The USA did not take Iran. They essentially shot off fireworks, killed the figure head and then got check mated.
The U.S. isnt checkmated, the U.S. is enforcing a naval blockade against Iran and their oil based economy is in a free fall with rapid inflation. The U.S. is experiencing slightly higher gas prices but economy is still humming. Meanwhile the U.S. military has not exhausted all of its options while Iran has none.
> The U.S. isnt checkmated, the U.S. is enforcing a naval blockade against Iran and their oil based economy is in a free fall with rapid inflation.
That's not much of an achievement for the first military in the world. That's like second military in the world struggling to take a village in Donbas region for 4 years.
At this point we should have had Ai induced apocalypse a few times according to him
I haven't read from him in a while, but I don't think there was a single dated prediction that supports your argument. Do you have any sources for this claim?
I haven't read from him in a while either - but I remember reading enough tweets from him about being confident at x% probability we'll die before year z due to an Ai doing the funny
What sorts of apps are those? I tried testing various models with a test app as a benchmark, a local first app with CRDTs, and many, even frontier models, struggle heavily.
https://mediconsulta.net an AI medical assistant https://decaboy.fit for tracking progress at they gym https://megaparley.com sports betting platform A horse betting platform not published yet, still looking for an API odds provider A car mechanic AI assistant not published yet I've learned that the more detailed the initial prompt the better result I get. I can share any prompt if you want
Makes sense, looks like mostly CRUD?
I actually was able to get the CRDT stuff working with the latest models, just had to set thinking to the maximum and also have it continually test itself in a loop via MCP without my intervention so after chugging along for an hour it seemed to have fixed everything itself.
Ok just remove "crappy" then and replace with low-quality. We can differentiate on low-quality, high-quality, and more when talking about consumer products. I'm going off of rough memory here, but don't like half of all Americans have an iPhone? Do half of all Americans own a Porsche?
Fine, if you don't like the iPhone analogy then look at Coca-Cola vs store brand Super Cola. They are both brown sugar water, but Coke is Coke. People buy Coke because of the brand, the image and (maybe a little bit) because of the taste. There is no equivalent in LLM land. AI models are not like Coke vs Other Cola. AI is like electricity or water, a generic commodity with minimal cost or friction to switching. I can…
> They are both brown sugar water,
> AI is like electricity or water, a generic commodity with minimal cost or friction to switching. I can flip the VSCode plugin between a dozen different models a day.
I don't think that's the case, and as companies continue to build out AI products we will move more into opinionated workflows and different vendor design patterns precisely because the model you suggest will result in a race to the bottom which is the opposite of the intended business model.
I don't get it either, but it seems to me a bit similar to how the US, if you look at market value of car companies, has utterly crushed Europe and Japan (with China surging ahead of those and maybe threatening the US soon), which to me sounds crazy (I still think of German cars as the top of the bunch). According to Google (AI summary, no idea if it's 100% right but from what I've seen elsewhere it seems right): Top…
Look at profit rather than revenue - "it's easy to make a lot of revenue when you're selling a dollar for 80 cents" applies just as much to big legacy automakers as it does to startups.
The traditional car makers have had a hundred years to learn how to make profit by selling cars. What evidence is there that Tesla knows something they don't and has profit margins higher than they have??
So much that millions of people risk their lives or leave their families to come to this country. By this objective metric, it's literally the best country in the world's history. Is there another country that comes close?
Migration isn't a US problem. Europe has it too. So as a country probably not, but that's also because the US is big and has a large land border to the south.
Immigration in Europe is different. Your immigration influx is not really the kind of force that will help push countries up. If anything, it is a drag. Of course I am generalizing highly, but for the most part you are bringing a new civilization that does not want to become European or help contribute to your growth. Some of your immigrants want to make you change your religion!
In fairness the same has happened in the US recently.
So much that millions of people risk their lives or leave their families to come to this country. By this objective metric, it's literally the best country in the world's history. Is there another country that comes close?
People drown in the Mediterranean every day, to live in Germany or the UK.
If those people had a choice of a free plane ticket to Germany, UK, or US, which proportion do you think each country would get?
Anthropic is the AI doomer / safetyism lab, and Hinton is one of the patron saints of 'rationalist' AI doomerism. AI doomerism is psychologically attractive to "people with autistic cognitive traits, including dichotomous (black-and-white) thinking, intolerance of uncertainty, and a tendency toward catastrophizing". They are pascal's mugging themselves, to ironically use one of their terms. It's fundamentally a cogni…
I'm reminded of a comic about global warming, "What if it's a big hoax and we create a better world for nothing?": https://climateactionreserve.org/blog/2012/08/31/environment... "What if AI doom is all fear-mongering, and we create AI less prone to make up dangerous stuff or mistake buggy goals for real ones" (which is what alignment is) "for nothing?" Even if Yudkowsky is autistic, you're muddling the condition. Au…
I have a younger family member who is AuADHD and is under AI & other doomer delusions. It's effected her life to a large negative degree at this point. It doesn't matter if Yud is autism leaning, as a movement it's far beyond him. AI doomerism and other doomerisms is Q-anon for smart, moral, austism-leaning people at this point, which is incredibly sad. Because it is something that really affects smart people mostly, you can't use the qualifications and intelligence of it's proponents as measures of it's validity, you need to look at the thought distortions directly itself. It consumes lives and it definitely can hurt people.
Anthropic, OpenAI and Google are the standouts, but the main question for me is, why is this a war? In their own context China has greatly benefitted from this. They shored up their gpu design and manufacturing expertise. If this really is a war, trump is kneecapping the country with his lawlessness and eroding America’s good will. If the world cannot trust China with their data and they cannot trust the U.S. to prov…
Because the US cannot imagine anything else. Everything is a War, and the US must always win..
Unfortunately I believe that that is how the world works - even historically has for centuries - you are either "fighting in the war" or you're left behind.