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Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

economist.com

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Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#711

Post by adgjlsfhk1 »

terminalcommand wrote: post #287
kuschku wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You need certain machines for EUV. There's only one manufacturer (ASML) for those, and they're at capacity. And even if they wanted to scale up, there's only one manufacturer (Zeiss) for the EUV mirrors required for those machines, and all their capacity for the next years is already bought as well.

Why can't ASML scale up? I don't understand this. I think because they are a monopoly they can work slower, they don't need the extra profits.

Because they're already working on the next gen (High NA EUV) which are a lot faster than the current EUV machines so developing extra capacity for the current gen will in the medium term reduce supply.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#712

Post by whimsicalism »

rnk wrote: post #628
laverya wrote: post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think he's literally in the process of invading and subjugating a neighbor, actually. The Saudis might not call what's going on in Yemen an invasion, but it sure looks like it from here.

Yemen and the treatment of Khashoggi and many others by the Saudi govt could eventually yield a case for helping their neighbors resist them. Yemen is pretty horrible. We are stuck with oil dependence for now.

> We are stuck with oil dependence for now.

We produce more oil domestically than we consume.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#713

Post by CamperBob2 »

tsimionescu wrote: post #655
CamperBob2 wrote: post #567

Earlier quoted context omitted.

one of the biggest supporters of non-democratic regimes in the world... ...to fight the spread of Communism.

How is supporting Saudi Arabia helping fight the spread of Communism?

Valid point there; I was thinking South/Central America.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#715

Post by lobocinza »

rasz wrote: post #691
porknubbins wrote: post #619

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is TSMC/Taiwan’s unique capability? Aren’t ASML in Europe the ones making cutting edge EUV machines that drive process shrinks? I genuinely don’t know but I assume TSMC is mostly just good at scaling the production up economically.

Everyone can buy top of the line kitchenware, but you need great cooks to run 5 star restaurant. Its all about tuning to reach good yields, TSMC seems to excel at that.

Not everyone can buy top of the line kitchenware and you still need great cooks.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#716

Post by yazaddaruvala »

helmholtz wrote: post #402
yazaddaruvala wrote: post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You don't need more resolution, more bandwidth, more anything.. you probably need less, or more space to reflect and live outside the networked digital realm. Better tech is how humans (all of them - rather than the few) get more space to reflect and live outside.

As always , it is a question of degree. A young adult in the 70s had plenty of time to reflect and live outside. The technology of the preceding 50 years has not made this more accessible. If anything, the slot-machine nature of our computing reduces the likelihood of it.

> A young adult in the 70s had plenty of time to reflect and live outside.

A young adult "in an already developed country with relatively new infrastructure that had already been built for them and they chose not to continue to invest in and improve" in the 70s had plenty of time to reflect and live outside.

Meanwhile, because of those young adults lack of productivity in the 70s, people even in the US are drinking water with lead, have their homes destroyed by climate change, had the forests die and passively watched as desertification took hold.

That said, I don't blame those young adults individually, they were a product of poor societal leadership. While not in aggregate (as evident in today's "crumbling" US and European infrastructure and diminished infrastructural head-start), I'm also sure many of these individuals found a healthy balance between being outdoors relaxing and improving the human condition for the long run.

All I'm calling out is that in aggregate they were no bastions you should hold in any high regard, and definitely not something to try and replicate.

What we need is better technology to lift up the human condition, allow each of us to continue to help improve the human condition with roughly 40 hours per year of effort, and spend the rest outdoors/gaming/enjoying/relaxing in general.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#717

Post by yazaddaruvala »

agumonkey wrote: post #550
yazaddaruvala wrote: post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You don't need more resolution, more bandwidth, more anything.. you probably need less, or more space to reflect and live outside the networked digital realm. Better tech is how humans (all of them - rather than the few) get more space to reflect and live outside.

That's shallow. Current tech does not help. You have to filter data, organize, manage bookmarks, fomo, notifications, slippery software. Better is subtle. Nothing is a straight line.

Bookmarks and data filtering are intermediate technologies that help make more technologies (they are necessary, but useless in and of themselves). When I say better tech, I mean:

- Less human effort and overall cost to produce and store food.

- Less human effort and overall cost to grow, transport, and store food.

- Less human effort and overall cost to clean, transport, and store potable water.

- Less human effort and overall cost to keep everyone's bodies healthy.

- Less human effort and overall cost to keep everyone's minds healthy.

- Less human effort and overall cost to construct net-new housing (and frankly more generally "improve everyone's safety").

- Less human effort and overall cost to keep our planet healthy i.e. appropriately and continually terraformed for our needs.

- Less human effort and overall cost to travel/explore any and every inch of this planet (including the sea floor, the highest mountains, the sky, and even orbit). Fuck it, why think small, even less human effort and overall cost to travel/explore every inch of this universe.

These are the technologies we need to get more people outdoors!

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#718

Post by mistrial9 »

nebula8804 wrote: post #488
mistrial9 wrote: post #313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

well-connected one-percent chick goes to work for Intel Security long enough to get health care for babies then quits. At the same time, competitive University grad-with-honors working class girl does protests and environmentalism, can't have children with no health care, ends up hanging out with lots and lots of other thirty year olds in the same boat, with debt. Just another day in America.

But what did they major in? Did the well connected person major in CS while the honors grad major in underwater basket weaving? We are in a free market system that is not perfect at evaluating talent but things like degree help provide signals to employers.

here is a basket-weaver :

----- B--- (Hupa) received a BA from Stanford and wrote her 2017 Berkeley PhD dissertation Wailaki Grammar on a Dene language spoken along the Eel River in northern California. Now an Assistant Professor of Native American Studies at Humboldt State University, her research focuses on Dene languages, and on historical-comparative linguistics for language revitalization within the Wailaki and Hupa communities. While at Stanford and Berkeley she also worked with speakers of Karuk, Yucatec Maya, and Sereer. B---- is a coauthor of "Xo’ch Na:nahsde’tl’-te: Survivance, resilience and unbroken traditions in northwest California" (2019, with Cutcha Risling Baldy, in Ka'm-t'em: A Journey Toward Healing), and has contributed to the Hupa Online Dictionary and Texts project (at UC Davis). She is also a traditional basket weaver and singer from the Xontah Nikya:aw in Hoopa Valley, and a member of the board of the Advocates for Indigenous California Language Survival.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#719

Post by vagrantJin »

bluepizza wrote: post #672
vagrantJin wrote: post #568

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What a childish and naive take. I'll be blunt and assert its pretty dumb. Firstly, completely dismissing Japan as a sovereign state. Complete disrespect. Secondly, nuclear warfare is the dumbest solution possible. Who ever fires first must accept potentially losing the trust of all nations. No matter who fires for whatever reason. Barring an alien attack or something of that magnitide. Thirdly, the US power does not…

You seem to ignore other basics, such as the military alliance agreements currently in place. These agreements are actually enacted in law and backed by the presence of thousands of American troops in Japanese territory, and in billions of dollars of yearly payment from Japan to the USA for this alliance. Having a critical view of the world is a great thing, and I can only commend you for that. But you need to look i…

Ah. I would think military alliances based on economic alliances are self-evident.

In the case of Japan and South Korea, those are not sovereign states but protectorates of the US. At least because they were occupied by the US post WWII and limited military autonomy because of US directives.

My point being the US is an imperial state masquarading as a cheerleader of democracy. The only reason no one says anything is because the US has the biggest stick in the room and anyone refusing to bend over to be shafted is public enemy number 1 ie. China, Russia and the levant.

Its surprising how weak Europe is considering how much experience they have in warfare but it is what it is.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#720

Post by kragen »

kragen wrote: post #294
galangalalgol wrote: post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The games played with currency and private debt that fueled the massive export boom are not sustainable indefinitely. There are already signs it may be tipping, and the world raising interest rates to combat inflation will worsen the situation. Combine that with their exports to the US falling due to sanctions and a new interest in US manufacturing. And as their population and the population of their other trading pa…

I agree with many of these points. The future is unpredictable, whoever is on top today will not be on top forever, and the idea of being governed by the PRC is very unpopular in Taiwan. And nothing you have said supports our more ignorant interlocutor's point that Xi's policies have "killed China's economy". Still, other points I disagree with. PRC's exports to the US are not falling; they fell in 02019 due to sanct…

Related to PRC reducing dependencies on TSMC, today I saw in https://www.cnx-software.com/2022/10/22/10-cents-ch32v003-ri...:

> GT Collection

> Great silicon part, and quite timely as we were forced by HQ last Friday to revise all product line designs to comply with 100% Chinese domestic semiconductors & passive components by latest Q4 end. All western sourced/accounts and parts are now forbidden, apart from those sourced by HQ’s registered jurisdiction.

> Worth adding to the list, we’ve also signed accounts with GigaDevice and Expressif Shanghai in the MCU and connectivity range. Thanks for the info, we’ll get in touch with WCH and have a few shipped over for bench tests.

Although another commenter claims GigaDevice and Espressif have all their parts made by TSMC?

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