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What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

reuters.com

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Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#711

Post by us0r »

brabel wrote: post #512
ChildOfChaos wrote: post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean all I see when I look online is Russia attacking Civilians and not caring who they attack. Yes there is a degree of restraint because they are trying to take the country over, they cannot burn it to the ground, but they don’t really seem to care about civilians and keep committing war crimes, just now they directly bombed near a hotel and train station, people trying to flee the country. Saying they are ‘pro-c…

> just now they directly bombed near a hotel and train station, people trying to flee the country. I've just read that the explosion near Kiev's train station (if that's what you're talking about) was due to a Russian missile that got intercepted by Ukrainian defense. It would make zero sense for Russians to be using their weapons against anything non-military at this point given that, if reports are true, there's st…

I'll just drop these 2 of dozens of examples here:

https://youtu.be/8ekA9skT7QQ

https://youtu.be/YMMxwA4lvbA

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#712

Post by sterlind »

oblio wrote: post #690
ghostwriter wrote: post #611

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I wouldn't be shocked if by next winter 60%+ of the gas supply for Western Europe will be covered from other vendors, more or less bankrupting Russia you will be shocked to discover that Russia is going to fuel China's economy instead [1] [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-28/gazprom-p...

The Chinese are not kind masters.

CCP is at least sane and thinks long-term. They don't want nuclear war, at least. I'd honestly feel relieved if Xi were pulling Putin's puppet strings at this point.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#713

Post by runald »

Cd00d wrote: post #353
jl6 wrote: post #261

I guess everyone's weighing in with their view, so why not? Firstly, we should be mindful that the fog of war is now in play, and a good amount of what we think we know is unverifiable. With that caveat out of the way... It seems that the Russian soldiers are making efforts to avoid attacking civilians directly. Counterexamples exist and could be explained by rogue units, incompetence, or hot-blooded revenge on local…

suzerainty You can't just lob a hundred dollar word out like that! I spent several moments trying to figure out what your typo was before allowing the possibility that you didn't have one. a relationship in which one state or other polity controls the foreign policy and relations of a tributary state, while allowing the tributary state to have internal autonomy

I first learned the word suzerainty from the game Trails from zero, where Crossbell is a vassal state that is held suzerain by the two dominant states surrounding it, Erebonia and Calvard. I first thought it was a typo too.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#714

Post by us0r »

pastacacioepepe wrote: post #673
jl6 wrote: post #261

I guess everyone's weighing in with their view, so why not? Firstly, we should be mindful that the fog of war is now in play, and a good amount of what we think we know is unverifiable. With that caveat out of the way... It seems that the Russian soldiers are making efforts to avoid attacking civilians directly. Counterexamples exist and could be explained by rogue units, incompetence, or hot-blooded revenge on local…

All your variants are based on the assumption that Russia wants to stay in Ukraine. From what I've seen i don't think that's the goal. Russia probably wants eastern Ukraine (and let's admit it, Donbass and Donetsk are not Ukrainian anymore since 8 years), but has no interest in occupying the western part, only in ensuring it stays neutral geopolitically. People talking about Russia planning to invade Finland or other…

> From what I've seen i don't think that's the goal.

He literally went on a 45 minute rant about how Ukraine isn't a country right before this started.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#715

Post by water8 »

ethbr0 wrote: post #685
water8 wrote: post #634

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's what the KC-46 and KC-135 are for

Tankers don't solve transit time for Atlantic and Pacific-magnitude distances.

What transit time? The Airforce establishes air superiority starting at the carrier and extending out the aircraft combat range (500-700miles) + refueling range (500miles) + missile standoff range (300miles). It's a pretty big sphere of influence and the US has 14 of them.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#716

Post by servytor »

Cd00d wrote: post #353
jl6 wrote: post #261

I guess everyone's weighing in with their view, so why not? Firstly, we should be mindful that the fog of war is now in play, and a good amount of what we think we know is unverifiable. With that caveat out of the way... It seems that the Russian soldiers are making efforts to avoid attacking civilians directly. Counterexamples exist and could be explained by rogue units, incompetence, or hot-blooded revenge on local…

suzerainty You can't just lob a hundred dollar word out like that! I spent several moments trying to figure out what your typo was before allowing the possibility that you didn't have one. a relationship in which one state or other polity controls the foreign policy and relations of a tributary state, while allowing the tributary state to have internal autonomy

Another word is “stratocracy” which defines Russia, as Putin is ex-KGB.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#717

Post by cycomanic »

oh_sigh wrote: post #502
cycomanic wrote: post #401

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But if you compare the outrage about what was happening in Syria (or Iraq or Afghanistan) to the outrage now, we clearly are at a very different level. It can't be because the Russian are acting so much more ruthlessly now.

If you have a theory to explain a set of facts, pointing to the set of facts as an implicit justification for your theory does not logically follow. Maybe Westerners care more about the Ukrainian situation because Ukraine was by and large a peaceful, lawful country until the war started. Do you think the western response would have been a little different if there was a pre-existing civil war in Ukraine, and Russia s…

I don't know how to say this nicely, but you seem not to have been paying attention. There was a pre-existing war happening. Russia annexed the Krim in 2014 and there have been skirmishes in the separatists areas ever since.

Also do tell what was the existing civil war in Iraq?

The guardian had an article about some of the comments made by journalist and politicians and there is no other way then to say they are racist.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/02/civili...

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#718

Post by gojomo »

def_true_false wrote: post #659
gojomo wrote: post #562

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you assign conclusive weight to recent "news", rather than historical precedents, I think you'll remain at the mercy of constructed narratives about what's really happening in high-stakes diplomacy & warmaking. The US was shouting from the rooftops that they expected an attack, in a manner putting real credibility at risk. While laypeople, & left footsoldiers, may have completely discounted the possibility, German…

You massively underestimate the complexity required of any such conspiracy. NATO has 30 member states, EU has 27 member states. Most have leaders who can not ignore domestic public opinion and they almost never agree on anything. Some have leadership positions with more ceremonial role, who nevertheless have access to classified material and/or are formally the commander of the armed forces. The likelihood that even…

As far as I can tell, none of Germany, France, or Italy – key countries who'd seemed a bit squishy – have 'eurosceptic' leaders. And I'm not alleging any "secret plan" requiring coordination – some "conspiracy" to hide the certainty of a stronger response – just the normal duplicity & halfheartedness & wishful-thinking of politicians, which you allude to.

That stronger pre-invasion deterrence wasn't popular in "domestic public opinion" is all that it takes, for the private discussions between the national-security establishments & top rulers to go roughly:

PRE-WAR SANCTION HAWKS (eg: US): "They're gonna invade all Ukraine, here's how we know, precommitting to all the tough measures you'd surely do if that happens might deter it."

PRE-WAR SANCTION DOVES (eg: DE): "Well, really-specific toughness up front isn't popular with our voters, & we're still hoping for that tiny chance Putin's just saber-rattling, despite your evidence. So, if what you say materializes, we'd be able to be tougher than Putin expects. But we can't signal that beforehand, no matter the benefits."

Voila. They've hidden their true level of commitment to retaliate economically, under the eventuality we find ourselves in – no fancy multilateral secret plans required.

The flip in Germany, especially, was dizzying, wasn't it? Do you think the whole package was improvised in the preceding few days? Or that it was assembled from preexisting "break in case of fire" emergency plans, at the very top, that lower-ranking party-members & coalition partners simply didn't need-to-know? I'm saying the latter.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#719

Post by dmz73 »

zabzonk wrote: post #688
dmz73 wrote: post #637

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That footage is not of a cluster bomb. Cluster bombs consist of many small bombs that spread over a large area and don't all detonate at once but instead detonate over longer period of time in order to maximize casualties and make area difficult to access https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cluster_munition . NATO used cluster bombs in the 1990s bombing of Serbia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ni%C5%A1_cluster_bombing . If…

> I think we are now seeing a clearer picture of what happens when there is a conflict in an urban area Now? Have you heard of Stalingrad?

The problem with history lessons is that pictures are b&w and static so it seems like it was all over long time ago and now we are OK. The problem with Iraq and Syria is that they are over there where wars always happen so it's nothing unexpected to westerners (whose governments probably had a role in starting those wars). Even Yugoslavia was 30 years ago and back on Balkans so who cares (I am from there and I do care). With Ukraine at least some Europeans are now getting an idea how bad war is but I suspect a lot are still ignorant and cheer for fighting to continue until "victory".

THERE IS NO VICTORY FOR REGULAR PEOPLE IN THESE CONFLICTS. THEY LOST EVERYTHING.

It seems to be impossible to explain to most people that war is bad for them and the only people who "win" are the politicians and their rich sponsors. I will count myself lucky if I manage to die before we get into a nuclear war.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#720

Post by slim »

whimsicalism wrote: post #660
slim wrote: post #643

Earlier quoted context omitted.

bombing cities in the twitter era creates an undelible trail of images of dead civilian infants that make you lose the war. russia simply decided to give Ukraine gov. the exclusivity of bombing civilians. Photos are already out there despite the massive international PR/PSYOP campain. Search for dombass

Not true of Syria.

you're right. They did not lose the war because they were facing a lousy enemy
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