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US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

theguardian.com

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Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#701

Post by Fricken »

I told ya the Ayatollah would end up keeping the gate. Tolling all the tankers that want to pass through the straight. The US cannot game this cockamamie new Khameini. So unless you're a tankie you won't be thanking him later.

The Hegemon can make demands but can't avoid demand destruction. Steal the oil from Iran, was that the plan? Just like a child abduction? Trump doesn't have the gumption to snatch enriched uranium nor does he have the cranium to manage prices at the pump.

Never lower, always higher. Where he sees smoke, I Cease fire. For Nukes and Nikes Nixon hollered "Abandon gold for Petrodollars!" The Ayatollah is now doling Trump a lashing for his trolling. Heed Shaheeds and bleed? No need! Say "Fuck it dude" and just go bowling.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#703

Post by blitzar »

dismalaf wrote: post #605
Aloisius wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Iran's semi-official Mehr News Agency (via China's state news agency Xinhua[0]) claims the 10 points are: 1. U.S. commitment to ensure no further acts of aggression 2. Continued Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz 3. Acceptance of Iran's nuclear enrichment rights 4. Lifting of all primary sanctions 5. Lifting of all secondary sanctions 6. Termination of all United Nations Security Council resolutions against Iran…

Yeah 0% chance the US agrees to this.

The US doesn't have the cards

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#704

Post by [deleted] »

gib444 wrote: post #560
IAmGraydon wrote: post #532

The fact that so many people on this thread believe any of this is real is really a sobering reminder. The entire thing, top to bottom, is theater.

To which extent exactly? The images of destruction are faked? I know what you're saying just not sure how literally to take your words

[deleted]

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#705

Post by midtake »

mrtksn wrote: post #699
jayd16 wrote: post #595

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm no fan of this administration but another way to look at things is that the US can essentially destabilize a region while facing mild commodity price increases. Actually it shows that the US could eliminate the leadership at its leisure even if it can't hand select the replacements. I'm also not sure the powers that be in the ME hate the rising oil prices. Again, not a fan of the situation and while I think it is…

That's not a US specific strength though, anybody with the ability to strike someone with shorter range than theirs can do that. I.e. Netherland can destabilize South America through attacking Panama and its very unlikely that Netherlands will be bombed. Sure, when US Brazil etc. are pissed off enough, Netherland can just TACO like the US did. China and Russia can do the exactly same thing to Iran too and Iran won't…

This is an insane take. Why would Netherlands do this when America exists? And even if they didn't rest on their laurels and let America do it, they would not be able to establish a kill chain the way USA can, and so they would need American support. And even if they forewent the support, they would be denounced on the global stage and suffer massively economically. You are massively underestimating just how much liberty USA has to say YOLO and do whatever it wants.

Russia has established that it cannot in fact do this! That is why the two week special operation has gone on for so long.

China? It remains to be seen.

For now the best assumption is that USA is in a league of its own when it comes to imposing its will on other nations.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#706

Post by prabubio »

jayd16 wrote: post #595
holografix wrote: post #554

This is basically a win for Iran. 1. They replaced the decrepit Khameini with a much younger and more formidable Khameini. 2. “Pulled a Ukraine” vs the US showing defiance and have now rallied any wavering regime supporters against the American and Jewish “devils”. 3. Reminded the anti regime population that they’re not going anywhere and that the US can’t help them. 4. Showed everyone in the ME and the world that if…

I'm no fan of this administration but another way to look at things is that the US can essentially destabilize a region while facing mild commodity price increases. Actually it shows that the US could eliminate the leadership at its leisure even if it can't hand select the replacements. I'm also not sure the powers that be in the ME hate the rising oil prices. Again, not a fan of the situation and while I think it is…

US, in the past (eg - iraq) has shown that it can destabilize a region without any effects to the US, not even a mild price increase domestically. So this one is a big degradation from that earlier stance.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#707

Post by tristanj »

techterrier wrote: post #655
tristanj wrote: post #612

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree. Iran was about to lose. If this ceasefire had not happened, the US and Israel would bomb all of Iran's electricity and fuel facilities. That's what was supposed to happen today, and is what forced Iran to the negotiating table with an hour to spare. Without electricity, there is no modern life. There is no ability to communicate, pay salaries, run a business, have running water, etc. Without fuel, there a…

It never had any ability to prevent an indiscriminate bombing campaign, and never did. And nobody ever thought otherwise. It only ever had to prove it could keep the strait closed. Which it did. And now the americans are going away, and they can get back to hanging students from cranes. The USA has failed to achieve any of its strategic goals, and is going home, defeated.

The conflict is far from over, this ceasefire is unsustainable as neither side wants to agree to the demands of the other.

A ceasefire mostly benefits the US, since it can bring in more military assets across the globe. Ships and troops are still weeks away from arriving & being able to participate in combat operations.

A negotiated settlement is preferable to total destruction of the Iranian economy, and large destruction in the middle east, by all parties involved.

I expect the conflict to resume after two weeks, or later this year, after midterms.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#708

Post by blitzar »

samrus wrote: post #661
RiverStone wrote: post #389

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That doesn’t align with the perspective of actual Iranians I know. There are news reports of Iranian expats and opponents within Iranian who are disappointed with the ceasefire. They wanted trump to go further and destroy the regime. That aligns with conversations I’ve had with Iranians friends in the US and family members within Iran who want the regime destroyed so there is a chance of removing the Islamic theocrac…

Those people didnt lose faith in the US after it bombed a preschool? At one point you have to wonder if this is good versus evil or evil versus evil

I have a serious problem with calling 100+ schoolgirls who - at best - got instantly dismembered by a bomb and didnt suffer (too much) and at worst were crushed to death or bled out from shrapnel wounds "evil"

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#709

Post by Hikikomori »

refurb wrote: post #688
Ms-J wrote: post #596

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why isn't Iran doing more? It seems like they are pandering to the USA when they have the moral high ground.

Moral high ground? They lost it long ago when they were hanging people for being gay and sponsoring terrorist groups.

First thing is something US wants to do and they've done the other a lot.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#710

Post by throwaway_5633 »

jauco wrote: post #608
jayd16 wrote: post #595

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm no fan of this administration but another way to look at things is that the US can essentially destabilize a region while facing mild commodity price increases. Actually it shows that the US could eliminate the leadership at its leisure even if it can't hand select the replacements. I'm also not sure the powers that be in the ME hate the rising oil prices. Again, not a fan of the situation and while I think it is…

It’s not the ME countries who are profiting, because they can’t export. So it’s a net loss. (Saudi and oman win a bit, but in no comparison to the iraq kuwait loss) The winners are mostly: Russia, Iran itself and (margibally) the US. But mostly Russia.

Russia has banned the export of gasoline starting April 1st, because hits on infrastructure by Ukraine are causing internal shortages. They may be profiting in some other way but it’s unlikely through major exports.

https://m.economictimes.com/news/international/world-news/ru...

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