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Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

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Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#711

Post by _heimdall »

Clubber wrote: post #666
lispisok wrote: post #651

People debating about what kind of housing to build are getting ahead of themselves. The housing crisis is intentional. Homeowners demand the value of their home keep going up and they vote. They way to do that is to keep supply lower than demand. The first step to fixing the housing crisis isnt to figure out what kind of housing to build, it's to convince enough of the voting population there is a housing crisis tha…

Another problem is a vast majority of people want to / have to live in a very few select places. We could alleviate housing costs by changing that as well; back to supply and demand. I hope that StarLink and WFH are big pieces of the puzzle that will move people away from mega-dense population centers. We certainly have the acreage.

Starlink and WFH only matter if you assume jobs will primarily be online.

There would be plenty of new opportunities popping up if people began leaving population centers and distributing more evenly across the land. We wouldn't have the economies of scale that make large, centralized industries viable.

We would almost certainly need more locally sourced food for example. That would come with huge benefits that most would probably prefer, from health benefits to reduced pollution and animal cruelty.

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#712

Post by lelanthran »

shiroiushi wrote: post #676
Clubber wrote: post #666

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another problem is a vast majority of people want to / have to live in a very few select places. We could alleviate housing costs by changing that as well; back to supply and demand. I hope that StarLink and WFH are big pieces of the puzzle that will move people away from mega-dense population centers. We certainly have the acreage.

>Another problem is a vast majority of people want to / have to live in a very few select places. It's been like this since the dawn of civilization, and it isn't going to change. There's no substitute for physical proximity, unless you can invent the teleporter. >We could alleviate housing costs by changing that as well; back to supply and demand. No, you can't. You can't force people to want to live in the sticks.…

> No, you can't. You can't force people to want to live in the sticks.

"You can't force people to want"?

What are you trying to say? That sentence does not parse for me.

Of course you can convince people to happily move elsewhere: "Look, you can keep your current job, work remote, and instead of crammed into a 1-bedroom flat in a high-density block of multiple loud families, you can raise your kids here in Sleepyville, in a 3-bedroom house with a garage, a garden and an attic/basement for your hobbies."

People aren't stupid. The majority of them work to live, not live to work, and the substantial increase in quality of life afforded by large spaces let them live more than work.

The QoL increase in having an attic/basement for hobbies/workshop/kids/entertainment/whatever alone would get people to move. Then you add in things like usable private yard, much nicer room sizes, etc and for many people it's a no-brainer.

> people actually like to go places, socialize, go out to eat, see cultural events, etc.

You can, and many do, all of this just fine in all small towns and cities. You should, ironically, get out more.

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#713

Post by m_fayer »

lelanthran wrote: post #705
lispisok wrote: post #651

People debating about what kind of housing to build are getting ahead of themselves. The housing crisis is intentional. Homeowners demand the value of their home keep going up and they vote. They way to do that is to keep supply lower than demand. The first step to fixing the housing crisis isnt to figure out what kind of housing to build, it's to convince enough of the voting population there is a housing crisis tha…

Doesn't matter what you do, some places are more desirable than others to live in, and the end up attracting a premium. > Homeowners demand the value of their home keep going up and they vote. Bypassing the will of the voters is ... difficult. It's not impossible to force your moral mores onto voters who don't want it, but it sure ain't easy, and it ain't easy for good reason! > The first step to fixing the housing c…

Your alternative is more sprawl that will need to be supported by more new infrastructure that we already struggle to build out and maintain? I think we need to keep looking.

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#714

Post by alistairSH »

oblio wrote: post #479
sandworm101 wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> Everyone has their own bar, restaurant, theatre, and community center. As opposed to all the "urban lifestyle" people who readily offload their basic needs onto others. Some people are happy cooking their own basic foods. Others want them to be prepared, and their dished cleaned, by a team. Some people are happy with a beer fridge. Others want to go to a bar and pay a young person to smile and flirt while concocti…

Beer fridge? Is that supposed to be a fridge just for beers?

Yes, very common in the US. Often an older fridge that was moved to the garage or basement when the kitchen was remodeled. Sometimes a dedicated smaller fridge somewhere in the kitchen or living space - often also has wine, cheese, etc alongside the beer, depending on owner's preferences.

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#715

Post by lelanthran »

m_fayer wrote: post #713
lelanthran wrote: post #705

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn't matter what you do, some places are more desirable than others to live in, and the end up attracting a premium. > Homeowners demand the value of their home keep going up and they vote. Bypassing the will of the voters is ... difficult. It's not impossible to force your moral mores onto voters who don't want it, but it sure ain't easy, and it ain't easy for good reason! > The first step to fixing the housing c…

Your alternative is more sprawl that will need to be supported by more new infrastructure that we already struggle to build out and maintain? I think we need to keep looking.

Well the consolidation to make things cheaper isn't working out so well at making things cheaper, is it?

You can't have both "everyone should want to live in the same place" and then also want "everyone should be able to afford to all stay in the same place".

Highly contented areas aren't going to get cheaper even if you double the accommodation. The expensive areas are expensive because people either want to live there or need to live there.

If you reduce the amount of people who need to live there, prices will reduce accordingly.

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#716

Post by iamacyborg »

dingnuts wrote: post #546
iamacyborg wrote: post #505

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Having to stand for 20 minutes is not such a bad deal if you’re in decent health. Hell it’s probably good for you if you spend most of your day sat at a desk.

> if you're in decent health and if you're not? Not all bad health is a character failure, you know. Some people just have diseases like multiple sclerosis in the public vs private transit discussion, all I know is that I've never been harassed by someone else in my car on the way to work, but the subway was a different story, and I've spent a lot more time commuting by car than train

If you’re not then you can take one of the priority seats, it doesn’t have to be a big deal.

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#717

Post by hattmall »

lillecarl wrote: post #706
kombookcha wrote: post #693

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately I think the bump to WFH during the pandemic just further underlined this. A lot of tech people moved places away from where they work, or took distant remote jobs, only to suddenly have their employer demanded (some) physical presence. If a significant amount of jobs truly were completely remote, those people could disseminate away from the big population centers and alleviate housing shortages, but tha…

In Sweden I haven't heard of a single person moving to a shithole because of WFH. Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmö metro areas are nicer to live in than bumfuck nowhere. Probably related to public transport existing and commuting being less soul crushing.

That's Sweden though, there's a huge difference in the major metros and remainder. In the US it's far different. Outdoor recreation is a huge driver which in Sweden is very much comparatively limited. Rural / non-major metro areas homes have values have been increasing even faster as well as the rates of new construction in those areas.

For one thing, public transportation is absolute garbage and basically useless outside of NYC. DC, Chicago, and Boston are pretty much the only other cities where being dependent on public transportation is really viable. Of course you can do it in other places and millions of poverty stricken people do but it's rarely by pure choice.

Then it basically boils down to what's the point of living in the city? If opportunities for work are removed from the equation, it is mostly just going out to eat / drink and to the big ticket events that don't exist in smaller towns.

The dining and entertainment options are increasing and vast in small towns while urban venues are closing and there is a huge trend of the major event centers moving to suburban areas. The preference for outdoor recreation vs big ticket events means you are simply driving into the city for those things but able to enjoy much more of the things for which you had to previously drive out of the city.

The remaining big factor, which is probably not prevalent in Sweden to the extent that it is in the US is crime and the reality is you are far more likely to be victimized in urban environments. Police responses are lacking and most people don't even bother reporting low level property crimes anymore.

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#718

Post by m_fayer »

lelanthran wrote: post #715
m_fayer wrote: post #713

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your alternative is more sprawl that will need to be supported by more new infrastructure that we already struggle to build out and maintain? I think we need to keep looking.

Well the consolidation to make things cheaper isn't working out so well at making things cheaper, is it? You can't have both "everyone should want to live in the same place" and then also want "everyone should be able to afford to all stay in the same place". Highly contented areas aren't going to get cheaper even if you double the accommodation. The expensive areas are expensive because people either want to live th…

Our priors are different.

We need to not cover all decently accessible land on the planet with either sprawl or agriculture. That's bad for the environment.

People need to have affordable access to medium-to-high density housing for reasons of physical and mental and cultural health.

Concentrating people in medium-to-high density housing makes it easier to achieve our decarbonization goals.

We need to work backwards from there. If the market doesn't cooperate, the problem is the market and how it's set up, not the goals.

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#719

Post by tnel77 »

doctorpangloss wrote: post #141
tnel77 wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A major issue with housing is that it is a primary driver of wealth for many Americans. Obviously, this comes at the expense of our fellow Americans who do not own a home. I was able to buy shortly out of college (1% down loan) so rising home prices don’t impact me as much since my home has also gone up in value. I was able to sell the first house and roll that equity into the next house. As long as it’s the main sto…

Well but aren’t you giving a great example of how that wealth is illusory? The purpose of this comment is to make this conversation interesting instead of rehashing BS about NIMBYs. Don’t get me wrong, measuring billionaires’ wealth by multiplying stock price and stock count is flawed too, for a different reason. But both your wealth and that wealth are really measuring “taxable wealth in the marginal transaction cas…

The wealth may be imaginary, but the debt I took in via my mortgage isn’t haha. I get the point you are making though. Thank you for sharing your perspective.

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#720

Post by Spivak »

m_fayer wrote: post #718
lelanthran wrote: post #715

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well the consolidation to make things cheaper isn't working out so well at making things cheaper, is it? You can't have both "everyone should want to live in the same place" and then also want "everyone should be able to afford to all stay in the same place". Highly contented areas aren't going to get cheaper even if you double the accommodation. The expensive areas are expensive because people either want to live th…

Our priors are different. We need to not cover all decently accessible land on the planet with either sprawl or agriculture. That's bad for the environment. People need to have affordable access to medium-to-high density housing for reasons of physical and mental and cultural health. Concentrating people in medium-to-high density housing makes it easier to achieve our decarbonization goals. We need to work backwards…

> If the market doesn't cooperate, the problem is the market and how it's set up, not the goals.

Market schmarket, the thing not cooperating is people — families. Any plan that operates on the premise that people will be fine and willing to give up detached homes with useful amounts of land is doomed from the start.

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