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The future of everything is lies, I guess: Where do we go from here?

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Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Where do we go from here?

#701

Post by djaro »

chungusamongus wrote: post #29
airza wrote: post #2

I agree with the general sentiment that the structure of society is going to change, but I don't know what the satisfying solution is. It's hard to imagine not participating will work, or even be financially viable for me, for long.

That's exactly it. This person does not understand the coercive competition of the market. If you don't use new tech, you are going to be undercut by people who do. And every HR dept is going to expect to to have experience with AI even if the department that’s hiring doesn't really use it. If the author's supposed solution to the problem has negative personal consequences, why would you do it? To be nice?

This is only true if the new technology is actually significantly useful. Which so far AI has not proven to be. Theres no reason to assume people using AI will, on the long term, outcompete those who don't.

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Where do we go from here?

#702

Post by koonsolo »

CJefferson wrote: post #582
abricq wrote: post #70

> ML assistance reduces our performance and persistence, and denies us both the muscle memory and deep theory-building that comes with working through a task by hand: the cultivation of what James C. Scott would call Imagine being starting university now... I can't imagine to have learned what I did at engineering school if it wasn't for all the time lost on projects, on errors. And I can't really think that I would…

I'm a professor at uni, and this is what is happening -- many students are never really learning. Then they crash into exams at the end of term when they don't have their AI, and they bomb, I'm seeing failure rates like never before. Now, part of me thinks 'is not letting students having AI like not letting them have a calculator'. On the other hand, if I just let the AI do the exam, well I don't really need the stud…

When kids learn calculation, they indeed are not allowed to use a calculator.

Same is true for your field now. When kids learn things the AI already knows, it's clear they can't use the AI.

If you want them to become smarter than the AI, they will have to pass through a period where they are dumber than the AI, and it's clear at that point they can't use it.

AI raised the bar, that's all. But it's still a bar that can be passed with human intelligence, and your job is to get them past that.

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Where do we go from here?

#703

Post by KaiserPro »

Animats wrote: post #445

"I could retrain, but my core skills—reading, thinking, and writing—are squarely in the blast radius of large language models." Yes. For the lifetime of almost everyone alive now, reading, thinking, and writing have been valued skills which moved one up in society's hierarchy. This is a historical anomaly. Prior to 1800 or so, those skills were not all that useful to the average farmer. There were more smart people t…

> those skills were not all that useful to the average farmer.

Sorry but that is just not true.

Sure farmers aren't academics, but the sheer number of tasks, and tools required to efficiently do those tasks were vast. Innovation in winnowing was literlly life and death, as was plant/animal breeding traits.

Observing and reacting to changes in plants, lands, water, animals was critical to getting a good harvest. Packing and storing food was critical to surviving the winter.

Sure, the lack of literacy hampered knowledge recording and dissemination.

BUT, if we look mine the vast memory that is classics, knowledge, wit and cleverness were prised as often as strength and beauty.

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Where do we go from here?

#704

Post by djaro »

chungusamongus wrote: post #73
throwanem wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. I'm doing it because I care more whether I can live with myself than whether I impress people with the name of who I work for. Hence much of my recent comment history here, for example. I don't want any of these people getting the idea they should want me to work with them, either. I do want my name on every industry blacklist I can possibly get it on. Those will eventually be revealed - remember Franklin's dictu…

That's nice for you but other people have kids to feed and don't particularly care about your little crusade, which will fail.

Theres no reason to assume that. Its equally likely trying to replace jobs with AI is the "little crusade" thst no one cares about and will fail.

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Where do we go from here?

#705

Post by bcjdjsndon »

dang wrote: post #249

Here are the articles in this series that got significant HN discussion (in chronological order for a change): ML promises to be profoundly weird* - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47689648 - April 2026 (602 comments) The Future of Everything Is Lies, I Guess: Part 3 – Culture - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47703528 - April 2026 (106 comments) The future of everything is lies, I guess – Part 5: Annoyance…

> Normally we downweight subsequent articles in a series because avoiding repetition of any kind is the main thing that keeps HN interesting

This is in jest right? Yesterday hn posted a paper from 1983... I regularly see 20 year old articles reposted, you've even got a section in your code of conduct arguing how you aren't Reddit despite the apparent nature of this site....

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Where do we go from here?

#706

Post by DavidPiper »

dalyons wrote: post #631
dripdry45 wrote: post #527

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have a good friend who doesn’t pay attention to any of this stuff. Nothing gets them down for long, they do pretty well with work, and just enjoy living life simply. They have amassed a reasonable amount of wealth, are moving up at their job, and just don’t pay any attention to all this stuff we here on the Internet talk about all the time. There is no AI black pill because they aren’t caught up in all the headline…

They’ll still lose their job to AI, whether they’re paying attention or not.

You don't have any idea what job they have, how good they are at it, what their company does, what industry they work in, whether their income is backed by labour, knowledge work, emotional connection, government relationships, capital investments, ...

See above.

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Where do we go from here?

#707

Post by giaour »

Animats wrote: post #445

"I could retrain, but my core skills—reading, thinking, and writing—are squarely in the blast radius of large language models." Yes. For the lifetime of almost everyone alive now, reading, thinking, and writing have been valued skills which moved one up in society's hierarchy. This is a historical anomaly. Prior to 1800 or so, those skills were not all that useful to the average farmer. There were more smart people t…

> So what was valued? Physical robustness. Strength, perhaps brutality. Competence in physical tasks. Honesty. Parentage. Birth order (see primogeniture.) Those matter in per-technological societies, and they matter in failed societies now. Those are perhaps humanity's core values.

This is a "noble savage" conception of the past. Thinking/cleverness/craftiness was highly rewarded even in preliterate societies. Even in war, "polytropos" Odysseus comes out ahead of the dumb brutes with bigger spears.

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Where do we go from here?

#708

Post by throwanem »

djaro wrote: post #704
chungusamongus wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's nice for you but other people have kids to feed and don't particularly care about your little crusade, which will fail.

Theres no reason to assume that. Its equally likely trying to replace jobs with AI is the "little crusade" thst no one cares about and will fail.

I wouldn't say no one cares about it, and I am not at all sure it will fail - nor that it should; there are better futures available from here, also.

Honestly, if I'd cottoned on quicker to the guy's real problem, I would've treated him more gently sooner. It's not quite true that an addict can't help himself, and in the place where that's false is the hope of recovery. But to blame people for getting hooked on the shit Silicon Valley is pushing, would be like blaming people for getting an opioid habit when the hardest imaginable versions of that drug were handed out like candy for decades.

Exactly like, in fact. Some people on this forum have BOP numbers waiting for them. You know who you are. In time, so will everyone.

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Where do we go from here?

#709

Post by vee-kay »

pjc50 wrote: post #496
Animats wrote: post #445

"I could retrain, but my core skills—reading, thinking, and writing—are squarely in the blast radius of large language models." Yes. For the lifetime of almost everyone alive now, reading, thinking, and writing have been valued skills which moved one up in society's hierarchy. This is a historical anomaly. Prior to 1800 or so, those skills were not all that useful to the average farmer. There were more smart people t…

> Physical robustness. Strength, perhaps brutality. Competence in physical tasks. Honesty. Parentage. Birth order (see primogeniture.) Those matter in per-technological societies, and they matter in failed societies now. Those are perhaps humanity's core values. This is really bleak to me. We can do better than primogeniture, and of course the gender discrimination that goes along with it. You might as well write tha…

[dead]

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Where do we go from here?

#710

Post by munksbeer »

joquarky wrote: post #522
munksbeer wrote: post #477

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Maybe things will turn out fine and we will just live in a similar but more depressing future Or things could turn out more than fine and we progress as we've always progressed, towards more abundance and humans in 30 years will live massively better lives than we live today, just as we live massively better lives than people at just about any previous point in history.

> more abundance This is blatantly unsustainable. > just about any previous point in history The late 1990s is an exception for most people. It sounds like things are going well for you. Be mindful of psychological projection.

> It sounds like things are going well for you. Be mindful of psychological projection.

It sounds like things might not be going well for you. I'm sorry. But be mindful of bias or seductive doomerism. The median person in the world today lives a much better life than about any previous point in history.

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