AWS and Blockchain

> If you are comparing the state of the internet in 1983 (calling it the "big bang" because TCP/IP was standardized!!!) and equating it to the release of a software client that could be downloaded and run in 2009 I'm not sure that we can have a rational debate on this.

In 1983 the TCP/IP internet protocol was standardized, but so nascent as to be basically useless. In 2009 the Bitcoin internet protocol was standardized, but so nascent as to be basically useless.

Because both are internet protocols, they are directly comparable in some ways.

> The US Census didn't even track /access to a computer/ until 1984[0], at which point roughly 18% of the US population had "access" to a computer either at home or at work. Note that "access to a computer" != access to the internet. At the end of 1985 there were 2,000 total hosts on the internet[1]. You can't even find internet usage statistics until the early-mid 1990s at best because it was almost exclusively a tiny network of government and academia.

Usage of Bitcoin wasn't tracked during its early days. Note that "access to bitcoin" is not the same thing as being able to use it safely, which for less-technical users wasn't until the advent of licensed exchanges (such as Coinbase) and hardware wallets in 2012-2014. You can't even find node or participation data before about 2015 because it was almost exclusively a tiny network of cryptography and civil rights enthusiasts.

> If you are comparing blockchain transaction costs peaking at tens or hundreds of dollars to a minimum several thousand dollar investment and (at least for me) internet access prices of roughly $3 per minute[2] as late as 1994 I'm not sure that we can have a rational debate on this.

In order to take advantage of those sometimes hundreds-of-dollars DeFi transactions, you need to do a ton of prerequisite research so that you know how to safely manage keys and seed phrases, avoid scams, grant contracts no more access to your wallet than required, set gas prices, know what to do if a transaction gets stuck, and know the relative level of reliability and software maturity of each crypto network, for starters. For most people that requires a time investment of hundreds of hours or more, or dozens of hours at best if they are already tech savvy with a basic understanding of cryptography. It might as well be an amount of money (and people do end up "paying tuition" sometimes by falling victim to lost keys, scams, pump and dumps, etc).

Today, the internet doesn't require thousands in hardware and $3 per minute - you can buy a cheap phone and pop a cheap sim card in. I believe crypto will eventually reach this level of maturity, where grandma can execute a DeFi transaction cheaply, safely, and reliably - just as easy as clicking "confirm" on a web page.

> If you are comparing the state of software development from 2009 - 2015/2017 to the first 10 years of the internet I'm not sure we can have a rational debate on this. Needless to say because of the maturity and ubiquity of the internet and the software ecosystem, etc and the efficiencies it enabled by 2009 the situation each of these technologies matured in cannot even be compared.

1983 to 1993 as the internet's "spark period" (progress at the protocol layer) and 1993 to 2009 as its blossoming at the application layer.

2009 to 2025 as the blockchain's "spark period" (progress at the protocol layer - major upgrades to the Ethereum roadmap extend roughly this far), and 2025+ as its blossoming at the application layer.

> If we're being extremely generous the five years (from 2017 - present) and tens if not hundreds of billions of dollars that have been invested in blockchain is more than enough for some kind of application or use case to have emerged to trigger mass adoption. Yet here we are with a tiny fraction (1% at best) of the five billion people on the internet having anything to do with blockchain.

As of June 2022:

> According to data acquired by Finbold, about 10.2% of the global population using the internet owns some form of cryptocurrency (as per a survey carried in Q3, 2021 and published on January 26, 2022). Thailand accounts for the highest share at 20.1%, followed by Nigeria at 19.4%, a similar percentage to Philippine users. United States users rank in the 14th spot with a share of 12.7%. [1]

That's a figure of 10.2% of global internet users, so if you think only "1% at best" have anything to do with blockchain, then I'm "not sure that we can have a rational debate on this." In America, the figure is 56%! [2]

You plucked that 2017 date as "the date that blockchains are now scalable", but that's not exactly fair. That was the conception date of rollup tech - when someone first documented the idea to structure a chain in that way. Rollups are still not mature as of today - their date of full maturity is likely to be closer to 2024 (or 2025-2026 for the zk proof variety).

In the end, it's not a race and the exact timeline doesn't matter all that much. The important point to take in is that blockchain technology is still progressing at a very fast pace, and the tech will be able to do a lot more another five years from now than it's able to do today (and I am always happy to discuss the exact technical changes that are being made).

None of what I said seems irrational to me, and I think you are being unfair to the discussion process by categorically dismissing my arguments as such.

[1]: https://finbold.com/10-of-the-global-population-owns-some-fo...

[2]: https://www.fool.com/the-ascent/research/study-americans-cry...

Right, it doesn't make much sense and that's my point. If we don't have an objective criteria we cannot judge what is a good tech and what is a bad tech.

You think one techonoly is not important, another person think it's very important. I'm sure you're must better person that the any other person so we have to rely on your judgement, but it's not very scalable.

Where did you hear about it?

Usage of bitcoin statistics are available since epoch. Blockchain advocates always seem to forget about the public nature of blockchain when I bring up adoption. Look at a blockchain explorer. It’s all right there.

Your references to the UI/UX nightmare that still is blockchain only further highlight my points.

The surveys are hilarious. Setting up an account on Coinbase with an email address to trade on their internal order book has nothing to do with blockchain. It could just as easily be swapping virtual poker chips on a gambling website. Yet in a survey that counts as “blockchain”.

I generously “plucked” 2017 because that’s what you put forth as a best-case date to start triggering adoption. Yet here we are.

Timeline matters (though not a race) because blockchain is a doomsday preacher - “it’s about to happen” and then it never does.

We are giving you facts which are pertinent to this thread. Please provide a factual rebuttal of your own rather than claiming "conspiracy", which this is not.