that the US would lose at least a few carriers if they try to defend Taiwan.

That may be more than worth it if they succeed.

Taiwan is not like Ukraine. As long as TSMC has monopoly on the latest AI chips, it's at least as important as access to oil.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#714

Post by jjtheblunt »

knowitnone wrote: post #662
legitster wrote: post #643

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's worse than a rebellious province. It's a more successful rebellious province. For China, they hold up all of these technical accomplishments and quality of life improvements they have made under their one party system. But now over here is Taiwan that never bought in and is doing even better! It undercuts all of their messaging. If the communist party could wave a magic wand, they would take Taiwan and not just…

the US made China it's manufacturing arm and now the US wants to take that back? Kind of late. If China invades Taiwan, the US is to blame. Talk about putting all your eggs in one basket.

> the US made China it's (sic) manufacturing arm..

i think it's more accurate to give credit where earned: one thing the CCP did smart was _win_ foreign business (US Apple and Dell etc) by building the rentable factory system with deep dependable supply chains directly adjacent. That was uniquely able , globally, to compete and win business.

The US didn't seemingly even think to do that, perhaps distracted by the Cold War?

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#717

Post by OsrsNeedsf2P »

amelius wrote: post #401
DeathArrow wrote: post #362

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If bad guys do something, it's bad. If good guys do the same thing, it's good.

We don't have slave camps with Uyghurs though.

You should take a look at for-profit prisons in the US..

[0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penal_labor_in_the_United_St...

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#718

Post by null_deref »

smaug7 wrote: post #628
thereddaikon wrote: post #611

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China doesn't want Taiwan for TSMC. They want Taiwan because they see them as a rebellious province. In their mind, the Chinese civil war never ended and that island is the last bastion of the Kuomintang. One way I've heard it described in a way that is easier for Americans to understand is; Imagine at the end of the American Civil War, a confederate army retreated to an island like Cuba or Hawaii, they took it over…

This to me is the correct answer. A lot of times in war it's not about logic or reason, it's about emotion and feeling. Throughout Chinese history, a leader is only "legitimate" or dare I say, have the Mandate from Heaven, when they have unified the country under one banner. It is a stain on their authority that there is "rouge" state outside the CCP's control. They will do anything to unify their country for nationa…

I’m not sure I agree, Xi already proofed that he’s a great political mind by his actions with in the inner politics of his own party. I think he’ll treat the war with Taiwan rationally as the political tool that it can be. When the set of constraints and what he has to gain will be in his favor he may do it. I’m not an expert but I honestly can’t not see him risk what he built for so many years for that amount of potential destabilization.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#719

Post by ebruchez »

ecshafer wrote: post #602
lupusreal wrote: post #486

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would you subject your family to a Cultural Revolution in exchange for 100k? Add several zeros and assurances of safe passage out of the country and maybe you'd be onto something, but that's not going to happen for numerous reasons. The PRC already buys the loyalty of who they can in Taiwan, but Taiwan nevertheless remains resolute.

The cultural revolution happened 50-60 years ago. What culture would change in Taiwan? Mainland and Taiwan already share a lot of media.

I think the GP meant "a" cultural revolution, not "the" cultural revolution. But yes, the CCP taking over Taiwan would erode and then try to erase the beautiful and diverse culture of Taiwan. Schools will teach obedience to the CCP. History will be rewritten. Free media and foreign media will be censored. The entire set of democratic institutions of Taiwan will be dismantled. And you can go on and on.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#720

Post by dehrmann »

knowitnone wrote: post #662
legitster wrote: post #643

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's worse than a rebellious province. It's a more successful rebellious province. For China, they hold up all of these technical accomplishments and quality of life improvements they have made under their one party system. But now over here is Taiwan that never bought in and is doing even better! It undercuts all of their messaging. If the communist party could wave a magic wand, they would take Taiwan and not just…

the US made China it's manufacturing arm and now the US wants to take that back? Kind of late. If China invades Taiwan, the US is to blame. Talk about putting all your eggs in one basket.

US tariffs on China are worse for Taiwanese independence than TSMC building fabs in the US.
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