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The global fertility rate is falling

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Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#711
post #651
post #626

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The children who exist after you made them.

But they don't exist at the moment you make them, so before they exist you have no reason to sacrifice anything for _them_ because there is no _them_. If you give up a job to move somewhere to move to a city to meet your future partner, you didn't sacrifice your job for them, at least not in the sense that any nobility can be derived from that act. You gave something up, yes, but not for _a person_ because you don't…

> So deciding to have kids, even if you have to give something up, is not some selfless or noble act

Sure, but assuming that you know the decision will lead to such sacrifices, it can hardly be called a selfish one either. Especially since the gratification of "wanting something for themselves" (which you claim it's all about) also doesn't actually manifest until later, actually after the sacrifices do.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#712
post #517

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't even think it's logically valid. I think if you raise your children well, the chance that they'll be there for you in old age is very high. If you don't have kids, the chance you will have friends that loyal is low. Blood is thicker than water, people should be realistic. How do you measure that statistically? All you have are personal experiences. Saying, "not statistics, isn't valid" is obtuse, it leaves yo…

> Blood is thicker than water, people should be realistic. Somewhat off-tangent here, but this is a frequent misunderstanding of this particular quote. The actual quote is: “the blood of the covenant is thicker than the water of the womb” and it means the exact opposite of what we now use it for. The intended meaning is that relationships entered into as adults are much stronger and deeper than those we are forced in…

That appears to be a matter of discussion - the oldest current recordings don't have the conventant comparison and it seems to be a couple of scholars claiming that bit.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blood_is_thicker_than_water

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#713

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know Americans on the internet usually view their country with rose-shaded glasses but this comment has to take the price. I don't know the number, don't think anyone does, but off the people I know, 100% would never want to move to any state in the US. Probably the real number of people wanting to immigrate to the US is closer to 0% than 100%.

The people you know are almost certainly not representative of the world at large. Maybe 80% is a bit high, but the number is certainly over 50%. The median global person earns less than $3000/year.

> The people you know are almost certainly not representative of the world at large

Yeah, most certainly.

> The median global person earns less than $3000/year

What does that have to do with anything? In plenty of places you can easily survive and have a good time with $3000/year, so not sure where or how this is relevant.

And how you get the "certainly over 50%" number from? You happen to be American too?

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#714

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't even think it's logically valid. I think if you raise your children well, the chance that they'll be there for you in old age is very high. If you don't have kids, the chance you will have friends that loyal is low. Blood is thicker than water, people should be realistic. How do you measure that statistically? All you have are personal experiences. Saying, "not statistics, isn't valid" is obtuse, it leaves yo…

>I think if you raise your children well, the chance that they'll be there for you in old age is very high. Our old friend Dunning-Kruger rather spoils this strategy. I know many people who have been abandoned by their children, but none who could proffer even the vaguest hint of why they might be to blame. Very few people intentionally set out to alienate their children, but plenty of people do it anyway.

Well we can define "having enough self awareness to acknowledge one's flaws and failings" as a precursor for "raising children well". Or more succinctly: "Narcissists don't raise children well".

Note that the entire perception of children has changed over the previous century, and the modern notion of emotionally as well as physically providing for children as a universal constant is a VERY new concept. We still haven't figured out how to do it en masse, although a decent chunk of the population seems to figure it out on their own.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#715

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah but we have money that can be stored and anyone that is old and have reserves of money will be treated and get food etc. Society doesn’t reward you based on the value you produce but based on how much fictional currency you have. This could be entirely granted to you for example in a a lottery and you never produced anything of value.

Money spoils (aka inflation) just as much as food does. To maintain the value of your money you have to actively utilize it in the economy by investing it. This is not a flaw. It is necessary to keep the economy running. Otherwise we would see Scrooge McDuck in real life.

This is why we have bank accounts and index funds.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#717

Its concerning that this article closes with the idea that "migration will become a necessity for all nations and not an option." There are multiple factors that limit population density, most important of which is access to space and clean water. The fact that a professor from London, with a population density of over 10,000 people per square kilometer [1] is advocating for continued growth is odd. [1]: https://en.w…

Yeah, I don’t see the problem here. Seems like the planet did just fine with less humans on it for quite a while. Even human history shines particularly well after broad population declines.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#718
post #345

It is disturbing that people take for granted that this is an economic problem. This thread is full of people lamenting the fact that we could support X times as many people as we do now if we all just sacrifice Y. When I look around the world today, I think the biggest resource that is lacking is economic opportunity. Huge swathes of people are desperate, angry, and depressed, I think because there is no opportunity…

> A shrinking, aging population would fix this problem. The demand for labor will go up, the supply will go down.

What leads you to believe demand for labor will rise with a shrinking population? Furthermore, why wouldn't most companies simply continue automating? While Japan certainly isn't comparable to most western nations, it's certainly a good example of the potential downsides of a shrinking, aging population. A growing one isn't possible forever, either; it will eventually level out. We've just been innovating so quickly our population hasn't had time to reach a new equilibrium.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#719
post #583

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There was this post not too long ago by lordleft which I thought was really beautiful and resonated with me. The decision to have kids is a lot like the decision to continue living. There is no logical basis for it. Or rather, any latticework of logic you erect to justify this choice is based on a foundation that has nothing to do with reason. It is an emotional and spiritual desire to live and love, and give more li…

But you do not increase the net love of the world. That’s wrong. It’s an emotional decision to be selfish and self-serving and do something that you want to do regardless of whether that child wants to exist. Nothing more. To create life is to create death and so at best neutral but not knowing the quality of that life or that death poses a serious risk that a decision to have children increases the net suffering of…

Just because you can not be absolutely certain doesn't mean it's a coin toss with both options being equally reasonable. If someone wants to stop existing, they have the power to make that happen, while the converse is not true, thus choosing to assume someone wants to exist is safer. The overwhelming majority of people want to exist and the few who don't tend to be in situations where it easily could have been foreseen that life would be problematic; if you've lived a mostly happy life for a few decades, odds are pretty good that your offspring will do the same, thus statistically choosing to bring someone into the world is far more likely to be what they want.

But going further, the idea that death negates the benefits of life is absurd. If you read a book and are sad when it ends, that means it was a good book, and you are better off for having experienced it. The ending does not annihilate the story, it completes it. And if the story should have some bad writing in it, that may be undesireable, but all the good writing is still there to be enjoyed. No matter how bad life seems to get, the good moments still happened and they can never be taken away from you. Sure we'd all like to avoid unnecessary suffering and postpone death for as long as possible, but only because we would rather fill that time with the joys of life - if you had to choose between experiencing extreme pain periodically or spending the rest of your life in an inescapable coma, you'd certainly choose the former. Non-existance is not a pleasant alternative to life, it is a fate at least as bad as death, if there is any distinction at all.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#720
post #583

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There was this post not too long ago by lordleft which I thought was really beautiful and resonated with me. The decision to have kids is a lot like the decision to continue living. There is no logical basis for it. Or rather, any latticework of logic you erect to justify this choice is based on a foundation that has nothing to do with reason. It is an emotional and spiritual desire to live and love, and give more li…

But you do not increase the net love of the world. That’s wrong. It’s an emotional decision to be selfish and self-serving and do something that you want to do regardless of whether that child wants to exist. Nothing more. To create life is to create death and so at best neutral but not knowing the quality of that life or that death poses a serious risk that a decision to have children increases the net suffering of…

First, I don't think "love" is zero sum. Second, you must be a hoot at parties.
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